Greg Cote's Week 15 NFL picks

Like the previous week, I was very solid again overall but less than needed against the betting line. Got unlucky with our Upset of the Week call. Was looking good for Cowboys over Bengals until Dallas somehow managed to both block a late punt and not gain possession. !@#$%! Anyway, called Seattle’s upset win at Arizona, and had a pair of dogs-with-points on covers by Giants and Panthers. Time to keep our roll going straight-up but get on the rebound ATS as we dive post-byes into the regular season’s home stretch. Let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @49ers (6-7, -3) over Rams (7-6), 24-23.]

———

Week 14: 10-3, .769 overall; 5-7-1, .423 vs. spread.

Season: 138-70, 663 overall; 106-98-4, .520 vs. spread.

———

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BILLS (10-3) at LIONS (12-1)

Line: DET by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET, 34-31.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

[Playoffs: Both have clinched.] Top-tier GOTW is a very plausible Super Bowl preview. And since you find Lions home games under a dome like “Foie Gras Torchon” in a high-dollar restaurant, we needn’t even worry the weather might foul things up. Lions and Bills are 1-2 in scoring, Josh Allen is the league MVP favorite, and Jared Goff has been great. Not to forget two ballsy coaches who see fourth down not as a punt but as an opportunity. Dare Detroit’s defense be as aggressive as always vs. the dual-threat Allen? Can Buffalo’s D handle Lions’ run/pass balance? What a game! I know Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, and certainly no outcome would surprise. But give me Dan Campbell’s Lions at home with extra time after playing last Thursday. Allen has the noisy game with his run-threat heroics, but Goff more quietly has a 112 passer rating at home, plus the best WR and RB in this game. (And maybe the better defense, too.)

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (5-8) at PANTHERS (3-10)

Line: CAR by 3.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox

[Playoffs: DAL alive but needs miracle, CAR astonishingly not yet eliminated.] “AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Lets give it another shot, Cowbaaawwwk!” Dallas was our Upset of the Week last week as well — and had it in hand before somehow blocking a late punt and yet losing possession to blow a likely winning field goal. Second time’s a charm? Look, I get the Carolina bandwagon: 2-3 in past five games with all three losses close — and two of them to the Chiefs and Eagles. Panthers haven’t quit, give 'em that. That also means good teams tend to take a Carolina lightly. Dallas is not a good team, alas. But Boys are the more talented team here, are better on the road (4-2), and will force Bryce Young into mistakes. “Deck the halls with boughs of holly,” notes U-Bird in a non-sequitur. “Dallas gifts four sacks and a pick to Bryce Yaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 15:

Thursday night pick was @49ers (6-7, -3) over Rams (7-6), 24-23: [Playoff status: Both off pace but alive.]

Chiefs (12-1, -4 1/2) over @Browns (3-10), 23-20: [Playoffs: K.C. clinched, CLE out.] Keep waiting for champ K.C. to win easily. Keeps not happening. But Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid keep selling State Farm insurance and winning football games. Chiefs have failed to cover in six in a row as a favorite and this feels like another, especially with weather expected in 40s and cloudy with gusty wind. Cleveland is dangerous-lousy with home wins over against Steelers and Ravens, but the close pick here counts on Browns (nine turnovers in past three games) getting cleaner play from Jameis Winston.

Bengals (5-8, -5) over @Titans (3-10), 34-13: [Playoffs: CIN needs miracle but alive, TEN out.] Joe Burrow is dealing with knee and wrist issues (not to mention his house being broken into) but in no danger of sitting out. He would be in the league MVP conversation if not for the darned won-lost record, and is set for another big playday with Ja’Marr Chase. Tennessee kills itself with turnovers, and Bengals’ sack crew led by Trey Hendrickson will be in Will Levis’ pocket all day.

Commanders (8-5, -7 1/2) over @Saints (5-8), 30-17: [Playoffs: WAS narrowly on pace, NO alive but needs miracle.] Comms rookie QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman at LSU, so Sunday in N’Awlins will be a homecoming of sorts. Washington is coming off a bye ... but will it be glancing past Saints to a big home date with rival Eagles on deck? That alone might make The Big Easy a tempting home dog for the cover, but Derek Carr (hand/concussion) is very iffy, and it’s a steep drop to Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.

