In an EV-hype world, automakers are discovering hybrids are hot again
Published in Business News
More hybrid vehicles are set to come to market in the coming years because many customers lack an appetite for all-electric vehicles — and automakers are seeking to catch up to what they are willing to drive.
Hybrids are meant to be more fuel-efficient than gas- and diesel-powered vehicles and produce fewer carbon emissions, helping to fill the gap in automakers' efforts to comply with government fuel economy and emissions regulations in light of EV sales missing expectations over customer concerns on their affordability, access to charging infrastructure, speed to charge and other matters. Models like the Ford F-150 Hybrid show customers are even willing to pay a premium for them, according to executives.
“It’s the best of both worlds,” said Dion Harris, 54, a machinist from Riverview, about his 2023 Maverick Hybrid XL.
Harris likes small trucks, and he wasn’t sure if he was ready to jump into an all-electric vehicle yet. He likes that the Maverick allows him to store stuff in the bed, can still fit five people and can squeeze out 650 miles on one tank of gas.
“I’ll drive my wife’s minivan, and it’s like, wow, I miss the hybrid compared to the internal combustion engine,” he said. “It seems to be such a quieter vehicle, especially if you’re stuck in traffic. You’re not using any fuel. You can putt along with the electric motor. But city driving is where the thing shines."
General Motors Co. has ditched its all-in-on-EVs plan to reintroduce plug-in hybrids to North America in 2027 after being a leader in the technology with the Chevrolet Volt in 2010. Amid slowing EV sales growth, the Detroit automaker on Monday said it is selling its stake in the Lansing Ultium Cells LLC battery plant to its joint-venture partner LG Energy Solution, with the expectation of recouping $1 billion from its investment there.
Volkswagen AG-backed Scout Motors Inc. had intended to be an all-electric brand but is introducing plug-in hybrids when it begins production in 2027. Ford Motor Co. said it will have a full lineup of hybrids in North America by 2030, and Stellantis NV has emphasized its new platforms are multi-energy, able to support electric, gas, hybrid and other propulsion types.
Hybrids are hot. Sales of the gas-electric vehicles surged more than 30% in the second quarter compared to the same time last year, according to Wards Intelligence data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Sales of hybrids moved to 9.6% of the U.S. market from 8.6% as sales of battery-electric vehicles remained comparatively flat at 7.1%. In total, non-ICE powertrains accounted for 18.7% of sales through the second quarter.
So, if hybrids are so great, why even still produce internal combustion engine vehicles?
The additional hardware like a battery automatically makes hybrids more expensive to build than ICE vehicles, giving the latter a cost advantage in a market where average monthly payments in October were $743 (compared to a $795 peak in December 2022), according to Cox Automotive Inc. Hybrids also get most of their benefits from city driving, so highway drivers may not see as much benefit. Some models don't have quite the towing performance in their hybrid versions. And at the end of the day, ICE is just what many buyers are familiar and most comfortable with — and they're fueling automakers' profits and investments into the future they see with EVs.
"We haven't backed off on investment on ICE," Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said recently at the Barclays Auto and Mobility Conference. "We still believe that there's a long tail to the ICE business, especially for the larger vehicles. As we've talked about in the past, the application of batteries to large vehicles, the physics doesn't work. It's not in favor. And so we think that for trucks, vans, large SUVs, the ICE business is going to go on for quite a while."
Larger vehicles need larger batteries to offer desirable ranges, but the batteries are the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. ICE vehicles don't have that same kind of challenge.
Adding to the longevity of life for ICE vehicles is President-elect Donald Trump's commitment to eliminating what he called an "EV mandate" under the Biden administration. That's expected to entail cutting an up to $7,500 tax credit on eligible plug-in vehicles, which includes plug-in hybrids, and relaxing fuel economy and greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions rules.
"In a big and complex market, one solution doesn’t work," said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at consumer analytics firm J.D. Power. "A full basket of solutions is probably the best strategy."
'Right tool'
Through October, hybrids represented 9.2% of Ford's U.S. sales, which was more than double its EV sales. Stellantis' five plug-in hybrids represented 9.9% of its U.S. sales through September. Over at Toyota Motor Corp., though, 27 hybrids, including the Prius and plug-in hybrids, represented 56% of U.S. sales through the end of the third quarter.
