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Greg Cote: Dolphins' 18-month decline and quiet offseason heap pressure on Tua, coach, GM

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on

Published in Football

MIAMI — I am wearing a miner’s helmet, the lamp leading me through the darkness, pickax in hand as I crunch across the rubble. I am searching. Looking hard. What I am after, though — it difficult to find.

I am looking for reasons Miami Dolphins fans might be optimistic at the moment. Why they might be the least bit encouraged by this offseason or the free agency period now winding down as the NFL Draft draws nearer.

The Dolphins themselves have been deep in the mine searching for a playoff victory the past 24 straight years with no luck. They are coming off a moribund 8-9 season, their worst since before the pandemic. It was a season when quarterback Tua Tagovalioa relapsed into concussion-prone Fragile Guy, missing six more games.

This would have been a very good offseason to provide hope that Miami might be very good in 2025. But nothing yet. Lots of minor additions in the tweak category due partly to the Fins ranking 27th in salary-cap spending money. Mostly wheel-spinning then. More likely it has been a net-negative as losing star safety Jevon Holland in free agency to the New York Giants has been the most notable coming or going thus far.

The April draft does not hint at likely big-splash major impact, either, with Miami picking mid-round at 13th overall.

You know how sometimes something that happened so recently seems so far away?

It was September 24, 2023. Only about a year and a half ago.

Miami was 3-0 after clubbing Denver, 70-20 — 70 points and 726 yards of offense. Crazy! That speed-crazy attack would be the darling of the NFL that year. Tyreek Hill was a thrill ride. Tagovailoa would play all 17 games (for the only time in his career). Coach Mike McDaniel seemed like a wunderkind.

The Dolphins were 11-4 deep into that season, the end of the playoff drought seeming, even Super Bowl contention in the mix of media discussion.

Miami has been 8-12 since. It has been 18 months of fairly precipitous decline.

The offense that electrified pro football in 2023 ranked 22nd in scoring in ‘24.

Injuries starting with Tagovailoa have played a big part. So has the NFL figuring out how to offset Miami’s team speed with deeper coverages and the Fins failing to find a counterpunch. A sharp decline by Hill and by the ground game magnified the downturn. The continuing mediocrity of the offensive line hasn’t helped.

And all the while the AFC has gotten stronger, to the point Miami ranked a mid-pack 16th in the latest Pro Football Network power rankings, and seventh in the conference after the Ravens. Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Broncos and Chargers. And two AFC teams ranked lower (Texans, Steelers) are coming off playoff seasons.

 

The combination leading to Miami’s decline the past 18 months means McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier should be seen as fighting for their jobs in ‘25. Tagovailoa might be, too, although the four-year, $212 million contract extension he signed complicates his future status here.

I have been a Tagovailoa supporter and still believe he is good enough in an offensive system that allowed him a quick release. But his productivity craters when plays break down, his record vs. teams with a winning record is bad, and he also has proved unreliable on the most fundamental of abilities: availability.

That is why a healthy ‘25 and a return to Pro Bowl form is a must for him. This will be his sixth season. His predecessor, Ryan Tannehill, also had six seasons before Miami decided enough was enough. Enough with being good but not good enough. Enough waffling on whether this quarterback was indeed the answer or not quite.

The club will be at that same point with Tagovailoa this season.

Where Miami has fallen is the no-man’s land reflected in last season’s 8-9. Good enough to maybe contend for a wild-card spot and a playoff road game. Good enough for another mid-round draft spot. Not good enough to be anybody’s championship contender.

That proverbial window of contention seemed to be open for Miami in 2023. Two seasons later, does that window still even exist? It is ajar enough to allow in wafts of hopes if not a strong gust?

Baltimore has Lamar Jackson. Nemesis Buffalo just extended Josh Allen. Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will continue to be the Fins roadblock Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were. Joe Burrow makes Cincinnati a threat. Denver loves rising QB Bo Nix. Jim Harbaugh has made Justin Herbert and the Chargers better. The Patriots and new coach Mike Vrabel have had a lauded offseason.

Miami has a hard climb in the AFC East and especially in its own conference.

Where is the optimism? The question is an exercise in hope for a fan base that should be used to it by now.

Put on the miner’s helmet and keep looking.

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©2025 Miami Herald. Visit miamiherald.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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