Hurricane watches issued across Caribbean ahead of Tropical Storm Ernesto

MIAMI — Hurricane watches were issued across the Caribbean on Tuesday ahead of a stronger Tropical Storm Ernesto, including for the Virgin Islands and two islands that are part of Puerto Rico.

Ernesto has continued to strengthen while passing near or over islands in the eastern Caribbean Sea as it treks west over warm water toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center.

While the storm has slowed slightly, it’s still moving quickly west-northwest, with the center expected to pass near or over the Virgin Islands Tuesday evening and pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night through Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center expects Ernesto could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours when the storm center is north of Puerto Rico, but “because there is some risk of the storm becoming a hurricane before that time, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques.”

The forecast track shows Ernesto strengthening into a hurricane by early Wednesday once it’s in the Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico. Ernesto is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda this weekend.

“Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda later this week, and interest there should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.

Based on Tuesday’s forecast track, the system is not a threat to Florida.

When will Puerto Rico and the other islands Caribbean feel Ernesto? And what type of hazards will the storm bring?

Here’s what to know:

Where is Tropical Storm Ernesto now?

▪ Ernesto passed just south of St. Kitts and Nevis in the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday and was quickly heading west-northwest, with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center. It passed near or over Guadeloupe and Montserrat earlier in the day.

▪ The storm was about 85 miles east of St. Croix and about 175 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles from its center.

When will Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands feel Ernesto?

The hurricane center expects Ernesto will be a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds forecast to be near 65 mph once it nears Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night. To be a Category 1 hurricane, Ernesto would need maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph.

Forecasters say the islands will feel Ernesto’s tropical storm conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible for the Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques. The forecast calls for flooding rain and gusty winds, with a risk for flash flooding, mudslides and storm surge.

Mainland Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands remain under a tropical storm warning, with parts of the islands under a flood watch through Thursday morning. The Virgin islands, and Vieques and Cluebra, two islands that are part of Puerto Rico, are also under a hurricane watch. The tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda and Guadeloupe was discontinued Tuesday afternoon.

“Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the Leeward Islands today and spread westward to the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight,” the hurricane center said Tuesday. “Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques this evening and tonight.”

The heaviest rain is expected to occur Tuesday afternoon through the night, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, with tropical storm sustained winds “expected across most of the eastern side of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and all the U.S. Virgin islands.”

After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to start turning north Wednesday into the Atlantic’s open waters. This is where the hurricane center expects the system will strengthen into a hurricane. The forecast calls for a powerful Category 2 hurricane by the time Ernesto nears Bermuda this weekend.

“It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.

What type of weather will Ernesto bring?

The hurricane center expects Ernesto will bring the following weather conditions:

Flooding rain: The system is forecast to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and over portions of the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica. Southeastern Puerto Rico is expected to see 6 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches. Northwestern Puerto Rico could see 2 to 4 inches of rain. “Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday,” according to the hurricane center.

Gusty winds: Ernesto’s tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles from its center. Tropical storm conditions began Tuesday morning in the warning area for the Leeward Islands, with tropical storm conditions forecast to spread over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions will also be possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra late Tuesday.

Storm surge: “Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix,” according to the hurricane center. “A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.” Storm surge is one of the most dangerous parts of a storm.

Life-threatening surf and rip current: Ernesto’s swells are affecting parts of Leeward and Virgin Islands and are expected to spread west to Puerto Rico later Tuesday. Swells are expected to reach the Dominican Republic Tuesday night, and will reach Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas Wednesday, and Bermuda Thursday. The U.S. east coast will likely see dangerous surf and rip current conditions Friday through the weekend, according to the hurricane center.

Watches/Warnings

▪ A hurricane watch is in effect for U.S. and British Virgin islands, Vieques and Culebra

▪ A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, U.S. and British Virgin islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and Sint Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

▪ A flood watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from 6 p.m. Tuesday through at least Thursday morning.