A 'potentially explosive' hurricane season is coming, predicts AccuWeather

“When you look back at historical sea surface temperature in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region (off Africa), recent average water temperatures jump off the chart,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “They are the highest observed this early in the season in the available records.”

He is highly confident that sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin will remain well above the historical average throughout the 2024 hurricane season, said the report.

“This is a very concerning development considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80% of the storms form, which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes.”

La Niña and climate change

El Niño, which caused Florida to have a relatively wet winter, is in the process of neutralizing, and forecasters at the National Weather Service say that there’s a 62% chance of a La Niña emerging this summer. La Niña’s warmer Pacific water temperatures typically mean lighter wind shear in the Atlantic. Wind shear can topple hurricanes as they form.

Other factors remain wild cards at this point. It seems too early to tell if Saharan dust will inhibit storms, as it has been known to do. It’s also unclear what a feature called the Bermuda High will do. This semi-permanent high pressure over the Atlantic allows storms to arc north away from the U.S. if it’s weak, or steers them west into the U.S. if it’s strong.

Forecasters at AccuWeather also noted the impact of climate change. Though there’s no indication that climate change has resulted in more storms, there has been an increase in intensity.

Warmer waters also cause water’s volume to increase. “Thermal expansion, combined with the melting of land-based glaciers due to climate change, has resulted in a steady rise in sea level, especially along portions of the U.S. East Coast,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson. “The same exact landfalling hurricane, in terms of strength and track with a similar tide, will produce significantly more coastal flooding along exposed areas, compared to a storm 30 to 50 years ago.”

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