Drake Maye coming off best start but best is yet to come for Patriots rookie
Published in Football
When watching Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye play this season, it’s important to try to imagine what it will look like when he has a more impressive supporting cast around him.
Maye is coming off his best NFL game, but he still makes routine rookie mistakes. He leads quarterbacks in PFF’s turnover-worthy play rate and has turned the ball over in four of six NFL starts.
There’s reason to believe his highs will be even higher in the near future, however, and those errors should dissipate with more development.
The Patriots wide receiver and offensive line position groups rank among the worst in the NFL, which understandably affects Maye’s play.
Maye’s pass-catchers have earned a 64.1 receiving grade this season from PFF, which ranks 30th in the NFL. His blockers rank 31st in pass-protection grade.
Going deeper, among 109 wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Ja’Lynn Polk rank 49th, 86th and 109th, respectively, in PFF’s receiving grade. And out of 202 qualified offensive linemen, Mike Onwenu, Michael Jordan, Vederian Lowe, Ben Brown, Demontrey Jacobs and Layden Robinson rank 77th, 134th, 137th, 183rd, 188th and 194th in pass-blocking grade.
It hasn’t helped that Patriots coaches are constantly switching personnel at wide receiver, mixing in K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, Javon Baker and Tyquan Thornton (before he was cut) at wide receiver and making changes on the starting offensive line, but you can’t really blame them for trying different combinations to see if something sticks.
Based on his supporting cast, it doesn’t come as a major surprise that Maye ranks just 19th out of qualified quarterbacks with a -0.02 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, 29th in PFF’s passing grade and 23rd in overall PFF grade.
But he’s also 13th in QBR and 10th with a +2.1 completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
In Sunday’s game, he set career highs with a 12.4 EPA and 11.2 CPOE. His 79.4 PFF grade and 77.7 PFF passing grade were only topped in the one quarter he played before entering concussion protocol in Week 8 against the Jets.
Maye is at his best when creating plays out of structure, ranking among the NFL’s top quarterbacks in both create rate and EPA per dropback in those situations, comparing favorably to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, via FTN Data.
Maye explained Wednesday that he’s trying to get his receivers to simply “play football.”
“I think sometimes these guys get into running the route that’s on the sheet of paper, or at this depth. I think at some point just turns to playing ball and making plays,” Maye said. “So I think we’re trying to figure that out a little bit. I think Hunter (Henry) and those guys are starting to see it. I think last week on the play that ended up coming back on a penalty, what Hunter did to kind of sitting in the zone, and little stuff like that. I think you’re gonna start to see a lot of strides in that area, and some stuff with different guys moving around and kind of getting comfortable in their spot, you can see some evolution of different things that will help us make some more plays.”
It will help to get the same consistent group of wide receivers around Maye, so they can gain chemistry. But overall, overhauling the wide receiver group this offseason and bringing in a legitimate No. 1 target, whether that’s a free agent like Tee Higgins or prospect like Travis Hunter or Tet McMillan will go a long way in making Maye more efficient.
He also compares favorably to rookie quarterbacks like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson when charting his EPA per dropback compared to his team’s pass-blocking grade.
The Patriots could be getting help on their offensive line soon with 2022 first-round pick Cole Strange returning to practice, where he could slot in at left guard or center. But the Patriots are expected to add help on their offensive line this offseason, as well, through free agency and/or the draft.
Finally, as ESPN’s Ben Solak points out, though Maye ranks low in completion percentage, EPA per dropback, success rate and explosive pass rate on intermediate to deep passing targets, his off-target rate is only 21.6%, which is ninth best in the NFL.
Maye is giving his wide receivers a shot on passes of 10-plus yards, they’re simply not making plays for their quarterback.
The Patriots face the Dolphins this week. Head coach and offensive guru Mike McDaniel has been impressed with what he’s seen from Maye, and it sounds like he’s studied him closely.
“I saw a true quarterback who has the ability to gain the confidence of his teammates and lead and orchestrate an offense. A guy who can make plays in a multitude of ways,” McDaniel told reporters Wednesday. “The Patriots are kind of feeling that right now where he’s a guy who can see down the field, can play fearlessly in the pocket and make every throw — with the arm strength to do it.
“But also a very good athlete that has some juice and can make plays off schedule. That’s been a huge bonus to their offense of late. … He’s a guy you expect will continue to get better. It’s always impressive when rookie quarterbacks make plays at the NFL level, because there’s a lot coming at them … I think it’s a credit to him and his preparation, and their coaching staff, as well.”
The Patriots are 3-8 with holes all of their roster. They’re led by a rookie head coach with an inexperienced offensive playcaller and a rookie defensive coordinator.
No one expected the Patriots to compete this season. But the year will be a success if Maye continues to progress. So far, the returns on Maye have been better than anticipated, and not only is the rookie quarterback an unfinished product, he’ll also be significantly more efficient when the Patriots can fix their issues at wide receiver and on their offensive line.
With little help, Maye already looks like a legitimate starting quarterback despite being just 22 years old.
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