Luigi Mangione's defense to hinge on mindset, emotion, evidence

Video. Fingerprints. A weapon. A manifesto. A plan.

Police claim that they have accumulated overwhelming evidence that Luigi Mangione fatally shot UnitedHealth Group Inc. executive Brian Thompson, on a midtown Manhattan sidewalk in an early morning killing that reverberated across the U.S.

Mangione, 26, was arrested Dec. 9 in Altoona, Pennsylvania, ending a five-day manhunt. While the former software engineer sits in a nearby jail, fighting extradition to New York — a fight that he could soon give up — he hired high-powered New York defense attorney Karen Friedman Agnifilo to represent him.

Friedman Agnifilo and her legal team will have their work cut out for them.

Video showed a person matching Mangione’s description in New York before and after the Dec. 4 shooting, which was also captured by a security camera. The New York Police Department said investigators have matched Mangione’s fingerprints to evidence found near the scene, and that three shell casings they recovered match a ghost gun Mangione had when he was arrested.

At the time of his arrest, Mangione showed police a fake ID that New York authorities say was used by the suspect to check in at an Upper West Side hostel. And Mangione was carrying a manifesto decrying the health-care industry and a notebook discussing the targeted killing of a CEO.

Some former prosecutors said the case is exactly the kind they hope for.

“I tried much weaker cases than what this appears to be and won,” said Ken Taub, who prosecuted dozens of homicide cases in Brooklyn, New York. “I would love to have a case like this.”

Mangione is presumed innocent — like anyone else accused of a crime in the U.S. If he goes to trial, prosecutors will have to convince 12 jurors beyond a reasonable doubt that he is guilty.

That could be more difficult than it seems. Friedman Agnifilo could attack the evidence on multiple fronts. An insanity plea is also possible. And in a case that has churned up immense publicity and strong emotions, it may be hard to find jurors who can set their personal feelings aside.

A relative of Mangione who posted a statement from the family following Luigi’s arrest didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Mangione’s family posted a statement following the arrest, saying they were “shocked and devastated” by the news. A relative didn’t respond to a request for comment on Mangione’s New York lawyer and the defense case they may raise.

Friedman Agnifilo can’t fully inspect the evidence until Mangione is indicted in New York. At a news conference Friday, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg alluded to the potential of Mangione waiving extradition, which would speed up his return. No extradition hearing had been scheduled as of Friday, a spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania courts said.

Insanity defense

Before the shooting, Mangione was on a glidepath to success. He was his class valedictorian at a prestigious prep school, held two degrees from the University of Pennsylvania, and worked as a data engineer at TrueCar Inc.

Earlier this year, however, he reportedly withdrew from contact with family and friends, fueling speculation during intense media coverage about his mental health.

Under New York law, Friedman Agnifilo could argue her client had a “mental disease or defect,” meaning the defense team would seek to prove Mangione didn’t understand the nature and consequences of his actions.

Indeed, Friedman Agnifilo suggested such a defense before she was hired to represent him.

“It looks to me like there might be a not guilty by reason of insanity defense that they’re going to be thinking about because the evidence is going to be so overwhelming that he did what he did,” Friedman Agnifilo told CNN.

Friedman Agnifilo declined a Bloomberg interview request.

Such a defense, if a judge allows it, would require an evaluation of Mangione by an independent psychiatrist to determine if he’s fit to stand trial.

Yet Gary Galperin, who spent more than 40 years as a prosecutor in the Manhattan District Attorney’s office, said that defense is unlikely to succeed.

“Clearly, he knew what he was doing,” Galperin said. “He knew a gun could discharge a bullet that could kill, and he knew it was wrong, because he fled the jurisdiction and he tried to conceal his identity.”

Once Mangione reaches New York, Friedman Agnifilo could argue that some or all of the evidence was improperly collected, violates his rights or is irrelevant.

None of the evidence that police have touted so far has had to withstand court scrutiny, said attorney Susan J. Walsh. “What is tantalizing sometimes to the public is not necessarily the truth,” she said.

Picking a jury

Each side would also seek to shape a jury to its benefit. Friedman Agnifilo is likely to look for jurors who are skeptical of the police and prosecutors, are sympathetic to a promising young defendant or indicate that they are open to or share his grievances about the health-care industry.

“Culture, politics, outside influences, and attitudes always influence the jury, no matter what,” Walsh said.

Taub, the former prosecutor, said that the case “is going to be won” on jury selection. He said posts on social media expressing disdain for the deceased executive’s perceived role in the U.S. health-care system suggest the defense could be able to find jurors who are disinclined to convict.

Prosecutors are likely to push back on any effort to paint Mangione as a righteous vigilante. Under New York law, a defendant is not permitted to put forth a defense that attempts to appeal to bias or aversion to the health-insurance industry, Galperin said.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, the state’s former attorney general, warned against celebrating Mangione.

“Hear me on this,” Shapiro said. “He is no hero.”

Potential plea

Friedman Agnifilo will assess the strength of the prosecution’s case and weigh his appetite for a trial, before exploring a possible guilty plea.

One factor that could motivate Mangione to agree to a deal is the prospect of spending less time in prison. Mangione has been charged with second-degree murder, which carries a maximum prison term of 25 years to life.

Mangione could be offered a lesser term if he pleads guilty, though prosecutors likely wouldn’t offer much leniency, Galperin said.

“Given the cold-blooded and very deliberate nature of all of this and the malicious intent behind it all, I don’t see this as a plea to anything other than murder,” he said.

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