Russia is preparing to enlist more contract soldiers as it presses its invasion of Ukraine, aiming to avoid at least for now another mass call-up that could undermine popular support for the war.

The Kremlin is anxious not to repeat the September 2022 mobilization, which shook public confidence and triggered an exodus of as many as a million Russians from the country, three people informed about discussions on the matter said.

With as many as 30,000 new recruits a month, Russia could reinforce army ranks by 300,000 this year, said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies think tank.

Bolstered by its advantage in ammunition, the Russian army is continuing to advance as Ukraine’s forces struggle because of delays in U.S. and European military aid and personnel shortages. To be sure, relying on a gradual influx of new troops to replace losses and build up numerical strength rather than simply calling up another 300,000 in one go limits Russia’s military options.

Gaining control of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, or capturing Zaporizhzhia in the southeast would likely require a major new fighting force. An assault on the strategic southern port city of Odesa would be an even tougher goal.

Still, concerns are mounting that Russia may make major gains in the coming weeks by punching through overstretched Ukrainian lines, people familiar with the matter in the U.S. and Europe said. Russian troops are at the outskirts of their next key target in the eastern Donetsk region, Chasiv Yar, whose elevated position makes it crucial to Ukraine’s defense of the area.

Ukraine at the same time is facing a daily barrage of missiles, drones and bombs that is knocking out important power infrastructure because of a lack of air defenses and hitting army positions. Looking to also bolster their frontlines, lawmakers in Kyiv approved a watered-down version of controversial legislation to recruit more troops.

Russia has detailed plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million people from 1.15 million now, of which 650,000 have had combat experience in Ukraine, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in December. In January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv’s forces numbered just short of 900,000.

“The shape of the Russian offensive that’s going to come is pretty clear,” the former commander of the U.K.’s Joint Forces Command, Gen. Sir Richard Barrons, told the BBC. “We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons.”

The Russian Defense Ministry on April 3 said more than 100,000 new recruits had signed up so far this year, with as many as 1,700 people volunteering a day.

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