An Unpopularity Contest for the Ages

Voters' assessments of candidates between April and Election Day tend to stay stable; the notable exceptions were Bill Clinton in 1992, who moved from minus-11 to plus-7 in the NBC-WSJ poll, and Barack Obama in 2008, who rose from plus-7 to plus-21. Hillary Clinton, given the roller-coaster nature of her ratings, may have the capacity to rise again.

Still, the unpopularity of the leading candidates reflects both their unique characteristics as polarizing personalities and the broader political sorting of the American electorate. As voters assemble themselves into reliably and increasingly intense red and blue blocs, their assessments of the opposing side harden.

Which raises questions about the potentially grim aftermath. History teaches that a new president's approval rating rises between Election Day and the inauguration. Americans become more charitably disposed to their new leader once the campaign has concluded, if only briefly.

Will the 45th president enjoy that luxury? Does presidential popularity even matter in an era of congressional gridlock?

Some political scientists think not, citing a shift in the locus of presidential authority away from legislating. "Presidential power is no longer the power to persuade," said Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. "Popularity at one time was a major factor in a president's ability to govern, but we are in the era of the institutional president, where presidents rely on their administrative powers and the powers of the office, and less on public opinion."

If Clinton is elected, said Middlebury College political scientist Matthew Dickinson, "the fact that she may be one of the most unfavorably viewed presidents is not going to make a huge difference, because she's likely going to be running into a House controlled by Republicans and the Senate's going to be close either way. That's what really eats into your ability to govern, rather than your favorability ratings."

Perhaps. But the unfolding unpopularity contest cannot be a healthy sign for our democracy, nor a good omen for the presidency to come.

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Ruth Marcus' email address is ruthmarcus@washpost.com.