Hurricane center still tracking 3 systems with tropical potential

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center continued Wednesday to track three tropical waves in the Caribbean and Atlantic with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, none had more than low chances as conditions across the Atlantic basin remain unfavorable for the circulation needed to become cyclonic. None of the three are a threat to Florida.

The tropical wave that continued to move across the Caribbean was plugging along at about 20 mph still producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as well as the area to its south in the central Caribbean.

“Some development is possible late this week when the wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

In the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is another tropical wave with limited showers and thunderstorms.

“Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.”

The NHC gave it only a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

Farther east is a third tropical wave in the Atlantic with disorganized shower activity.

“Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropicalAtlantic Ocean,” forecasters said, noting it could produce heavy rain over the Cape Verde Islands on Wednesday.

The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 30% in the next seven.

While hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, the height of it runs from mid-August into October. Meteorologists with Colorado State University updated their forecast for the next two weeks in the wake of the limited activity.

The CSU report suspects several reasons for the why there has not been a named storm since Hurricane Ernesto dissipated three weeks ago. They include a northward-shifted monsoon trough that makes tropical waves coming off Africa farther north than normal, warm upper-level temperatures that stabilize the atmosphere and wind shear in the eastern Atlantic.

“We believe that it is likely a combination of these factors (and perhaps others) that have led to this recent quiet period,” the CSU update said. “We still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September.”

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced five named storms: Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris, Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto.

The next names on the list are Francine, Gordon and Helene.

Before the lull, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s had upgraded its seasonal forecast, expecting 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

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