Bay Area school enrollment plunges as families flee high-cost region

Bay Area schools have experienced the third largest decline in student enrollment in California over the past 10 years, as families left high-cost coastal areas for more affordable inland cities and states, new data shows. The region is expected to see an even larger loss over the next 10 years.

Data from the state’s Department of Education, released last month, shows school enrollment throughout California dropped by nearly 15,000 students for the 2023-24 school year, marking the seventh consecutive year of statewide declines.

Measured over the last 10 years, enrollment in Bay Area schools fell 8%, trailing only the Los Angeles and Sierra regions in the percentage of student losses, according to an analysis of the data by the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonprofit think tank based in San Francisco.

“What we saw happening during the pandemic and what we continue to see is that people migrated away from the really high-cost areas into places in California or outside of California that are more affordable,” said Heather Hough, executive director of the Policy Analysis for California Education, an independent, nonpartisan research center based at Stanford University known as PACE. “We’re continuing to see growth in those inland places, which historically have been more affordable.”

Data from the state education department and demographic projections from the state indicate the region by 2033 will see an even larger loss, a 14% drop from current enrollment — bigger than the state’s projected 12% decline.

The findings spell more pain for local school districts. Several Bay Area districts, including San Francisco Unified, Oakland Unified and San Jose’s Alum Rock, have already had to discuss merging or closing schools due to declining enrollment, limited resources and hefty budget deficits.

The Public Policy Institute analysis indicates that Santa Clara County experienced the largest drop in Bay Area school enrollment in the last 10 years, with a 15% decline, and is expected to drop an additional 18% by 2033.

San Francisco County experienced a 3% decline in the last 10 years but is expected to drop 16% by 2033. But Solano County, which saw a 6% drop since 2013, is expected to improve slightly with only a 3% decline over the next 10 years.

California leaders and experts said the statewide drop in student enrollment was less than projected and reflects a return to slower, prepandemic declines. The state’s Department of Finance had initially projected a loss of about 41,000 students.

“In the past few years, we’ve seen enrollment declines that have been — especially around COVID — worse than projected,” said Julien Lafortune, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute, who analyzed enrollment trends with the institute’s policy director, Laura Hill. “It’s kind of a return to what was a more normal period where big demographic factors are what’s driving enrollment trends and away from the movements around the pandemic.”

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