Greg Cote's NFL Week 13 picks

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

Miami was 5-3 all time on Thanksgiving entering its eighth Bird Day game Thursday night in Green Bay, with wins in 1973, ‘77, ‘93, 2003 and ‘06, and losses in 1999 and 2011. Most notable was a 16-14 win in Dallas in 1993, which Dolfan old-timers may recall as “the Leon Lett game.” (I was there.) It was a rare snowstorm in Dallas. Dolphins trailed 14-13 with 15 seconds left as Pete Stoyanovich went in for a 41-yard field goal try. It was blocked! But Lett, a Cowboys defensive lineman, tried to fall on the ball, slipped and knocked it forward. Miami recovered and a winning Fins field goal — the gift from Lett — ensued. Fast forward 31 years and Tua Tagovailoa brought to Lambeau an 0-7 record in games played in 40 degrees or below like Thursday’s. Modern narratives are that the Dolphins can’t beat good teams and can’t win when it’s really cold. “I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go,” Tagovailoa said. “Bring it on.” Find my full Dolphins-Packers prediction capsule separately HERE.

GAME OF THE WEEK

EAGLES (9-2) at RAVENS (8-4)

Line: BAL by 3.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 31-27.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS.

Game of the Week picks are rarely easier than the anointing of this Bird Bowl. These cities a two-hour drive apart are two of the five clear betting favorites to reach the Super Bowl (along with Lions, Chiefs and Bills). We also get the delicious duel of RB kings with Saquon Barkley (off that 255-yard game) and Derrick Henry. Plus the great QB matchup in Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Eagles sizzle in on a seven-game win streak, and Philly is as good on the road as Ravens are at home. Eagles have the better defense overall, but Crows have the elite run D to limit Barkley — if anybody can. Can I see an upset? Yeah. But I also have little hesitation to ever saddle up Jackson, Henry and the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense on its home field.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

STEELERS (8-3) at BENGALS (4-7)

Line: CIN by 3.

Cote’s pick: PIT, 27-23.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird as the holiday season arrives full force. “Pittsbaawwk!” Vladimir and Estragon weren’t waiting for Godot as long as NFL fans have been waiting for the Bengals to start being good. Apparently the folks who have Cincinnati as the betting favorite are still waiting. Not me. Godot never arrived in Samuel Beckett’s play, and neither will the Bengals. Cincy is off a bye and Joe Burrow is 3-2 vs. PIT with 11 TDs — but also eight INTs. Pitt’s big defense will rise up and win this. After last Thursday’s loss to Cleveland, Mike Tomlin won’t let Ohio beat him two straight. “Loved the literary reference to Beckett,” notes U-Bird. “Waiting for Godaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 13:

Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day picks were @Lions (10-1, -10) over Bears (4-7), 34-16; Cowboys (4-7, -3 1/2) over Giants (2-9), 24-17; and Dolphins (5-6, +3 1/2) over Packers (8-3), 27- 23: Find all three full prediction capsules separately here.

@Chiefs (10-1, -12 1/2) over Raiders (2-9), 28-13: Week’s lone “Black Friday” game shines light on how good Chiefs really are with eight of the wins by one score. K.C. beat Vegas 27-20 in October and is on a 19-4 roll in AFC West rivalry — but one of those losses was 20-14 last Christmas Day at Arrowhead. Chiefs 5-0 at home and LV 1-5 away. K.C. might have RB Isiah Pacheco back from injury, and like homies’ defense to rattle new Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell.

Chargers (7-4, -2 1/2) over @Falcons (6-5), 27-16: Gave the home dog a long look here, with ATL coming off a bye and LAC off a short week after losing Monday night in the Harbaugh Bowl. But Bolts are 3-2 on road and 2-0 in East, and Birds are on a two-game skid and have lost two straight at home (3-3). Huge edge on D for L.A., and Justin Herbert is picking up steam.

@Vikings (9-2, -3 1/2) over Cardinals (6-5), 24-22: Zona’s four-game win streak perished in Seattle last week as Kyler Murray absorbed five sacks. Vikes have won four in a row vs. a soft stretch of schedule. Medium-high upset shot for Cacti here. Go with Minnesota in the home-dome but I’ll hedge on Cardbirds with the points.

