San Diego County was on track for its lowest-ever home sale year as mortgage rates and prices stayed high to end the year.

Through November, CoreLogic data shows 25,998 home sales. At that sales pace and with interest rates near 7% at the end of December, 2024 could take the crown for slowest year from 2023, which recorded 26,906 sales, data dating to 1988 shows.

A rise in interest rates typically means sales prices would go down but that hasn’t happened in most U.S. markets. In San Diego County, the median home price was $888,000 in November, a rise of 4.5% in a year.

Mark Goldman, a real estate analyst with C2 Financial Corp., said the same issue has kept the real estate market slower than molasses for two years: Homeowners would trade much lower mortgage rates to higher ones if they moved. He said the major reasons for selling now are deaths or getting a new job outside of San Diego County.

“If you are going to move,” Goldman said of home sellers, “you better have a good financial reason.”

Prices have yet to come down, he said, because there are still more buyers than sellers. A limited number of homes for sale has meant a relatively small pool of shoppers have to bid against each other.

The past two years’ sales figures have smashed previous records for low sales, even past recessions. There were 31,268 home sales in 1995 and 34,294 in 2008.

Raylene Brundage, an agent who sells in several North County communities, said she had a rare seller in November who wanted to sell a single-family home in College Area and stay in San Diego County. However, the sale fell through when the sellers weren’t able to find a new home.

Even if sellers know a higher home price might mean it takes longer to find a buyer, she said most prefer to keep the price high. Part of the reasoning, Brundage said, is the belief San Diego County home price gains will soon start accelerating again.

The change in cost for a potential buyer over the past two years has been significant — even though interest rates are at similar levels. If a buyer in November bought a median priced home at $888,000, the interest rate would have been around 6.81% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan. Assuming 20 percent down, that would make for a roughly $5,000 monthly payment.

If a buyer bought a median priced home — $764,250 — in November 2022, the interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan would have been about 6.58%. Assuming 20 percent down, the monthly payment would be around $4,300.

Here’s how different home types fared in November:

—Resale single-family: Median of $970,000 with 1,237 sales. Down from its peak of $1 million in May and June.

—Resale condo: Median of $679,500 with 656 sales, down from a peak of $723,000 in April.

—Newly built: Median of $956,500 with 348 sales. This figure combines single-family homes, townhouses and condos. It was down from a peak of $1.2 million in July, when there was an influx of newly built single-family homes, lifting the median higher.

The number of homes for sale in San Diego County was dropping at the end of the year, but it was still an improvement based on how the year started. There were about 5,100 homes listed for sale in November, said the Redfin Data Center, down from a peak of 5,600 in September but up from 3,100 to start 2024.

All of Southern California has seen prices increase over the past year, with Orange County seeing the biggest rise. Here’s a look at the median prices — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — across the region:

Los Angeles County: Monthly drop of 0.7% for a median of $869,000. Up 3.4% annually.

Orange County: Up 2.5% in a month to a median of $1.2 million; Up 7.2% in a year.

Riverside County: Flat month-over-month for a median of $585,000; A rise of 6.6% in year.

San Bernardino County: Monthly drop of 1% to a median of $520,000; Up 0.8% in a year.

San Diego County: Up 1% monthly for a median of $888,000 An annual rise of 4.5%.

Ventura County: Monthly rise of 0.6% to a median of $835,000; Up 0.8% annually.

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