Analysis: Here's why Seahawks might be losing their home-field advantage
Published in Football
SEATTLE — Few stadiums in any sport stay full to the bitter end if the game fans are watching is indeed bitter.
So it was hardly an indictment of the 12s when Lumen Field began to clear out in the second half of Sunday’s 31-10 loss to Buffalo. The Bills took a 31-3 lead early in the fourth quarter in what turned out to be the second-worst home loss for the Seahawks since 2011.
Fitting the dreary atmosphere, a game that began bathed in sun progressed to rain about midway through. By the end, it only made sense that of the fans who were left, most were those of the visiting team.
It’s worth noting that the game was the 176th consecutive sellout at Lumen Field dating to 2003, proof of the devotion of Seahawks fans.
Still, the late clearing out of the home fans was noticeable enough that it caught the eye of Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith.
Asked a question how the game might have been different had the Seahawks scored touchdowns on the two goal-line situations in the second quarter, Smith said:
“I think it’s a much different game. Hats off to Buffalo. They came in and beat us at home. Their fans travel well. It was really loud in there and kind of felt like we were on the road at times. They came out and fought and beat us. We can say we made mistakes, but they capitalized. Those are things we’ve got to get better at, and we’ve got a big week ahead so the time is now.”
The reference to it feeling like a road game understandably drew attention on social media and raised the obvious question — is one of the better home-field advantages in NFL history disappearing?
As the sellout streak shows, the crowds haven’t gone anywhere.
Some wonder if the makeup of the crowds has changed as NFL ticket prices continue to increase.
According to data from SportsCasting.com published in August, the average price of a ticket to an NFL game increased 9% this year to $132.
The highest average get-in price is Detroit at $254. The lowest are New Orleans ($43) and Jacksonville ($48). The Seahawks sit in the middle at 14th, at $135, nestled between the Rams and Dolphins (each $141) and Ravens ($133).
Those prices, which for really good games can fetch much higher values on the resale market, make it tempting for some fans to sell. Inevitably many of those who want tickets are coming from out of town.
Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said Monday it’s up to the team to assure that the home crowd has something to cheer for and quiet those from elsewhere.
“We have to win,’’ Macdonald said. “We’ve got to win, period, so opposing fans won’t want to show up if we’re consistently kicking butt and doing what we’re supposed to do. Our fans, I think, are doing a great job and they’re sticking with us all the way through the end of the game. I know we’re fighting and they’re fighting with us and we have to do a better job of putting a product out there that they want to root really hard for.”
Therein lies the rub.
The Seahawks, who have one of the best home-field records over the last two decades, has hit the skids of late in that department.
The Seahawks are 79-39 at home since 2010, fifth best in the NFL. The Seahawks are just 15-15 at home since 2021 including 2-3 this season. The Buffalo loss was the third straight at Lumen, all in the span of 21 days.
Gone for now are the Legion of Boom glory days of 2012-16 when they went 34-6 at home, including 8-0 in 2012.
It makes sense given that the Seahawks have been a .500 team since 2021 — they are 29-30 since that season, Russell Wilson’s final season.
That is in keeping with recent NFL trends, which has seen home-team winning percentages dip over the last decade, including this season. After Pittsburgh’s win at home over the Giants Monday night, home teams are 59-60 this season.
According to sportoddshistory.com, which has data dating to 1952, four of the 13 lowest NFL home-winning percentages have occurred since 2015. That includes the COVID season of 2020 when home teams went just 127-128, a stat that comes with an obvious asterisk.
The Seahawks went 7-1 that year at Lumen when no crowds were allowed, their best home record since 2016. They haven’t been better than 6-2 at home in any of the eight seasons since, apparently proving crowd noise isn’t the sole factor in playing well at home.
Home teams went just 157-151 in 2021 (51.1%), the sixth-worst home record in league history, and 2019 wasn’t much different (130-120, 52%). Home teams haven’t won more than 60% of games since 2018.
Home teams began the 2023 season 37-41 before rallying and finishing 149-118, 55.1%.
Two commonly cited factors are easier and more comfortable travel and training staffs better equipped to prepare players for the rigors of trips. The increasing use of replay, which has decreased the human factor of officiating following many studies that showed home teams in all sports did, over time, benefit from favorable calls.
Most pressing for the Seahawks is figuring out how to stop their home woes before hosting the Rams on Sunday.
Anther home loss would border on the historical.
The last time the Seahawks lost more than three straight at home was 2008, when they lost five in a row en route to a 4-12 record in Mike Holmgren’s final season.
The Seahawks have had in-season home losing streaks of four or more just four times in team history — eight in 1980 (when the Seahawks went 0-8 at home), five in 2008 and 1992, and four in their inaugural season of 1976.
Before this season, they had lost three in a row at home only three times since moving into Lumen Field in 2002, though two of those came in 2022 and 2021.
The Seahawks haven’t just lost three in a row at home but have given fans little to cheer about, leading for just a little over a combined eight minutes in those games, outscored a combined 40-16 in the first half, the only TD coming on a 102-yard fumble return.
The Seahawks had 14 full possessions in the first half of the last three home games. Those drives have resulted in eight punts, three field goals, and turning the ball over on an interception, a fumble and a failed fourth down.
“I wish I knew the answer to that,’’ Macdonald said Monday of the slow starts at home. “It’s definitely a point of emphasis and it could be such a weapon for us at home starting with a lead, forcing them to throw the ball more, all those things.
“… The beginning part of those games are really electric and I know our guys are really excited and the emphasis will be we’ll tailor some practice things around it and definitely be at a point of conversation.’’
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