Colts (5-7, -2 1/2) over @Patriots (3-9), 23-20: Indy is 2-4 on the road and NE 1-4 at home. Anthony Richardson is wildly inaccurate and Drake Maye is a rookie turnover machine. Anybody wanna win? A Patriots home upset would not surprise, but Colts have more offensive pop and Pats’ D has been a bit of a disappointment.

@Jets (3-8, +2) over Seahawks (6-5), 19-16: Upset! It’s Geno Smith vs. his ex-mates, but the Jets and Aaron Rodgers spoil the homecoming. Jets are coming off a bye week (however chaotic), and their 2-3 home record includes three losses by a combined five points. You have heard of the blind squirrel finding an acorn? NYJ leans on defense and finds a way here.

@Commanders (7-5, -5 1/2) over Titans (3-8), 30-16: Tennessee is coming off a nice upset win in Houston, and Washington off three straight losses that have seen Jayden Daniels’ rookie of the year chances cascade from prohibitive fave to shaky. Daniels has been sacked 10 times in that three-game skid. Turnovers infect both teams so expect that to steer the result. See a bounceback game from Daniels and his offense.

Texans (7-5, -4) over @Jaguars (2-9), 24-21: Jaguars have lost four in a row and are 0-6 on the road, and Houston has won its past six trips to J’Ville in this AFC South rivalry. But Texans have been middling since that 5-1 start, with C.J. Stroud emitting sophomore slump vibes — and, coming off a bye, Jax might have QB Trevor Lawrence back from his shoulder injury. Like a rebound win for Houston, but home dogs with the points.

@Saints (4-7, +2 1/2) over Rams (5-6), 27-24: Upset! N’Awlins is coming off a bye and L.A. off a Sunday night loss, boosting home dog Saints as a tempting upset possibility worth a long look. Then a second look. Saints have won two in a row with stout defense, and Alvin Kamara is poised for a big game against LAR’s weak run defense.

Buccaneers (5-6, -6) @Panthers (3-8), 31-17: Carolina had won two straight before a narrow loss to Chiefs last week, the turnaround pinned on improvement by what had been a horrid defense. But Panthers have lost three straight and seven of past eight to Tampa in NFC South rivalry. Bucs also are 3-2 n road this year, the losses both in overtime. See more Baker Mayfield magic vs. a Cats defense still allowing most points in league.

@Bills (9-2, -7) over 49ers (5-6), 23-18: Preseason, this Sunday nighter looked like it might be a Super Bowl preview. Buffalo has lived up to its end of that; San Fran has not. Now, as of midweek, Niners QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) remained at risk of missing a second straight game, with sackman Nick Bosa and tackle Trent Williams also iffy. Meanwhile Bills ride a six-game win streak, are 5-0 at home, are coming off a bye and will be more OK with the forecast of 20s and maybe snow. And Josh Allen has been great at home, 12-2 on TDs/picks with a 112 passer rating. Still hunch that Niners’ desperation and the weather will combine to keep the score inside the bet-line.

@Broncos (7-5, -5 1/2) over Browns (3-8), 19-17: Low on sizzle, maybe, but should be a good one for Monday night stage. Rookie QB Bo Nix has Denver in playoff chase and Sean Payton climbing coach of year charts. Nix has been 8-0 on TDs/picks the past three games. Broncos also have won 13 of past 15 meetings with Browns including last season. But Cleveland showed in upset of Pittsburgh last Thursday that it has fight left, and Myles Garrett should rattle Nix enough to lean Browns-with-points.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of midday Wednesday.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Enjoyed a solid Week 12 with 9-4s both straight-up and vs. the Evil Betting Line last week. That included a mini-upset with Seahawks over Cardinals and a pair of dogs-with-points covers by the Bears and Cowboys. One important note: I had San Fran over Green Bay in my Upset of the Week and lost it badly but I offer an asterisk by way of explaining that 49ers QB Brock Purdy was not ruled out until after I’d made my pick. In unfortunate situations like that my pick stands. (Not sure Niners would’ve won anyway.) Oh well, still a stout week. [Note: Our Thursday Thanksgiving Day picks were @Lions (10-1, -10) over Bears (4-7), 34-16; Cowboys (4-7, -3 1/2) over Giants (2-9), 24-17; and — upset! — Dolphins (5-6, +3 1/2) over Packers (8-3), 27- 23. Find all three full prediction capsules separately here.]

Week 12: 9-4, .692 overall; 9-4, .692 vs. spread.

Season: 116-63, .648 overall; 95-81-3, .540 vs. spread.

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