Tropical Storm Francine forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecast to grow into hurricane

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Francine formed Monday in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to grow into a hurricane before landfall this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In the NHC’s 11 a.m. EDT advisory, Francine was located about 245 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 480 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph moving north-northwest at 5 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 160 miles.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Barra del Tordo, Mexico north to Port Mansfield, Texas.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Cameron east to Grand Isle with a tropical storm watch in effect from Barra del Tordo, Mexico up to Port Mansfield, Texas and east of High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana and west of Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River as well as Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A storm surge watch was in effect for High Island, Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama border as well as Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain.

The system is forecast to slowly continue in a north-northwest motion toward the Texas and Mexico coast on Monday, but then shift to the northeast and pick up stream.

“On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday,” said NHC hurricane specialist Phillippe Papin. “Gradual intensification is expected over the next day withmore significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.”

The forecast predicts it to grow into a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph sustained winds and 105 mph gusts before making landfall somewhere in a cone of uncertainty that runs from the Gulf Coast northeast of Galveston, Texas over to New Orleans.

Its sideswipe of the Mexico and southern Texas coasts will bring tropical-storm conditions by Tuesday, and then hurricane conditions on the northern Gulf could begin in the watch area by Wednesday afternoon with tropical-storm conditions hitting earlier Wednesday morning.

The biggest storm surge threat could bring 5-10 feet higher levels than normal from Cameron to Port Fourcho, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay and 4-7 feet from Port Fouchon to the mouth of the Mississippi, and 3-5 feet from High Island, Texas to Cameron.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC stated. “Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”

Some minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas that see onshore winds while swells will continue to spread across the northwestern Gulf coastline through midweek.

The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Gordon and Helene.

The more likely of the two is an area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that has disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the systemmeanders over the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC stated in its 8 a.m. tropical outlook. “By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast to move westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.

The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% in the next seven.

Farther east is a trough of low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“In a couple of days, this trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave,” the NHC stated. “Thereafter, Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system moveswest-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”

The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next seven days.

Tropical Storm Francine would mark the end of a nearly monthlong lull between the formation of named storms as Ernesto, which eventually grew into a hurricane, having formed as a tropical storm on Aug. 12.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.