ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center increased the chances a tropical wave that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. forecast, the system was over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized showers and thunderstorms but expected to interact with an area of low pressure’s front boundary in the next couple of days.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% in the next seven.

The NHC was also tracking an elongated trough of low pressure stretched out over the eastern and central Atlantic with a broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity.

“A more well-defined area of low pressure may form within this region during the next few days,” forecasters said. “Some slow development of this system is possible while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.”

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had five named storms so far, but none since Hurricane Ernesto first formed on Aug. 12.

The next named storm could be Tropical Storm Francine.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 with the climatologic peak on Sept. 10.

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