NFL DFS Week 12 Optimal Lineup

Last week’s success was likely determined by the number of Lions you had stacked in your lineup and if you played Taysom Hill.

Playing Hill (and his 46.52 DraftKings points) alone was probably enough to cash in most daily tournaments. I included The Human Swiss Army Knife in this space the previous two weeks to mixed results, and missed out on cashing by 0.72 DK points in Week 11 without him.

The Week 11 Milly Maker winner obviously had Hill and double-stacked Jared Goff (37.58) with his primary receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown (41.70) and Jameson Williams (25.60). Crcingthdrn’s Detroit stack was a clever way to gain leverage on the Lions’ running game in an expected blowout.

Of course, it didn’t really matter considering every one on Detroit’s sideline, including the guy who holds the battery pack for Dan Campbell’s headset, scored a touchdown in the 52-6 annihilation of the Jaguars.

This week, everything begins with the siren song of Tommy Cutlets and his minimum salary ($4,000) at quarterback.

Before Daniel Jones was benched (and eventually released) by the Giants, I was considering targeting a Buccaneers defense allowing the most fantasy points to QBs this season. But the vibe has shifted, and this reeks of the G-Men packing it in with multiple players, including defensive captain Dexter Lawrence questioning head coach Brian Daboll’s initial decision to sit Danny Dimes down.

Starting Tommy DeVito will allow to call your shot this week, and fit almost anyone you want into your lineup, but many will choose that path of least resistance, which gives us an opportunity to gain leverage on the field.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $177.86 this season, so I’m in the red $17.14 with an average score of 131.06 points through 11 weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 90.16

— Week 2: 144.38

— Week 3: 100.38

— Week 4: 180.78

— Week 5: 147.14

— Week 6: 126.72

— Week 7: 132.98

— Week 8: 114.84

— Week 9: 168.48

— Week 10: 97.16

— Week 11: 138.58

Week 12 Lineup

— QB: C.J. Stroud, Texans ($6,500)

Sequels are almost never as good as the original, so why invest in DeVito, hoping this is The Godfather, Part II as opposed to The Godfather, Part III, when you can utilize an elite QB who’s been due for a big game and got his top weapon back after a lengthy absence last week? Since Week 7, the Titans have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, according to Fantasy Pros.

— RB: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs ($5,700)

Hunt has multi-TD upside with Kansas City as a 10 1/2-point favorite at Carolina and Isiah Pacheco still sidelined. The Panthers have allowed 16 total TDs to running backs in 10 games.

— RB: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders ($5,600)

Robinson is likely priced lower than he should be in matchup where Washington is a 10 1/2-point favorite at home. The Cowboys are allowing 151 rushing yards per game, including a league-high 14 rushing TDs from inside the 10-yard line.

— WR: Nico Collins, Texans ($7,600)

Stacking Collins with Stroud is a bet-on-talent play to get a low-popularity stack with upside. He finished with four receptions for 54 yards on seven targets in his return on Monday night, but his 77-yard TD on the first play from scrimmage was negated by an infuriating ineligible man downfield call. Is there a more pointless penalty in the NFL?

— WR: Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($7,000)

Evans probably could’ve played in Week 10, but Tampa Bay played it cautious before its bye week. His hamstring injury will likely scare most of the field away this week, but he won’t have any limitations and needs 665 yards in seven games to extend his streak of 1,000-yard receiving seasons to 11 (or every season he’s been in the NFL). Evans will also likely draw a matchup with Deonte Banks, who has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route run to opposing wide receivers this season.

— WR: Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,700)

Will Levis has played better since returning from injury, and as long as the targets he continues to pepper Ridley with are mostly accurate, this is a high-upside bring back for my Texans stack. Houston has allowed seven top-10 wide receiver finishes this season, including four since Week 8.

— TE: Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys ($2,500)

With Jake Ferguson still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, Schoonmaker is one of three solid pay-down options at tight end this week — Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,400) and Theo Johnson ($2,900) are the others. He had six receptions for 43 yards in his only other start this season and six receptions for 56 yards after Ferguson left Monday night’s game.

— FLEX: Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($5,800)

There is a low-key possibility Kansas City does to the Panthers what the Lions did to the Jaguars, so stacking Kelce and Hunt could capture a significant portion of those points. Plus, Kelce is coming off a dud at Buffalo and Carolina has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

— DST: Washington Commanders ($3,500)

The Commanders host Cooper Rush/Trey Lance this week. The Cowboys have scored 16 points, allowed eight sacks, and committed six turnovers in two games without Dak Prescott.

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