Yemen-based Houthis — the last of Iran-backed groups still fully present in the regional war that began 14 months ago — are slowly escalating attacks on Israel with an eye to avoid full-out retaliation.

With Hamas on the ropes after losing much of its forces in Gaza since the conflict began in October 2023 and Hezbollah in an official truce, Houthis are the only ones shelling Israel, although from some 2,000 kilometers away.

Israelis view the nature of those attacks — most took place in the early hours of the night over the past week — as evidence that the rebel group is trying to inflict fatigue while keeping a cap on the confrontation.

“We are witnessing escalation management by the Houthis,” said Uzi Rubin, an architect of Israel’s air defenses and veteran Defense Ministry adviser. “They vowed to attack Tel Aviv because we attacked Sanaa, but they are not yet ready to inflict major civilian casualties. Pre-dawn strikes mean people aren’t out and about.”

The equilibrium may be difficult to maintain. Of four “Palestine-2” ballistic missiles launched at Tel Aviv over the last week, Israel said it shot down three, while one exploded in a vacant playground, shattering the windows of homes and injuring three people.

Perhaps more disruptive for Israelis is the fact that hundreds of thousands of people rush to shelters each time sirens sound throughout Israel’s main population center. That’s a precaution not just against direct impacts but also the shower of debris from high-altitude interceptions. A school building hit in one overnight attack was demolished when part of a Houthi missile warhead landed on it.

In response to earlier attacks, Israel twice bombed the Hodeidah port, a key source of income and a conduit for imported goods for Houthis. On Thursday, Houthi-affiliated media said Israeli air strikes hit rebel targets in the capital, Sanaa, including the airport and a power station. Israel did not immediately confirm what would be its second attack on Sanaa since last week.

The U.S. and U.K. have also attacked the militia.

In statements on the launches, Houthis have pledged to keep battling Israel until an end to the war in Gaza, which began last year following surprise raids by Hamas into southern Israel. Houthis, like other Tehran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah, are designated as terrorists by the U.S.

They have attacked countless ships in the Red Sea and Israel’s port of Eilat in solidarity with Hamas over the past 14 months. In recent strikes, Houthis claimed to be aiming for military installations in Tel Aviv — a relatively new target for the group.

The responses of ordinary Israelis have ranged from jittery to jocular. A TV show interviewed experts about the dangers of sleep deprivation. In parliament, a lawmaker reassured her son by phone that she would be there to hug him in the middle of the night, a conversation caught by the podium microphone. A popular social-media meme flayed the Houthis for disrupting couples’ intimacy.

“We have long seen that our enemies use our own alert system as a form of psychological pressure against us. Here that works on a large scale,” Rubin said.

Doron Hadar, a former commander of the Israeli military’s Crisis Management Unit, which runs simulations of enemy capabilities and doctrines, also saw a bid to chafe nerves.

“They’re trying to drive us nuts, while keeping below a certain threshold in this conflict,” said Hadar, who now heads Critical Impact, a private consultancy. “Iran isn’t in a rush to put its Yemeni branch’s head on the block quite yet.”

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With assistance from Kateryna Kadabashy.

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