Hurricane center tracking 4 systems with tropical potential

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday tracked four systems in the Caribbean and Atlantic with chances to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, none had more than low chances as conditions across the Atlantic basin remain unfavorable for the circulation needed to become cyclonic. None of the four were a threat to Florida.

The highest potential was from a tropical wave that continued to move across the Caribbean plugging along at about 20 mph still producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Caribbean.

“Some development is possible early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

In the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is another tropical wave with limited showers and thunderstorms.

“Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development by the end of the week.”

The NHC gave it only a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Farther east is a third tropical wave in the Atlantic with disorganized shower activity.

“Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts northwestward,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.

Forecasters also began tracking on Wednesday a nontropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of North Carolina with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States,” forecasters said

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.

While hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, the height of it runs from mid-August into October. Meteorologists with Colorado State University updated their forecast for the next two weeks in the wake of the limited activity.

The CSU report suspects several reasons for the why there has not been a named storm since Hurricane Ernesto dissipated three weeks ago. They include a northward-shifted monsoon trough that makes tropical waves coming off Africa farther north than normal, warm upper-level temperatures that stabilize the atmosphere and wind shear in the eastern Atlantic.

“We believe that it is likely a combination of these factors (and perhaps others) that have led to this recent quiet period,” the CSU update said. “We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September.”

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced five named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris, Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto.

The next names on the list are Francine, Gordon and Helene.

Before the lull, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s had upgraded its seasonal forecast, expecting 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

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