When will Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands feel Tropical Storm Ernesto? Follow the track

MIAMI — Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are under a tropical storm warning and flash flood watch ahead of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is forecast to bring stormy conditions starting late Tuesday.

Ernesto slightly strengthened Tuesday morning as it moved across a group of islands in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and is expected to near or be over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters expect the islands, which are under a tropical storm warning, will feel Ernesto’s stormy conditions through Wednesday. The forecast calls for flooding rain and gusty winds, with a risk for flash flooding, mud slides and storm surge.

After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to start turning north Wednesday into the western Atlantic’s open waters. This is where the hurricane center expects the system will strengthen into a powerful Category 2 hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda this weekend.

“It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.

Based on Tuesday’s forecast track, the system is not a threat to Florida.

When will Puerto Rico and the other islands Caribbean feel Ernesto? And what type of hazards will the storm bring?

Here’s what to know:

When will Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands feel Tropical Storm Ernesto?

Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday through Wednesday. The main hazards for Puerto Rico and the U.S. British Virgin Islands will be heavy rain and strong gusty winds, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Where is Ernesto now and how strong is it?

Ernesto was about 35 miles northwest of Guadeloupe, an island in the eastern Caribbean Sea and about 300 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, early Tuesday, according to the hurricane center.

NOAA hurricane hunter data shows that the storm had slightly strengthened Tuesday morning as it moved quickly west across the Lesser Antilles with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center. The storm is expected to be near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

Forecasters expect Ernesto will see some gradual strengthening during the next few days and eventually strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday once it’s in the western Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico.

What type of weather will Ernesto bring?

The hurricane center expects Ernesto will bring the following weather conditions:

Flooding rain: The system is forecast to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible, with some areas seeing up to 10 inches of rain, according to the hurricane center. Eastern Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, could see 2 to 4 inches of rain through Friday morning. The Windward islands could see 1 to 4 inches of rain. “Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday,” according to the hurricane center.

Gusty winds: Ernesto’s tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles from its center. Tropical storm conditions began Tuesday morning in the warning area for the Leeward Islands, with tropical storm conditions forecast to spread over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

Storm surge: “1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix,” according to the hurricane center. “A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.” Storm surge is one of the most dangerous parts of a storm.

Life-threatening surf and rip current: Ernesto’s swells are affecting parts of the Leeward and Virgin islands and are expected to spread west to Puerto Rico later Tuesday. Swells are expected to reach the Dominican Republic Tuesday night, and will reach Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas Wednesday, and Bermuda Thursday. The U.S. east coast will likely see dangerous surf and rip current conditions Friday through the weekend, according to the hurricane center.

Watches and warnings

▪ A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, U.S. and British Virgin islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten.

▪ Flash flood watch in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin islands from Tuesday evening through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico.