Ernesto is now a hurricane. How strong will it get? Where's it going? What forecast says

MIAMI — Ernesto strengthened into a hurricane in the Atlantic’s warm waters on Wednesday just north of Puerto Rico, and could be a major storm by the time it nears Bermuda later this week, forecasters say.

Ernesto, now a Category 1 hurricane, is continuing to douse Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which remain under a tropical storm warning, with flooding rain Wednesday as it pulls away and heads north over the Atlantic’s open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ernesto’s center moved over the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and was north of Puerto Rico early Wednesday, the forecast track shows. Based on Wednesday’s forecast track, the system is not a threat to Florida.

Ernesto is quickly heading northwest over the Atlantic’s open waters and is expected to make a north-northwest turn by Wednesday night. While Ernesto is moving over steamy waters, a prime ingredient that helps hurricanes grow stronger, there’s some uncertainty over how strong the system will be once it nears Bermuda due to “bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days,” the hurricane center said.

“That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we’ll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.”

The forecast track shows Ernesto briefly strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane on Friday while it’s over the open water, heading to Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds topping 115 mph. But its Cat 3 status is expected to be short-lived. The forecast shows Ernesto will weaken into a Cat 2 with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph by the time it nears Bermuda early Saturday.

“Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said. “A hurricane watch may be required later today.”

A “deep-layer trough” off the U.S. east coast is expected to reduce Ernesto’s speed as it passes Bermuda this weekend, forecasters said. Afterward, another trough that’s expected to move across the eastern U.S. is expected to help Ernesto pick up speed and “accelerate” it north over the waters south of Atlantic Canada, according to the hurricane center.

Here’s what else to know:

Where is Ernesto now?

The storm was about 175 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Wednesday morning, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from its center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 230 miles.

What weather is Ernesto bringing?

Forecasters expect tropical storm conditions will continue for the next several hours over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques. More than 500,000 homes and businesses had lost power in Puerto Rico, according to the Weather Channel.

“Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico,” the hurricane center said.

Ernesto has dumped up to 10 inches of rain across eastern Puerto Rico and more rain is expected, with up to six inches of new rain possible, the National Weather Service in San Juan said Wednesday morning on X.

“By the time it’s all said and done, close to a foot or more of total rain is possible for parts of Puerto Rico and flash flooding with dangerous mudslides and landslides in higher terrain will be ongoing threats today,” Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local10, wrote in his “Eye on the Tropics” newsletter Wednesday. “Treacherous marine conditions with seas topping 10 feet and dangerous, life-threatening surf will persist for much of the day.”

“Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards,” the hurricane center said. “Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days.”

Is your Puerto Rico flight delayed?

More than 100 flights were canceled in the last 24 hours at Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, the largest airport in Puerto Rico, according to FlightAware.

FlightAware data shows that 47 flights, or about 25% of flights that were set to depart from the airport were canceled and 44 flights, or 23% were delayed, as of noon Wednesday. For arrivals, 37 flights, or 19% of flights that were scheduled to arrive at the airport were canceled and 39 flights, or 20%, were delayed.

Check with your airline for flight status and updates.

Hurricane Ernesto’s Watches/Warnings

▪ A tropical storm warningremains in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the Virgin Islands. The hurricane watch for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, and the Virgin Islands was discontinued Wednesday morning.

▪ A flood watch remains in effect through at least Thursday morning for parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Parts of Puerto Rico are also under a flash flood warning until at least 2 p.m. Wednesday.