Jason Mackey: Kyle Dubas can't afford to let Penguins' recent run change the big picture
Published in Hockey
What the Penguins have done since Thanksgiving Eve has been admirable. When everyone thought they were circling the drain, they won nine of 13 entering the NHL's Christmas break, flirting with a possible playoff spot.
Their power play, which last year was a significant drag, was clicking at 30.8% during that time, their penalty kill at 90.6%. Meanwhile, they had simplified their breakouts, played tighter in the neutral zone and displayed a willingness to dump and chase to create offense. Perhaps most important, they showed during various stretches an ability to sustain momentum.
Crazy, I know.
But what happened Saturday on Long Island during a 6-3 loss to the Islanders at UBS Arena felt a little like a splash of cold water to the face, a reminder that problems still exist and that this remains a fringe playoff team at best.
It's an uncomfortable reality, sure.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang only have so many years left. There's an inherent sense of urgency there, a need for Penguins president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas to place at least some importance on the present and not turn 100% of his attention to the future.
But the best thing for Dubas and Co. remains to take a sober look at the assets the Penguins have, where they stand in the Eastern Conference playoff race, and probably make a couple ruthless decisions in the months ahead.
In other words, Dubas should not deviate from the plan or get lulled into some false sense of security provided by this team's pre-holiday run.
If Rickard Rakell (17 goals) is playing well enough that the Penguins might be able to attach Ryan Graves' contract to a deal and get talent back, Dubas should accept short-term frustration for the long-term gain the vacated salary-cap space would provide.
Provided Marcus Pettersson (lower-body injury) returns soon, he's also an enticing trade chip — and someone more natural to move considering he's playing on an expiring contract.
Now, this doesn't mean the Penguins should exclusively target draft picks in return. They should want players who are either NHL-ready or darn close in exchange for Rakell, Pettersson and other movable pieces.
The tradeoff, of course, is functioning with less this season to receive contributions from new guys as early as 2025-26, when Crosby, Malkin and Letang (plus Erik Karlsson if you want to include him with that group) are still around to enjoy it.
As far as Karlsson, I'd absolutely listen to offers, though I'm not sure how they'd sound considering the combination of his age, salary and play this season.
Fortunately for Dubas and the Penguins, no decisions need to be made now. What the Penguins lacked on Saturday could prove to be a one-game blip — and that would be great. Change everything if the Penguins can somehow show that their 9-3-1 run heading into the break was real.
I just don't know how much it has raised the group's collective ceiling.
Given the team's depth issues on defense, it's natural to worry about the Penguins' ability to prevent opposing teams from scoring; they're still permitting an NHL-worst 3.70 goals against per game.
It's also tough to see how their 53 goals scored (tied for the NHL lead) between Nov. 27 and Saturday is sustainable considering they shot 15.3% during that time. Last season, for context, the Penguins shot just 9.4%.
At some point, the offense will normalize, and the Penguins will have to reliably prevent other teams from scoring. I've yet to see enough from Tristan Jarry and the Penguins' team defense to believe that's going to happen.
Jarry wasn't the primary problem against the Islanders, but he also didn't offer much in the way of a solution. Since returning to the NHL club on Nov. 15, and prior to Saturday, Jarry had produced a modest .894 save percentage.
The intriguing part might be if an opposing team has seen enough to give Dubas something for Jarry — which would be another move the Penguins absolutely must consider.
With Joel Blomqvist in the minors, the Penguins have natural back-fill at the position. The dream would be if Blomqvist was able to get meaningful experience and show he's capable of handling an NHL workload.
It's also highly questionable whether an offer would ever arrive for Jarry, which is another discussion.
Sure, the Penguins are 16-16-5, their 37 points one back of the Ottawa Senators when it comes to the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Erasing a two-year playoff drought would be nice, especially when you consider how poorly this season started.
However, pretty much anyone who has watched the Penguins this season should see that considerable flaws still exist.
They lack consistent scoring outside of the top line. Defending the net-front was a sizable issue against the Islanders and has been for too much of this season. Offensive depth and owning the battle areas are keys to any sort of playoff run. The same for what happens far too frequently when their defensemen pinch.
The same as he said back in April, Dubas shouldn't get caught up in any one snapshot and instead evaluate the team based on its entire body of work ... while simultaneously building a younger, deeper roster that can legitimately compete for a longer stretch of time.
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