FORT WORTH, Texas — A new report on the future of extreme weather in Texas says the state is in store for hotter temperatures, increased severity of droughts and growing wildfire risks.

The report from John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist at Texas A&M University, is an updated 2024 version from his original 2021 report titled, “Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036.”

Nielsen-Gammon crafted the report in collaboration with Texas 2036, a non-partisan nonprofit focusing on the future of the state. In 2036, Texas will turn 200 and the group aims to provide long-term, data-driven strategies for the state to prosper for another few centuries.

“These trends represent climatological expectations,” Nielsen-Gammon said in the report. “The actual weather from year to year and decade to decade will be heavily influenced by natural variability which at this point is largely unpredictable.”

The extreme weather report takes aim at everything from hotter temperatures, to increased wildfire risks. These are climate factors that Texans dread — combining unbearable heat with sparking deadly fires. An earlier study even found that Texas is on track to see 125-degree days within 30 years. In 2022, MedStar reported a 115.6% increase in emergency calls because of the heat compared to the previous year.

Since Texas cities placed protections on workers during extremely hot days, instances of heat illnesses have dropped across the stare.

Here’s what we know:

Warmer temperatures are on the horizon for Texas

The average annual surface temperature in Texas by 2036 is expected to be several degrees warmer than in years past.

Temperatures in 2036 are expected to be 3 degrees warmer than the average from 1950-1999, and 1.6 degrees warmer than the average from 1991-2020.

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