David Nicklaus: Analyst sees Boeing recovery taking 10 years
Published in Business News
Boeing was flying high in mid-2018 with record plane deliveries, record revenue and a record-high stock price.
Then came two fatal crashes of its 737 Max aircraft, followed by a global pandemic. Years of regulatory scrutiny and snarled supply chains ensued, coming at the same time Boeing’s defense unit was losing money because it bid too aggressively on fixed-price contracts.
Boeing lost a total of $24 billion between 2019 and 2023, and $8 billion more in the first nine months of 2024. Its share price is 67% below the 2018 high.
That includes a 50% drop this year amid more turbulence: A door plug blew off an Alaska Airlines 737 in flight, the Starliner spaceship was deemed unsafe after ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station and an eight-week machinists’ strike crippled airliner production.
The strike ended Nov. 4, but new Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg has a long list of things that need fixing before he can stop the red ink and the embarrassing headlines.
Culture is at the top of the list. Boeing was once famous for a corporate ethos that prized quality and safety above all, but that shifted subtly under a series of bottom-line-focused leaders.
“They had lost a little focus on the quality side,” said Jeff Windau, an analyst at Edward Jones. “The root cause was trying to get more planes out the door to generate cash.”
“The sacrifice of safety was a byproduct, it wasn’t the intent,” said Scott Hamilton, managing director at consulting firm Leeham Co. “When you have the CEO, backed up by the board, pressing for cost cuts so you can improve margins, those cost cuts will eventually trickle down to safety.”
Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, believes Boeing’s rocky labor relations are also a consequence of the cultural shift in the executive suite. “They put profits over capability and regarded the workforce as a tertiary concern,” he said. “This is not the happiest crew you’re going to meet, as evidenced by the strike.”
Boeing does have some things going for it. Its order book is strong, and demand for air travel is robust enough to keep both Boeing and Airbus, its main rival, busy for years to come.
Analysts warn, though, that the turnaround won’t be quick. Hamilton thinks Boeing will need five years to get airliner production back to where it was in 2018, and 10 years to pay down debt and rebuild the strong balance sheet it had pre-pandemic.
“It’s taken almost three decades to get where they are,” Hamilton said. “It’s not going to be fixed in three weeks or three months or three years.”
The balance sheet is important because at some point in the 2030s, Boeing will need to launch a replacement for its workhorse 737 line. Building an all-new plane is a bet-the-farm kind of investment, not the kind of move a weakened company can contemplate.
Meanwhile, any number of internal stumbles or external hurdles could delay Boeing’s recovery. Aboulafia worries that Boeing’s recent layoff announcement — aimed at cutting 10% of the workforce — could drive away talented engineers and other staffers the company needs.
Another danger on the horizon: President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could ignite a trade war.
“If they’re serious about what they’re saying, Boeing is destroyed,” Aboulafia said. “You lose the China market, and you get retaliation from Europe. That’s what you call an existential threat.”
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