Again, this is not Mike Madrid saying it. This is one of the most progressive Democratic Latinos representing the most Latino district in the state. His own research was saying it was 25% 15 years ago, when we were much more of an immigrant and naturalized constituency.

Today that number has probably dropped to 17%, 15%, maybe. Let’s just say it’s stayed the same; it’s still far lower than where one or two Democratic firms that are really influencing the narrative here are polling at. Ask any credible pollster.

We’ve interviewed Latino pollsters in the Democratic Party, and most of them say that if you have 15-17% Spanish-language interviews, you’ll have a credible baseline standard. I would agree, and I wouldn’t even mind erring by another 3 to 4% — going to maybe 20%, which is high.

But some of these firms — and when I say some, I mean one or two — are polling with 35% Spanish-language interviews. And, no surprise, their results are very, very skewed towards more immigration-related issues, more skewed towards issues that affect the recently naturalized.

That direction is exactly the opposite of where the Latino electorate is going quickly, rapidly, measurably, and by very, very big numbers. The Democratic Party has been left in the exact opposite direction of where they should be going. And this is all demonstrable.

Q. Let’s talk about Donald Trump. We have a presidential election in a little over four months, and he’s one of the candidates. A portion of your book also focuses on the work you did with the Lincoln Project to prevent him from winning in 2020. How do you think he’s going to fare this time around with Latino voters?

A. That’s a really tough question. I don’t mean to dodge it. That’s a little unfair because I don’t have the access to the data and analytics that I’ve had for the past 30 years by working on a campaign.

But what I will say is this: All of the data — all of the publicly available data — is showing higher levels of support for Trump than any Republican candidate since I was involved with independent efforts with George W. Bush in 2004.

This is not a prediction. It’s equally as plausible that Trump could get 27% of the Latino vote as it is that he could get 45%. That’s all dependent, I think, on what the Democrats do and if they can make the adjustments. And that’s why I’m ringing the alarm bells here before they run out of time to fix this problem.

If the election were held today, I believe Donald Trump would get more than the 37% of Latino votes that he got in 2020. I think he would get about 40-42%. Which, by the way, is enough. Everything else being equal, he would win Arizona. He would win Nevada. He would win Georgia. He would win Wisconsin.

Q. And at least three of those states have significant Latino populations.

A. All of them do! There’s more Latino voters in Wisconsin than Black voters now.

Q. Oh, really?

A. Oh yeah. Georgia’s share is a little bit smaller, but it’s still about 50,000 voters in a race that was won by 30,000 votes last time. But Wisconsin, as a percentage, has more Latinos than Georgia. In every one of the swing states, the number of Latino voters is bigger than the 2020 margin of victory.

For 30 years, I’ve been asked this question by all types of reporters: “Are Latinos going to be the decisive vote in this election?” I said no. In 2024, for the first time in my career, I’m saying yes — Latinos will be the decisive vote.

They will determine the outcome of Nevada. They will determine the outcome of Arizona. They will determine the outcome of Wisconsin. They will likely determine the outcome of Georgia and will absolutely determine the outcome of North Carolina.

Q. What can the Democrats do between now and November to shore up the Latino vote, to prevent Trump from getting 40-42% of their votes?

A. Two things. The first is [that] if Biden went to the Rose Garden today and announced a Latino Marshall Plan for housing to dramatically stimulate the home construction space, you would see those numbers start dropping immediately for Trump.

One in 5 Hispanic men work in residential construction or a related field. Interest rates have tripled in the last four or five years. Tripled. Since the Trump era, the currency has devalued by 20% because of inflation in the last five years. You cannot tell me that a U.S.-born, English-speaking Latino construction worker is better off now than he was during the Trump administration. You can’t credibly say that.

I don’t care where the Dow is at. I don’t care what the GDP growth is. I don’t care what employment numbers are. One in 5 Hispanic men — 20% of our men — work in the residential construction industry or a related field, [as a] Realtor or mortgage broker. All of that has contracted. It is completely shut down. That means Latino construction workers not only can’t build housing and put food on the table, but they also can’t buy their first homes, which are already way overpriced because supplies are screwed up.

So when you ask me, what could they do tomorrow? That’s the first thing I would do. Literally tomorrow, do that and those numbers would come back into a more historical range. Would it fix the whole problem? No. Could it make the race a hell of a lot more advantageous for Biden? 100%.

The second is — here’s what I really don’t get — Joe Biden is drilling more oil than Sarah Palin’s greatest fantasy; why aren’t they taking credit for it? Because they’re afraid of their left flank. They think that they are going to leave them, but they’re not going to.

You know that, right? That we’re producing more domestic oil than at any time in the history of this country?

Q. No, but I’m not surprised.

A. Yeah! Why is he not talking about that? Would that help in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas? Of course it would. Would it help in southern New Mexico and California’s Central Valley? Of course it would. Is it going to get him 20 or 30 points? No. Will it get him 4 or 5%? It will, 100%.

So start talking about that part instead of “Build Back Better” and Bidenomics. Oh, yeah, we’ve got money for infrastructure to build bridges in 2045, but that means nothing to working-class people.

Go in and do something and talk about your domestic energy policy. You’re doing it, so take credit for it. At least get some upside for it.

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