Yoon's fall gives nemesis surprise path back to lead South Korea

The impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is giving his biggest political rival, Lee Jae-myung, a chance to finally take the top role in running the country.

Opposition leader Lee has emerged as the most likely replacement for Yoon, who was stripped of his powers as head of state on Saturday after some of his own supporters broke ranks, giving his opponents the two-thirds majority needed to pass the impeachment bill.

It’s a dramatic turn of events for Lee, whose ambitions of leading the nation seemed all but over last month, when he received a suspended jail sentence for breaking electoral law — a ruling that could bar him from seeking office for years if his appeal is rejected. The seasoned labor activist has a history of bouncing back from challenges that include corruption allegations, a hunger strike, a factory injury and even being stabbed. He’s been compared to Bernie Sanders for his ideals and Donald Trump for his populist style.

“Yoon’s own-goal has brought Lee back to life,” said Choi Young Jun, a public policy professor at Yonsei University. “Lee is the strongest candidate without a question to replace Yoon and will try to look the part as he prepares to run.”

Lee has appealed the ruling against him, which may buy him enough time to contest a snap presidential election. That vote can only happen once the Constitutional Court decides whether Yoon’s impeachment is valid, a process that could take weeks or even months.

Lee’s lifeline to power came about after Yoon shocked the world by suddenly declaring martial law on Dec. 3, the first such move in South Korea for about four decades. Yoon sent special forces by helicopter to storm the National Assembly, accusing his political foes of “anti-state” activities, and proclaimed a crackdown on a “den of criminals.”

Some 190 lawmakers rushed to the parliament building and unanimously voted to block the decree. Even Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s People Power Party and a potential presidential rival to Lee, told the troops to disobey and retreat. The martial law ended after six hours.

The move angered millions of South Koreans who prided themselves on having built one of the world’s most robust democracies through years of bloody mass protests against decades of military rule.

It’s that pro-democracy sentiment that Lee will tap into if he runs for president again. He narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, in the closest race in South Korea’s history. This time, he may portray himself as a more moderate leader to appeal to voters from Yoon’s conservative camp, Choi said.

Surveys suggest Lee would easily win if the election were held today. An Embrain Public poll from Dec. 10 put his approval rating at 37%, while PPP leader Han received just 7%.

Raised in a working-class family, Lee worked in a factory as a teenager, where an accident caused his left arm to remain twisted to this day after it was pressed under a machine.

He entered politics in 2005 and became mayor of Seongnam in 2010, where he’s known for shutting down dog-slaughtering facilities and boosting social welfare. His policies such as free school uniforms and lunches helped him win a second term, while also drawing criticism for pandering to populist sentiment.

In a 2016 interview, Lee described himself as a humble servant carrying out the will of the people. He led a campaign to oust then-President Park Geun-hye that year, and ran unsuccessfully against Moon Jae-in for the Democratic Party’s nomination in the 2017 presidential race to replace Park.

Despite his humble background, Lee has often been compared to Trump. Both share a disdain for political elites and have survived assassination attempts. Lee was stabbed in the neck by an attacker in January this year.

He frequently turns to social media to communicate with his supporters and criticize his opponents. On the night of Dec. 3, he live-streamed himself leaping over a wall to enter the National Assembly.

Lee likens himself to Sanders, the progressive senator who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for U.S. president in 2016 and 2020. Lee has criticized income disparity and pushed for South Korea to become Asia’s first country to introduce universal basic income.

On foreign policy, Lee’s likely to pursue a more conciliatory line with North Korea and push for more balanced ties with both the U.S. and China. He has toned down his stance on Japan, after accusing it of showing too little contrition for occupying Korea in the early 20th century.

“A good relationship is when you respect each other, understand each other, and find ways to benefit each other,” he said about the prospect of meeting with Japanese leaders, in an interview earlier this month. “Meeting a lot in a predatory relationship does not make it a good relationship.”

Lee staged a 24-day hunger strike last year to protest Yoon’s policies, including the latter’s support for Japan’s plan to release treated radioactive water from Fukushima into the ocean. It was the longest hunger strike by an opposition leader since 1983.

What happens next for Lee depends on South Korea’s impeachment procedure. The constitutional judges have 180 days to deliver their verdict on Yoon’s removal from office. In a similar case in 2017, it took them 91 days to finalize the ouster of Park. If the court does rule against Yoon, a presidential election must follow within 60 days.

If elected, Lee would be exempted from criminal prosecution while in office, unless he committed treason or an activity that threatens national security by collaborating with foreign enemies.

Lee accuses Yoon of treason. On Saturday, after the vote, he celebrated the impeachment as he spoke to the large crowd gathered in freezing temperatures outside the National Assembly.

“We must continue to fight together to ensure that swift and stern accountability and the ouster of Yoon is achieved in the shortest possible time,” Lee said.

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