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After steering major deal, Shanahan, CEO of Boeing supplier, could be next Boeing boss

Dominic Gates, The Seattle Times on

Published in Business News

Financial analysts were skeptical Monday in their assessment of what the deal will mean for Boeing.

Rob Stallard of Vertical Research Partners summed it up as “good for Spirit, good for Airbus, and less good for Boeing.”

While Spirit shareholders get a 10% bump in the value of their stock compared to when the deal was first leaked back in April, and Airbus gets a hefty payoff, Boeing inherits a troubled supplier that will require substantial investment to fix.

Yet Stallard concludes in his note to investors that, for Boeing, “we think that it is worth taking the financial hit if this increases the chances of getting the 737 program back on track. … Bringing Spirit back in house should increase the chances of successfully ramping production.”

Stewart Glickman, deputy research director at CFRA Research, agreed the deal will be no panacea for Boeing.

Boeing’s “standing with regulators, and its delivery cadence for 737 Max jets, will both be slow to recover,” Glickman wrote, adding that the jetmaker’s now-higher debt level and the near-term prospect of changing CEOs introduces risk.

 

Unless airplane production ramps up, credit agencies are likely to penalize Boeing, said Ben Tsocanos, Airlines Director, S&P Global Ratings, which for now is maintaining Boeing’s rating.

“We could lower the rating if the company fails to increase plane production and deliveries late this year,” Tsocanos wrote. “We do not believe there will be imminent improvement.”

The deal is expected to take about a year to finalize. So if Shanahan does leave to take the top job at Boeing, some of his lieutenants at Spirit will have to take over the company split-up.

To complete that, the deal must first undergo regulatory scrutiny. And the Boeing acquisition is also conditional on the Airbus part of the agreement being finalized.

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