It will soon be peak hurricane season. Here's what to expect in September

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Peak hurricane season is upon us in Florida, when we soon can expect an increase in storm activity during this year’s “extremely active” season.

September tends to be the busiest month for hurricanes, when we might see the most storms, says Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist with weather.com.

“Over the last 30 years, we’ve only had one September that failed to produce a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, and that was in 2013,” he said. “You can usually bet on at least one Category 3 hurricane in September, usually two, somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.”

Researchers at Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been forecasting a very active hurricane season with as many as 23 named storms, attributing these predictions to the record-warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean and reduced wind shear, all of which are ingredients for storm formation.

So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, three of which became hurricanes: Beryl, Debby and Ernesto.

Hurricane season lasts about half the year, starting in June and stretching until the end of November, with the busiest part of the season typically striking between mid-August and mid-October.

“That’s when we usually see the lion’s share of hurricanes and specifically the large majority of major hurricanes,” Erdman said. “We’re heading into that prime time of the year when we really have to pay attention to every little system out there in the Atlantic.”

“Not all storms actually threaten land. Some of those will curl out into the central Atlantic Ocean, and we wouldn’t have to worry about them.”

Steering patterns, which dictate what direction a storm will follow, are hard to predict, said Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for the Royal Caribbean Group.

Setzer called the season “unusual” so far because it began with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, but then “things quieted down a bit,” he said. The season’s current lull can be attributed to dry air from plumes of African dust have been moving into the Atlantic, which has suppressed storm activity for the last couple weeks of August, which forecasters say is a normal phenomenon.

“That’s put a lid on the potential for development, at least since Ernesto,” Erdman said.

But those suppressive conditions are slowly fading away, and Erdman said the first two weeks of September are likely to see an environment that is more supportive for storm creation.

“You’re taking that lid off the atmosphere. If you think about a pot of boiling water on the stove, you put a lid on top of it, you don’t have the steam rising. That’s kind of been the way the tropics have been recently,” he said. “Now, you start to move that lid away from that boiling pot of water and then you get the thunderstorms to form. And so that’s the type of environment we think is going to come into place sometime in September, probably early to mid-September.”

Erdman added: “This is something people should keep in mind even though it’s been quiet now. September is historically the busiest month of the year, and that’s when we can see things turn on, almost like a light switch.”

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two potential disturbances in the Atlantic, both of which have a 20% chance of developing within the next seven days, as of Wednesday afternoon.

“There’s probably more to come. I hope they all curl out to sea. That would be great. But definitely be on your guard the next few months,” Erdman said.