When Donald Trump hosts a rally in Coachella, California, on Saturday, he’s likely to highlight what he calls the state’s unusually high cost of living.

In its announcement of the rally, his campaign cited several statistics it said illustrate how Californians have been battered by a rough economy since President Joe Biden took office.

The Trump campaign pointed to the nation’s highest gasoline prices, the second-highest unemployment rate and a spike in housing prices.

The data are largely correct. But there are qualifiers, other numbers that suggest the impact of inflation is less severe than the Trump campaign claims. And many economists say blaming Biden and Harris for higher prices is misleading if not wholly inaccurate.

California is highly unlikely to give Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, a win on election day. In his two previous White House runs, he’s received 34% in 2020 and 33% in 2016. Polls show him at about the same levels now.

Trump, though, can use the Saturday appearance in the state to highlight a major theme of his campaign: that the economy has struggled under Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ presidential nominee.

“Under Kamala Harris and her dangerous Democrat allies like Tim Walz, the notorious “California Dream” has turned into a nightmare for everyday Americans,” the Trump campaign said in a statement this week.

Here’s a look at their statements in their announcement of the Coachella rally.

Inflation

“Since Harris and Biden took office, prices have skyrocketed by nearly 20%, leaving Californians grappling with crushing costs.,” the campaign said.

That figure is correct. Compare the January 2021 average, the last month of the Trump administration, with the August 2024 average, and the increase in overall prices in the state has been 19.6%, according to calculations by Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast.

However, Chris Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, pointed out that the average weekly wage in California during the same period went up 16.5%, not that different from the surge in prices.

And, he said, as prices go up, people tend to buy more relatively lower priced items, offsetting some of the overall price impact.

Housing

”The median sales price of a home in California has surged by 23% under Harris’ watch, pricing out middle-class California families. In cities like San Diego, where the average home now exceeds $1 million,” the campaign said.

Those numbers are generally accurate. The median price of a single family California home in January 2021 was $700,150, according to the California Association of Realtors. In August, it was $888,740, roughly a 26% increase. The median price in San Diego County in August was $1.01 million.

Interest rates, though, have gone up and down during the Biden years, affecting what a buyer may pay..

The average on a fixed rate 30-year mortgage loan when Biden took office was 2.77%. It jumped as high as 7.79% last fall, but last week was down to 6.12%, according to Freddie Mac, which tracks interest rates.

Gasoline

”And let’s not forget the surging gas prices squeezing Californians at the pump. Residents are paying $4.66 per gallon on average, with 2022 gas prices setting new record highs.,” the campaign said.

Thursday’s average for a gallon of regular gasoline in California was $4.67 a gallon, according to AAA. In Sacramento County, Thursday’s average was $4.73. Nationally, the average was $3.21. The California price peaked at $6.44 a gallon in June 2 2022.

Jobs

”Thanks to the Green New Scam policies of Harris, Biden, and (California Gov. Gavin) Newsom. California also boasts the second-highest unemployment rate in the nation, further proof that Democrats like Harris are driving the state into the ground.,” the campaign said..

California in August tied with Illinois for the nation’s second highest unemployment rate at 5.3%. Nevada was first at 5.5%.

The Green New Deal was an ambitious plan proposed by liberal Democrats to combat climate change. As a U.S. senator in 2019, Harris was an original cosponsor of the legislation. Republicans blasted the package as overly intrusive government policy, and the plan struggled.

The UCLA Anderson forecast released last week cited several factors for California’s unemployment rate, none directly tied to a Green New Deal. Among the reasons for higher unemployment were a sluggish technology sector and unusual winter weather in some rural areas.

Economists differ on how much if at all the policies of Biden and Harris, or that matter any president, as a major factor in inflation.

Schniepp said the Biden American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion Covid relief measure that became law in March 2021, did pump more money into the economy, and had an impact on prices.

Others disagreed.

They contend there were other factors at work, such as the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on oil prices an Covid-related supply shortages.

“I don’t think the Biden administration has much to do with the high inflation we’ve suffered over the past several years. There’s a long list of reasons, and if it makes it to the list, it’s at the bottom,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has told The Bee..

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