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David Murphy: Eagles are better than they have ever been. The road to the Super Bowl is tougher than ever. Up first, the Packers.

David Murphy, The Philadelphia Inquirer on

Published in Football

PHILADELPHIA — Danny Dimes ain't walking through that door. Neither is Josh Johnson nor Case Keenum.

But, hey, Malik Willis might be.

Now that Week 18 is in the books, we can say two things about the Eagles' pursuit of another Super Bowl ring:

— They are a much better team than they were the last two times they advanced to the NFL's biggest stage.

— The road to get there is much tougher.

The balance between those two variables leaves a lot to the eye of the beholder. How you feel about the Eagles' chances this postseason should depend a lot about how you feel about Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts, especially when compared to the gauntlet of coach-quarterback tandems they could face in the three playoff games they'll need to win in order to advance to the Super Bowl.

In Round 1, it will be the Packers' Matt LaFleur and — health willing — Jordan Love, a tandem that came pretty darn close to beating the Eagles in Week 1. After that will come one of the following four in the divisional round:

— Dan Campbell and Jared Goff (Lions)

— Kevin O'Connell and Sam Darnold (Vikings)

— Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)

— Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford (Rams)

— Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels (Commanders)

The exact order of the playoff field will be sorted out by the end of Sunday night, though the most consequential outcome-to-be-determined is the prime-time battle for the No. 1 seed between the Lions and Vikings, with the loser slotting into the No. 5 seed and a first-round date with either the Rams or the Bucs.

Whatever the final order, the Eagles are staring at a much different path than they did in either 2017 or 2022. They must win three games instead of two. If chalk prevails, they will have to win an NFC championship game on the road. And they will likely face a stiffer test in all three rounds than they have since squeaking out a win over the Matt Ryan-led Falcons in the divisional round of the 2017 playoffs. That year, it was Keenum and Mike Zimmer at Lincoln Financial Field for the NFC championship game. In 2022, it was the 49ers, who saw starter Brock Purdy go down on their first drive of the game, and backup Johnson leave midway through the third quarter. This, after the Eagles sailed through a divisional round game against Daniel Jones, Brian Daboll, and the Giants, who have won a total of nine games since.

The combined totals from their wins over the Giants and 49ers:

Point differential: 69-14

Yard differential: 643-433

Compare that to the path that could await them here in 2024:

 

— The Packers in Round 1

It's easy to forget how close the Eagles came to losing their season opener against the Packers. Twice in the first quarter, Green Bay started a drive inside the red zone and came away with only a field goal. The Packers also missed a field goal late in the third quarter, and settled for another one on fourth-and-5 from the Eagles' 8-yard line after driving 79 yards late in the fourth quarter with a chance at a go-ahead touchdown.

The big question this time around concerns the health of Love, who injured his elbow in the Packers' 24-22 loss to the Bears on Sunday and missed the final three quarters. Willis, a third-year, dual-threat backup, quarterbacked the Packers to wins in both of his starts earlier this season, when Love was recovering from the knee injury he suffered late in the Week 1 loss to the Eagles.

Whether Love plays or not, the Eagles should enter next week's game with the odds considerably in their favor. But that was the case for the Cowboys last postseason, when Love torched them for 272 yards and three touchdowns on 16-of-21 passing in the Packers' 48-32 romp at Jerry World in the wild-card round.

— The Bucs or Rams in Round 2

The Bucs need no introduction. The Eagles have lost six of their last seven games to Tampa Bay dating back to 2015. That includes a 1-4 record in the Jalen Hurts era, a stretch that includes playoff losses in 2022 and 2024. The good news is that the Bucs are a different team than they were in Week 4, when they beat the A.J. Brown-less Eagles, 33-16, in Tampa. Wide receiver Chris Godwin is done for the season. Cornerback Jamel Dean missed Week 18 and is uncertain for the postseason. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. didn't play against the Eagles in Week 4 and missed the last four games of the regular season.

Todd Bowles? He's healthy, and he's the last coach the Eagles would choose to face in a do-or-die game. One of the most intuitive defensive minds in the game, Bowles has a long history of neutralizing Hurts.

Hurts in five career starts against the Bucs: 59.1 completion percentage, 211.6 passing yards per game, five touchdowns, five interceptions, 14 sacks, 27.2 rushing yards per game.

The Bucs would be an underdog. But they'd be a live one.

The Rams will enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Before resting their starters in Week 18, Los Angeles had won nine of 11 games, a stretch that coincided with the return of indefatigable second-year wide receiver Puka Nacua. One of their two losses came against the Eagles, 37-20 in Week 11. But, keep in mind, the Rams left between six and 10 points on the board with a red-zone fumble on their opening drive and a missed field goal midway through the third quarter. So, it easily could have been a one-possession game before Saquon Barkley ripped off his 72-yard touchdown run to make it 37-14 Eagles with 2 minutes, 44 seconds left. Who knows what ends up happening if the Eagles are only up 30-24 at that point. It's also worth noting that Brandon Graham finished the game with three quarterback hits, two tackles for losses, and a sack.

Lot of ifs, obviously. Nobody is suggesting the smart money would be on the Rams or the Bucs. The bigger question is the cumulative toll of playing a couple of tough opponents before potentially hitting the road for the NFC championship game.

— The Lions

If you are an Eagles fan, you'll be rooting hard for the Vikings tonight. A loss by the Lions would force Detroit to enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed and play a road wild-card game for the right to play a rematch against the top-seeded Vikings in Minnesota. It would also give the Eagles home-field advantage in any NFC championship game that does not include the Vikings. Facing Goff and the Lions at Lincoln Financial Field is a far different proposition than facing them on the road in a dome.

If Detroit is the No. 1 seed?

We don't have much to go on other than projection. The last time the Eagles faced the Lions was Week 1 of 2022, when they were the canary in the coal mine for Detroit's rise to the top of the NFC. The Eagles won, but Detroit looked surprisingly competent throughout the 38-35 shootout. Since Week 9 of that season, the Lions are 34-9 with two impressive playoff wins and a hard-fought 34-31 loss to the 49ers in last year's NFC championship game.

The big concern for the Eagles would be their ability to generate pressure on Goff against a Detroit offensive line that ranks right up there with their own.

There's a lot that still has to shake out. Whatever happens, one thing is clear: There won't be any gimmes this time around.


(c)2025 The Philadelphia Inquirer Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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