Greg Cote's NFL conference championship picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Jan 23, 2025

Published in Football

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I didn’t mind 2-2 straight-up last week. Ravens-Bills was a crapshoot; still think the better team lost. And I’d pick Lions over Commanders again. But no excuses ATS. At least I avoided a complete shutout by salvaging a push with Eagles winning by 6. Three games left in the postseason. No more misses allowed!

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Divisional round: 2-2, .500 overall; 0-3-1, .125 vs. spread

Playoffs: 7-3, .700 overall; 3-6-1, .350 vs. spread.

Final regular season: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS

— FINAL FOUR’S TITLE GAME HISTORY, AMERICA’S ROOTING INTEREST: History: Kansas City is making its eighth AFC championship game appearance (4-3) and seventh in a row. (The seven straight is not a record. New England had eight in a row from 2011 to 2018.) Buffalo is making its seventh appearance (4-2). Teams have met twice for AFC crown; Bills won, 30-13, in 1993 and Chiefs won, 38-24, in 2020. Philadelphia is making ninth NFC championship game appearance (4-4), most recently a win in 2022. Washington is making its seventh appearance (5-1), but first since 1991. This is the teams’ first meeting for the conference crown. Rooting: Two-thirds of the U.S. — 33 of 50 states, including Florida — is for Buffalo, based on BetOnline.ag survey of more than 200,000 tweets referencing team hashtags. Washington is supported by 10 states, Kansas City four and Philadelphia three.

NFC

No. 6 COMMANDERS (14-5) at No. 2 EAGLES (16-3)

Line: PHI by 6.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 34-27.

TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

In overall interest and most other ways, this is definitely the warmup act to Chiefs-Bills, but intriguing nonetheless. Can one-man juggernaut Saquon Barkley carry the ball and the Eagles all the way? Can the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels become the first rookie QB ever to lead a team to a Super Bowl? These NFC East rivals’ stadiums are only 115 miles apart. Philly has won six of the past eight meetings, but they split this season and Washington won the most recent clash, a 36-33 Week 16 shootout in which Daniels-to-Terry McLaurin shredded the Birds’ pass D. Commanders have won two of past five trips to Philly, and also won the team’s only previous playoff meeting, a wild-card matchup in distant 1990. But here is my deciding factor (along with the home field): Barkley pummeled the Rams for 205 yards rushing last week and now faces a subpar Comms’ run D that been beaten up for 151 ground yards per game in the postseason. Weather does not figure as a factor, with temps in upper 30s and clear. Washington mightily impressed in upsetting Detroit last week, but Philly has quietly been on form in the playoffs, forcing six opponent turnovers and committing zero in the first two rounds. Another clean sheet and lots of Barkley should be enough here for the win and the narrow cover.

AFC

No. 2 BILLS (15-4) at No. 1 CHIEFS (16-2)

Line: K.C. by 2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 24-23.

TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS/Paramount+.

Headline: “Mahomes denies refs giving favorable calls to Chiefs." Well, no duh. If he agreed they were, now that’s a story. Sir Patrick and the Chiefs are after a historic three-peat but must get past a Buffalo squad starving for its first-ever Super Bowl win. And QB duels don’t get much better than champion Mahomes vs. likely NFL MVP Josh Allen. Weather should be largely a non-factor, with temps in the mid-20s but no snow expected. Kansas City’s pedigree and unbeaten home record makes them tough to pick against in favor of a Buffalo team whose four losses all have come on the road. The Bills have won three of past four meetings including 30-21 this season in Week 11 — though K.C.’s win during that stretch was in last year’s playoffs. In fact Chiefs are 3-0 in playoff meetings with Buffalo since 2020. But that’s added motivation for the Bills, yes? Easy to feel good no matter the pick here ... and just as easy to feel anxious. Which team’s pass rush bothers or contains the other QB more effectively might tip this result. Chiefs had eight sacks in divisional round win against Houston last week and must get to Allen, while Bills sackmen Gregory Rousseau and Von Miller have the chops to disrupt Mahomes’ pocket. Mahomes is 16-3 in the postseason in his career, but the dynasty stops (or at least stalls) here. It’s Alen’s time, and Buffalo’s. Upset!

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of afternoon Thursday.]