Hurricane Center ups odds for Caribbean-bound system to develop; second system emerges

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking a second Atlantic system in addition to one with an increasing chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the central Atlantic was producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms which have become more concentrated.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles,” forecasters said. “The system is then forecast to continue moving westward to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.”

Its long-term path has it passing over the Leeward or Windward Islands and into the Caribbean, although the certainty and breadth of the storms associated with it span a large swath all the way north to Puerto Rico by the end of next week.

The NHC gives the system a 50% chance of development in the next seven days, up from 20% since the NHC began forecasting its development earlier this week.

If it were to gain enough steam to become a named storm, it would become Tropical Storm Francine.

The NHC is also tracking a newly emerging tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa that is associated with an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives the second system a 20% chance of development within the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had five named systems so far, with three forming into hurricanes, one of which grew into a major hurricane.

Some of the recent lack of development can be credited to the Saharan dust cloud that’s blown west off the African continent and stymies the chances for tropical systems to form — despite warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.

While the official hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, the height of it runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s upgraded forecast issued earlier this month calls for 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

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