Ravens (8-5, -16) over @Giants (2-11), 27-13: [Playoffs: BAL narrowly on pace, NYG out.] Baltimore off a bye was bet up to a 16-point fave, biggest spread of season. But is that too much? Consider: NYG has won past three meetings at home over Ravens (last in ‘22), and BAL is 1-3 covering when spread is at least seven. Derrick Henry will maul Giants’ bottom-five run D, and Lamar Jackson is a mismatch vs. Drew Lock. But still lean Biggies getting 16.

Jets (3-10, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (3-10), 24-16: [Playoffs: Ha! Both out.] It’s the ugly Christmas sweater of games. Aaron Rodgers has actually been pretty good lately despite the won-lost record and the wailing, and he’s certainly rungs above Mac Jones. NYJ is better on defense, too.

@Broncos (8-5, -4) over Colts (6-7), 27-18: [Playoffs: DEN narrowly on pace, IND needs close to a miracle.] Both teams off byes for a huge game in AFC playoff chase. Temps at Mile High expected in mid-50s, a break for dome-swelling Colts. But Anthony Richardson has struggled in four road starts (sub-50% accuracy, six picks), and defense is Denver’s calling card. Broncos are 6-1 ATS when favored. Ride it.

@Eagles (11-2, -5 1/2) over Steelers (10-3), 21-19: [Playoffs: PIT clinches with win or MIA/IND losses, PHI is in but clinches division with win and WAS loss.] Our Game of the Week first alternate is not far-fetched as a Super Bowl preview. And it’s a state battle that finds Philly on a 10-0 series run at home. In fact Steelers last won in the Eagles’ nest in 1965. (The QBs were Norm Snead and a person named Bill Nelson.) PIT is 4-0 as an underdog so beware the upset, with Steelers’ run D an able challenge for NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley. Lean scorchin’ hot Birds at home, but Steelers with the points.

@Cardinals (6-7, -6) over Patriots (3-10), 24-21: [Playoffs: NE is out, ARI alive but needs close to a miracle.] New England is off a bye; Zona is playing for its playoff life after three consecutive losses. Cardbirds and Kyler Murray have too much at stake to let this one slip, but steadily improving Drake Maye has helped Pats cover in four of past six games and see that trend continuing here.

Buccaneers (7-6, +3) over @Chargers (8-5), 27-20: [Playoffs: TB in solid shape but may need to win division, LAC narrowly on pace.] Upset! Baker Mayfield is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season and Tampa has won three in a row — thanks to unearthing a big-time ground game. Oppositely, Chargers’ offense especially on the ground has not been the same since J.K. Dobbins’ injury absence. Bucs have been pretty good on the road (4-2) and should stay hot.

Packers (9-4, -3) over @Seahawks (8-5), 26-21: [Playoffs: GB in solid shape but not yet clinched, SEA in solid shape but might need to win division.] Sunday night stage gets quality matchup and possible NFC playoff preview. Gee Bees bring rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday in 34-31 loss to Detroit that earned Pack as much cred as most any win. Seattle on a four-game win steak but this is step up in competition.

@Vikings (11-2, -7) over Bears (4-9), 31-16: [Playoffs: CHI incredibly not yet eliminated, MIN clinches with win or LAR or SEA loss.] First of two Monday night games finds Bears lugging an 0-6 road record to Minneapolis and Vikes on a 6-1 series run including a 30-27 OT win three weeks ago. (But Chicago won at Minny last season.) Sam Darnold is 11-0 on TDs/picks in past four games, and Chitown’s O-line can’t protect Caleb Williams.

Falcons (6-7, -4) over @Raiders (2-11), 23-20: [Playoffs: ATL needs miracle unless it somehow wins division, LV is out.] The second Monday nighter is a stinker that welcomes in a Kirk Cousins on an 0-8 tailspin on TDs/picks in his past four. And that’s the better team here. Vegas hadn’t said by Thursday if Aidan O’Connell would be back or if Desmond Ridder would pitch. Doesn’t matter a ton. Like ATL to end a three-game road skid but lean Raiders to cover.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of afternoon Thursday.]