"Domestic automakers were betting a little too heavy on EVs," said Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst at market research firm Guidehouse Inc. "Stellantis has been slower with EV options, but it has plug-in hybrids, but not any regular hybrids. None of them have gotten it exactly right."
Jim Baumbick, Ford's vice president of product development operations and quality, said the Dearborn automaker has been working with hybrids for nearly two decades: "As we've evolved the technology, the hybrid technology got more and more capable, but this is where you've got to intersect how a customer uses the vehicle, what's the right tool for their jobs, and what's the right solution set."
Hybrid customers typically pay more. Ford's Maverick midsize truck starts at $23,920 for the 2-liter EcoBoost engine and $25,670 for the 2.5-liter hybrid engine. The 2024 hybrid has a combined mpg of 37 and produces 237 grams of greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions per mile, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. That's compared to a maximum 26 mpg and minimum energy impact of 342 grams per mile for the gas-powered model.
F-150 options both start at $37,065. The 2024 hybrid gets a combined 23 mpg and produces 387 grams of greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions, according to the EPA. Maximum mpg on the gas-powered model is 21 and the lowest energy impact is 425 grams per mile. The gas truck can tow up to 13,500 pounds. The hybrid maxes out at a little more than 11,000 pounds.
"Hybrids are going to have an advantage on a lot of start-stop and more of a city drive, not just in a city, but the fact that it's not a continuous, long distance, heavy load over the highway," Baumbick said. "I'll use a commercial example: They're towing heavy loads, 15,000 to 25,000 pounds across the country. They're running trucks 24/7. They're going long distances. They're not going to see the full benefit, because they're driving tons of highway, high load. A diesel is the right tool for their job."
Someone who, on occasion, tows might be more suited for hybrid, he said. Electrification also offers new advantages. Ford's "Pro Power Onboard" can serve as a generator when a home loses power or at a work site by drawing energy, and it doesn't take up space in the truck bed.
Toyota's truck offerings are a little bit more comparable to each other, with a couple hundred-pound maximum towing difference between the ICE and hybrid Tacoma and Tundra.
The all-electric F-150 Lightning has an up to 70 equivalent combined mpg rating from the EPA and zero GHG grams per mile traveled. But EVs produce roughly 40% more carbon emissions in their production than ICE vehicles because of their batteries, Abuelsamid said. Factoring in emissions from the production of electricity, EVs still are 80-90% more efficient in their use than ICE vehicles.
A hybrid's emissions gap compared to ICE during production is under 10%, Abuelsamid said, and can be 30-40% during its use. Plug-in hybrids could look similar to results from an EV, except with fewer production emissions because of a smaller battery, if they're driven mostly in electric mode.
"It varies so much depending on how a person drives," Abuelsamid said, noting studies show a third of plug-in hybrid owners charge daily, a third occasionally and a third never.
"That's probably been the biggest challenge is helping people see the value to plug them in," Baumbick said, "versus carrying the extra weight around of the hybrid system and running it as a gas engine."
Last year, Ford stopped offering its popular Explorer SUV as a hybrid. The company is prioritizing the technology instead on the Police Interceptor SUVs. Ford also offers the Lincoln Nautilus SUV as a hybrid and the Ford Escape as a hybrid and plug-in hybrid.
"There's a very high demand for police applications, and it's not a supply chain problem," Baumbick said. "There's such a backlog of demand in that space that we're just prioritizing that offering."
At Stellantis, Jeep announced during the recent Los Angeles Auto Show that it will introduce a hybrid midsize SUV, a Cherokee replacement, next year. Stellantis representatives declined to specify if it'll be a hybrid or plug-in hybrid. The brand's most popular plug-in hybrid is the Jeep Wrangler 4xe. It starts at $50,695. When using gas and electric, the 2024 model's combined mpg is 49, producing 404 GHG grams per mile, according to the EPA. The gas model starts at $31,995. It best achieves 21 mpg and 416 grams GHG per mile.
Mike Missak has owned two Wrangler 4xes. The 45-year-old founder of the Jeeps on the Run club and administrator of the Jeep 4xe Enthusiasts Facebook group is a self-professed "Jeep freak" who was excited about the new technology when he got a '21 Wrangler 4xe High Altitude. He now has a '24 in the Sahara trim and has installed a Level 2 charger at his home.
