Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell after jumping the previous week in Southeastern states affected by Hurricane Helene, and data will probably remain volatile in the coming weeks.

Initial claims decreased by 19,000 to 241,000 in the week ended Oct. 12. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 259,000 applications.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.87 million in the previous week to the highest since July, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

The damage done by Helene and Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida two weeks later, has left many people unable to work and possibly unable to file for benefits. That means claims will continue to fluctuate in the near-term, although economists anticipate this lumpiness will eventually subside. Up until this point, weekly filings were subdued, in part because the number of Americans losing their jobs was relatively low.

Another reason behind the drop in initial filings was a sizable drop in Michigan, on an unadjusted basis. Claims in the state declined by the most since February 2022 after jumping by a large amount in the two previous weeks due to layoffs in manufacturing.

The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, rose to 236,250, the highest since August.

Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial claims fell last week. Florida and North Carolina saw some of the largest declines.

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