John Romano: Todd Bowles deserves a lot more credit than fans seem willing to give

TAMPA, Fla. — Remember Arthur Smith?

In 2020, he was a hotshot offensive coordinator with the Titans. Had the No. 4 scoring offense in the NFL at age 39 when he was hired to be the head coach in Atlanta. Three consecutive 10-loss seasons later, the Falcons fired him.

Surely, you remember Josh McDaniels.

Back in the day, he was the smartest offensive mind around. Winning Super Bowls and putting up a ton of points with New England. He was hired as the head coach in Denver at age 33. He was fired before turning 35. A decade later he got another chance as a head coach in Vegas. Fired again.

Somewhere in between, there was Ben McAdoo with the Giants. And Brian Callahan in Tennessee. And Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland.

While everyone is searching for the next Sean McVay or Matt LaFleur who can flourish as an offensive coordinator-turned-head coach, there is a trail of broken hearts and losing seasons courtesy of the coaches who couldn’t make the transition to the big office. It might have been the wrong situation. It might have been bad timing. Or it might have been they just weren’t as sharp as they seemed.

Whatever the reason, no offensive coordinator is a sure bet as a head coach.

Can you see where I’m going?

There was a steady drumbeat this season about doing whatever necessary to keep offensive coordinator Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. When the Bucs lost to the Commanders, 23-20, on Sunday night, that social media drumbeat reached a crescendo, with fans calling for Todd Bowles to be fired.

I can’t see that happening. Nor should it.

As impressive as Coen was in his debut as a playcaller, and as costly as Tampa Bay’s defensive lapses became under Bowles, that would be a reckless choice based on a small sample size of football.

Everybody wants the newest flavor. Everybody thinks there is something better around the corner. It’s the same mindset that has caused fans to call for unproven backup quarterbacks since the days of the T formation.

Is Bowles an elite head coach? His record doesn’t reflect it. His reputation doesn’t scream it. On the other hand, he has guided the Bucs through an impressive salary cap overhaul while keeping them on top of the NFC South the entire time.

If you want to blame Bowles for the defense slipping to No. 16 in the NFL in points allowed in 2024, then you should also credit him for being the defensive coordinator who completely stymied Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in 2020. You should credit him for delivering a top-10 defense in three of the past five seasons in Tampa Bay.

You should recognize that hardly anyone paid to evaluate talent thinks the Bucs have already rebuilt to a Super Bowl-level roster. Pro Football Focus may have undervalued some of Tampa Bay’s players, but it ranked the Bucs talent level at No. 18 going into the season.

To much of the NFL world, the Bucs overachieved in 2024. Or don’t you recall the common narrative back in August. The Falcons were the team that most people assumed would win the NFC South. The over/under for the Bucs in 2024 was 7.5 wins.

They won 10 games, and another division title.

“It’s just kind of the cycle that we’re in with this team,” general manager Jason Licht said a few days before the Commanders game. “Two years ago when we had the — I don’t want to say rebuild — but we knew it was going to take some time to fill every spot on the defense. Is there some spots that we could add to? Of course. But it takes time.

“And what he has done with what we have, I think, has been remarkable.”

I’m not saying that Coen will not be a great head coach some day. Heck, it may even happen in 2025 if some other owner is that impressed with Tampa Bay’s offensive turnaround.

But you do not replace a head coach who has won three consecutive division titles, was a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator and was the NFL’s version of Coen when he was named the league’s top assistant while in Arizona 10 years ago, just because your rookie offensive coordinator had a wonderful season.

Let’s also not forget that Bowles played a huge role in the offensive upgrade by pushing to sign Baker Mayfield and hiring Coen as coordinator.

Of course, there will be those who scream about Jon Gruden replacing Tony Dungy in 2002 and winning a Super Bowl with the Bucs as a precedent. OK, let’s talk about that.

First of all, Gruden was a proven commodity. At that point, he had three years as an offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and was 38-26 as a head coach in Oakland. When you’re comparing resumes, Gruden was about six years ahead of Coen.

Secondly, Gruden went 57-55 with three playoff appearances in seven years with the Bucs. Dungy was hired in Indianapolis where he went 85-27, made the playoffs seven times in seven years, won a Super Bowl and put the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame career.

Quality head coaches in the NFL are a commodity and should not be easily discarded for unproven replacements.

Maybe Bowles does not yet have a reputation as an elite head coach. Maybe he never will. And maybe this would have been a different conversation if he had not guided the Bucs to six wins in their final seven games.

But he’s done nothing to deserve being cut loose.