Sam Farmer's Week 9 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 12-4 (.750); season 78-45 (.634). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-8 (.500); season 67-55-1 (.549). Off: Steelers, 49ers. Times Pacific.

TEXANS (6-2) AT JETS (2-6)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Jets by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Jets couldn't keep the lowly New England Patriots at bay, so they're going to be hard pressed to put the clamps on C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Houston tends to wind up in really close games.

Pick: Texans 24, Jets 20

CHARGERS (4-3) AT BROWNS (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

There's a good chance Jameis Winston isn't going to have a hot hand two weeks in a row, so the Chargers could rack up some turnovers. Ladd McConkey is coming off a breakout game for Los Angeles.

Pick: Chargers 21, Browns 18

COWBOYS (3-4) AT FALCONS (5-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 2 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Dallas is having a tough time competing without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Maybe Parsons comes back for this. Atlanta can run and throw, and has a defense that's decent enough to slow the run.

Pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 24

BRONCOS (5-3) AT RAVENS (5-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 9 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Broncos have won five of six, although not against premier teams. The Ravens are due for a bounce back after a dispiriting loss to Cleveland. Denver has a really good defense that will keep it close.

Pick: Ravens 24, Broncos 20

DOLPHINS (2-5) AT BILLS (6-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 6 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Although Miami is better with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, the team can get out-muscled as it did against Arizona. That's the physical way the Josh Allen-led Bills have played. Amari Cooper boosts Buffalo too.

Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 21

SAINTS (2-6) AT PANTHERS (1-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

Two bad teams on long losing streaks. If the Saints get Derek Carr back, as expected, it will be a game changer for them. Carolina just traded away its best receiver in Diontae Johnson.

Pick: Saints 18, Panthers 12

RAIDERS (2-6) AT BENGALS (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 7 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Bengals are getting healthier on defense. Joe Burrow and his receivers are going to put up some points. The Raiders have a pretty good defense but it's just on the field too long.

Pick: Bengals 26, Raiders 17

COMMANDERS (6-2) AT GIANTS (2-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 3 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Presumably Jayden Daniels is getting healthier, and the Commanders are flying high after that Hail Mary victory. The Giants can't seem to figure out how to score.

Pick: Commanders 24, Giants 13

PATRIOTS (2-6) AT TITANS (1-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Titans by 3 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.

With the world thinking they're soft, the Patriots responded to their coach and beat up the Jets. This could come down to the trenches, and the Titans' defensive line is much better than the Patriots' offensive line.

Pick: Titans 21, Patriots 17

BEARS (4-3) AT CARDINALS (4-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Cardinals almost never win two games in a row, so this is a new feeling. They play hard but they're not that talented. The Bears are more talented and that should push them over the top.

Pick: Bears 23, Cardinals 21

JAGUARS (2-6) AT EAGLES (5-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 7 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Eagles are getting healthier on offense, and Saquon Barkley is a problem for any defense. Jacksonville is getting better but it's still losing games. Philadelphia wins handily at home.

Pick: Eagles 31, Jaguars 20

RAMS (3-4) AT SEAHAWKS (4-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Rams by 1 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Rams are reborn on offense now that they've got Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back. Plus, they usually play well at Seattle. The availability of DK Metcalf is a big factor in this matchup.

Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 24

LIONS (6-1) AT PACKERS (6-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

If Jordan Love plays, he'll definitely be slowed by that groin injury. Jared Goff is playing so well for the Lions, and that offense is rolling. Still, it's a division game and should be fairly close.

Pick: Lions 28, Packers 24

COLTS (4-4) AT VIKINGS (5-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 5 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Colts are playing Joe Flacco, and that gives them a better chance than Anthony Richardson would. The Vikings should rebound after back-to-back losses, but this won't be easy.

Pick: Vikings 27, Colts 21

BUCCANEERS (4-4) AT CHIEFS (7-0)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 8 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Chiefs haven't been blowing away their opponents, but they have a solid defense and they've got Patrick Mahomes. Without his full arsenal, Baker Mayfield has been pressing.

Pick: Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 23