The social media and digital marketing contractor, who does work with a car dealership, said he's not "anti-EV" but he doesn't desire one: "It is a great stepping stone," he said of the 4xe, "because if I can’t charge it, I can get in it and in no way does it change the way my lifestyle goes right now. When I can charge it, man, I really enjoy skipping the pump."
The new technology hasn't been without its frustrations completely — the vehicle has been recalled with the recommendation that owners not charge their vehicle or park it in a garage. With just gas, the '24 Wrangler gets 20 combined mpg.
"Knowing that not only was it the first year, but it was brand new technology, you have that expectation," Missack said. "The first recall, OK, the second recall, all right. Now, these are all battery-related, I personally feel like: Have we lost a little bit of trust? Have they really fixed it?"
In September, Stellantis issued a new recall of more than 154,000 model year 2020-24 Wrangler and Grand Cherokee 4xe plug-in hybrids for a fire risk. It directed owners to park outside and away from other structures and vehicles. The company said dealers will update the battery pack control module software or replace the battery, if needed.
GM directed a request for comment on hybrids and the continuation of ICE vehicles to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an industry trade group. The alliance did not respond to an inquiry The Detroit News left with a representative.
Extended-range EV
Stellantis doesn't have a hybrid option for its Ram 1500 truck, though next year it will launch the Ram 1500 Ramchanger. Like a hybrid, it has both an engine and a battery, but this extended-range electric vehicle runs completely off its battery with the engine on board simply charging it. The engine isn't directly connected to the wheels. The EPA has not published information on fuel economy or emissions for that vehicle.
During a virtual news conference Nov. 19 on the automaker's multi-energy STLA Frame platform, then-CEO Carlos Tavares emphasized the importance of offering multiple powertrain options: "We cannot talk about one market in the U.S. There are several markets depending on the fact that you are in a coastal area or not a coastal area, inland or not inland. There are very different sensitivities from our customer base about pickup trucks. What we do understand is that protecting the lifestyle of our American customers is key. We have to protect the lifestyle, because the lifestyle is what they want to keep very, very strongly.
"That's why we have different solutions," said Tavares, who resigned Sunday amid falling sales and declining profits. "We have the current ICE versions. We have the BEV for more sensitive markets like California or the eastern coast. And then we have the range extender, which can be both zero-emission for a small mileage, and, at the same time, protect all the capabilities that you expect from a pickup truck in this case."
Ford hasn't announced an extended-range EV, but executives publicly have spoken about how the technology is intriguing and growing in popularity in China, the world's largest EV market.
The '24 Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wrangler 4xe SUVs have a maximum all-electric range of 26 and 22 miles, respectively, according to the EPA. The Ford Escape plug-in hybrid has a battery-only range of 37 miles, according to Ford. With a larger battery, the Ramcharger is expected to offer 145 miles of range from the battery alone.
"That starts to change the game a little bit, and also, it solves a couple of problems," Baumbick said of extended-range EVs compared to hybrids. "It starts to take away the range anxiety for a customer, but enables, with a larger battery and that generator on board, what most customers really need, and that's 50 to more than 70 miles of electric range."
'Lower cost difference'
Developing and offering multiple powertrains, though, is costly and complex. Automakers who spoke to The News declined to comment on the costs and profitability of hybrids compared to gas-powered vehicles. Tavares said Stellantis remains efficient by using its five platforms globally across its 14 brands to cover various sizes of vehicles and multiple powertrains.
Hybrid vehicles can add $1,500 to $2,000 in costs over an ICE vehicle, Abuelsamid said. That's compared with $8,000 to $10,000 additional for an all-electric vehicle.
"At least for now, for the near term, it’s still the cheapest solution," Abuelsamid said about ICEs, adding about hybrids: "You're adding more hardware, so it's never going to be even. But it's a much lower cost difference" than an EV.
Employees on Stellantis' propulsion systems team assigned to hybrid and all-electric programs work closely with each other "to best optimize the synergies among the propulsion technologies, particularly in the areas of energy storage and system controls," spokesperson Dale Jewett said in an email.
At Ford, hybrids fall under its Ford Blue division, while all-electric vehicles make up its Model e division. Some talent like designers, for example, are shared.
"Americans need their vehicle to do everything, including that once-a-year road trip to drive to the Gulf Coast," Jominy said. "There are a lot of fantastic plug-ins out there. We need to learn to market those kind of vehicles."
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