Vahe Gregorian: The obvious but overlooked reason the Chiefs are peaking (and what it reveals)
Published in Football
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — As the Cardiac Chiefs were fending off last-second perils in a bizarre sequence of ways en route to a 12-1 start this season, it was natural for any of us who cover them, and even their most ardent fans, to scrutinize all that was going awry.
Clunky red-zone play. Alarming issues at left tackle. Another pedestrian passing season, with Patrick Mahomes once again throwing for 1,000 fewer yards and less than two-thirds of the touchdown passes he amassed in 2022 (5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns).
And what about the vulnerability in their depleted secondary? And struggling to create pressure on the opposing quarterback?
All legitimate points.
All still worthy of skepticism going forward ... even if it’s quite of note how much different the offense looks with the return of Hollywood Brown.
But one of the factors impeding the Chiefs was way simpler than all that.
And it emerged in sharp focus while they peaked the last three games to seal the AFC postseason No. 1 seed entering the regular-season finale on Sunday at Denver.
It’s the crux of the reason the Chiefs’ typically harrowing first 12 wins were by an average of 5.4 points and the last three have been by 13.7. An absolute reversal of turnover margin in all facets of play.
A team that had generated just 10 takeaways in 13 games amassed 10 in the 11-day trial by ordeal trifecta of games that has defined who they are entering the playoffs.
So safety Justin Reid was speaking to the moment, but also aptly to something more for the team, during his amusing celebration after his end zone pickoff on Christmas Day in Pittsburgh:
“Gift for you! Gift for you!”
Speaking of gifts, a team that had donated the ball to its opponent 14 times in the first 10 games suddenly has gone six straight games without a giveaway.
“Don’t be jinxing that,” offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said Thursday with a laugh.
Sorry about anything that might stir up, but the point was too irresistible to leave alone for a few reasons.
According to research by The Associated Press, since 1960 only three NFL teams have gone this many games in a row without a turnover: These Chiefs have matched the 2017 version of themselves. Only the 2010 New England Patriots went unscathed more times in a row (seven).
The combination has made for what Nagy called a “massive” influence on how the Chiefs have played lately.
That includes providing shorter fields for the generally methodical offense, and snuffing out opposing drives that the defense has labored to stop short as it’s allowed foes to convert third downs 41.7% of the time — 21st in the league.
Calling attention to this trend, we’ll grant you, has a certain “no duh” aspect to it, but there’s more to the notion.
You probably don’t need the scientific data to know how winning the turnover battle influences games. But here’s some, anyway, courtesy of a National Center for Biotechnology Information (honest) study citing a 2016 Harvard Sports Analytics data:
During the 2009-15 seasons, teams with a plus-one turnover advantage won 69.6% of the time; teams with plus-two won 83.9% of the games; plus-threes won 90.7%; plus-fours took 96.9% and those with five or more won 100%.
(For their part, according to Pro Football Network’s research, the Chiefs now have won 26 straight games when forcing multiple turnovers, regardless of how many they surrender themselves.)
Meanwhile, perhaps just as obviously ...
“Turnovers may be caused by any number of factors, including physical collisions, mistakes in play execution or lapses in player concentration. ... ” the NCBI study wrote. “Turnovers appear to be random events; previous work concluded that roughly equal parts chance and talent (accounted for variation).”
But that doesn’t mean teams don’t have their own sway or say in this.
And maybe that’s especially so for a dynasty marked by a knack for making its own luck.
Like through any number of Mahomes miracles and, just off the top of my head, L’Jarius Sneed punching the ball loose from Baltimore’s Zay Flowers just inches from the end zone in last season’s AFC championship game.
While we’ve seen the fortune aspect in any number of ways in any given game this season — most recently in Pittsburgh, when Nikko Remigio’s fumbled punt return caromed off the back of Leo Chenal’s helmet and was recovered by Deon Bush — there’s also plenty more to this turnover evolution than is apparent.
Consider, for example, that the Chiefs only have lost three fumbles this season in part because they’ve fumbled just eight times overall. By contrast, their opponents have fumbled 21 times, with the Chiefs pouncing on eight of those.
That’s no accident.
Then there’s Mahomes, who threw 11 interceptions in his first 344 attempts of the season but now has gone a career-best 237 passes in a row without one.
That’s not mere coincidence.
Mahomes, Nagy said, has “been phenomenal” with his decisions and accuracy the last several weeks. And while ball protection always is a point of emphasis, Nagy reckons the prime directive has seeped in more through the weeks.
“You want to make sure you talk about it,” he said. “You don’t want to overdo it, but there’s a balance to making sure that they know it.”
In the case of Pittsburgh, which Nagy called “elite” at creating turnovers, coaches repeatedly showed clips of the Steelers punching the ball out of their opponents’ hands.
“Crazy as it sounds,” Nagy said, he feels like there are times when — even in the middle of a play — the notion of “ball security” surfaces in the minds of a ball-carrier.
As for defensively, there’s somewhat of a parallel dynamic at play as the team comes into its own.
Much as Spagnuolo and his staff have reiterated the urgency, it’s about the cumulative work … and identity.
When linebacker Leo Chenal generated one of six turnovers in Cleveland by punching the ball loose from Browns running back Nick Chubb, for instance, that reflected the tutelage of outside linebackers coach Rod Wilson and influence of Wilson’s former Bears teammate Charles “Peanut” Tillman — whose patented “Peanut Punch” helped him become the NFL record-holder for forced fumbles by a linebacker.
And it reflected Chenal’s buy-in and work ethic.
“The one Leo had, he punched at the ball maybe 1,000 times before that play actually came,” Chiefs safety Bryan Cook told The Star’s Jesse Newell that day in Cleveland. “So when it came, it’s like, ‘Oh it was a great play. It was a bit out of a habit.’
“But that was a teach-tape play. That was beautiful.”
Sitting at his locker Thursday, Justin Reid smiled as he thought about the “gift for you” moment that he perceived as just a snapshot of why all of a sudden the Chiefs are mass-producing turnovers.
Some of it, he figured, is a form of momentum and contagiousness.
One interception begets another because of a certain fresh cognizance that makes for a catalyst.
While defenders always are thinking about the ball, he said, the process from his perspective unfolds like this:
First … do no harm. You’re most concerned with diagnosing the offense and making the right calls and carrying out your assignment. Be where you’re supposed to be. Don’t get beat deep. Don’t think too much.
“Then you might get a turnover,” he said, “and you start thinking about the ball a little bit more.”
Especially as the defensive chemistry is all the more refined late in the season. Trust and knowing roles and study all play a part.
Now the trick is to “stay in that sweet spot,” Reid said.
Nothing is assured or necessarily even sustainable when it comes to the turnover X-factor because of the random components that always loom.
But if the Chiefs indeed are going to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls, no doubt that part of the game will weigh as heavily as about anything else in the weeks to come — one way or another.
On their way to winning three of the last five Super Bowls, the Chiefs had a 14-8 postseason advantage in turnovers — including 11-5 in the last two. But in the two years they fell short, they lost that battle when it mattered most in defeats against the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2).
They’ll need more gifts for you, in other words, to produce the greatest one of all.
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