“There’s been nobody in the White House — under Biden or under Obama, and certainly not Trump — who was interested in helping FDA get that clearance through,” Lindblom said.

Banning menthol would likely only please voters who will vote for Biden anyway, said David Sweanor, an adjunct professor at the University of Ottawa and a longtime anti-smoking advocate in both the U.S. and Canada.

“How many swing voters or potential nonvoters are going to be influenced by anything that we do?” he said of the likely thought process. “And do we risk losing Georgia?”

Polling from CTFK shows Biden maintaining a 2-point lead with voters regardless of whether he finalizes the menthol ban. But polling commissioned by Altria shows a majority of Biden’s core demographic opposed to the menthol and flavored cigar bans.

Regardless, public health advocates say the industry is stoking unnecessary fears while the media are fanning the flames.

“What’s important to the White House, what’s important and the obstacle I think right now is, how is the media coverage about this?” Lindblom said.

Black leadership divide

The issue has split civil rights and Black interest groups, with organizations like Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network and the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives calling on the FDA to nix the proposal.

But others are pressuring the FDA to forge ahead, including the African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council, which recently filed a lawsuit to force the FDA to finalize the rule. Supporters of the ban dismiss critics’ concerns, pointing in part to the industry money and other associations that tie groups like NOBLE and NAN to tobacco companies.

Advocates also note that the ban impacts only retailers, not individual smokers. But law enforcement groups argue they’re responsible for enforcing state laws against untaxed cigarettes, which is what menthols will become if they’re banned.

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