FBNHow do Chiefs' odds to win Super Bowl -- before NFL playoffs -- compare to last season?

Jesse Newell, The Kansas City Star on Jan 11, 2025

Published in Football

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Feb. 9, 2025.

And, perhaps interestingly, in a much better position than they were a year ago.

The Chiefs currently have the second-best odds to win the upcoming Super Bowl, according to BetMGM, behind only the Detroit Lions.

And those two teams are well ahead of the rest of the field.

Detroit leads the way at +275, meaning a $100 bet on the Lions to win it all would profit $275 if they did. The Chiefs are at +350, while the next-best teams — the Ravens and Bills — are further behind.

Here’s a look at BetMGM’s odds for the top four teams to win it all, along with the implied probability of each winning a championship based on its betting numbers.

Bet oddsImplied odds to win it allLions+27527%Chiefs+35022%Ravens+60014%Bills+60014%Source: BetMGM

The Chiefs’ +350 number and 22% odds are much higher than they were at this time last season.

Remember, according to the well-respected DVOA measure, KC faced the toughest road to a potential title in Super Bowl history. The Chiefs also weren’t playing their best entering those playoffs with an 11-6 record, and they didn’t benefit from a first-round bye week.

The sportsbook numbers took all that into account. BetMGM had the Chiefs as +900 to win it all before last year’s postseason — the fifth-best odds in the NFL.

Odds to win 2024 Super Bowl right before playoffsImplied odds49ers+22531%Ravens+32524%Bills+65013%Cowboys+75012%Chiefs+90010%Source: BetMGM

This should come as no surprise, but earning a first-round playoff bye helps ... a lot. The Chiefs’ implied odds of winning a Super Bowl this season are more than double what they were last January (22% compared to 10%), and this season’s benefit of needing only three postseason wins creates most of that difference.

A closer comparison for these Chiefs’ odds would be two years ago — before the team’s Super Bowl LVII victory against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Chiefs, who earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and bye week with a 14-3 record during that 2022 season, were BetMGM’s betting favorite heading into those playoffs at +325. The Bills (+400), Eagles (+500) and 49ers (+500) were next in line.

Here’s a look, then, at the Chiefs’ odds to win the Super Bowl before the last three postseasons.

Chiefs’ odds to win SBImplied oddsResult2022+32524%Won2023+90010%Won2024+35022%?Source: BetMGM

Some multiplication here helps us understand why a three-peat is so difficult.

Given the Chiefs’ implied betting odds to win the Super Bowl the last three seasons, the probability they’d win all three titles (given their starting spot in the playoffs) would be 0.5%, or roughly 1 in 200.

That statistical reality helps explain why the NFL has never seen a potential run like this before — and might never again, even if the Chiefs pull it off this season.