NFL DFS Week 7 Optimal Lineup

I knew the Cowboys would be chasing points against the Lions last week, I just didn’t anticipate they’d be doing it in a potato sack.

My double-stack of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert fizzled out in a positive game environment that featured 56 total points, combining for a measly 29.62 points on DraftKings. Detroit won 47-9 and the over/under was 52.5 points.

Fortunately, A.J. Brown (26.60 DK points), Tyler Allgeier (22.80) and my Buccaneers stack of Bucky Irving (18.50) and the Tampa Bay defense (17.00) came through.

Hiding in plain sight was Bucs’ third-stringer Sean Tucker, who went off for 192 total yards and two touchdowns in a 51-27 shellacking of the Saints, smashing the main slate on DraftKings for 37.20 points.

Tucker was included in joenip166’s Milly Maker-winning lineup as part of an unconventional Tampa Bay-centric mega-stack of four players — the other three were Chris Godwin (who also smashed), tight end Cade Otton and the Bucs’ defense. Amazingly, Tucker was only utilized in .04% of lineups, so kudos to joenip166 (an obvious Buccaneers fan).

I, like the field, assumed Irving would receive most of the work in Rachaad White’s absence, and while the rookie had a nice day, he essentially split time with Tucker in the second half when Tampa Bay outscored New Orleans 27-0.

Sometimes the next man up doesn’t always slide into the top spot on the depth chart completely. Sometimes players have specific roles, with specific backups for those roles.

When a star player or someone with a significant role in an offense gets hurt, it usually makes sense to utilize the obvious play in smaller tournaments or cash games, but in massive tournaments like the Milly Maker, it can pay significant dividends to reach a little deeper.

The type of leverage Tucker produced last week is priceless.

The second-year tailback is a talented runner who I really liked coming out of Syracuse a few years back. The only reason he wasn’t drafted was because he had an undiagnosed heart condition that prevented him from participating in the NFL Combine.

In retrospect, this performance wasn’t surprising.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $117.86 this season, so I’m in the black $12.86 with an average score of 131.59 points through six weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 90.16

— Week 2: 144.38

— Week 3: 100.38

— Week 4: 180.78

—Week 5: 147.14

— Week 6: 126.72

Week 7 Lineup

— QB: Geno Smith, Seahawks ($5,800)

The second and third-fastest offenses in the NFL will be on display in Atlanta, and neither team has been shy about slingin’ the rock. Smith is the overall QB7 in fantasy through six weeks, and has attempted at least 40 passes in four of the last five games. He’s thrown for at least 284 yards in every game since Week 2, but only has one passing TD in each game this season. Only Carolina-Washington features a higher over/under this week (both game totals are over 50). If Smith keeps this volume up, he’s likely to get some positive TD regression against a Falcons’ pass rush that is 28th in pressure rate (28.5%) and last in sack rate (2.6%). Smith eats from a clean pocket, completing 77.9% of his passes (4th in NFL) for 7.9 yards per pass attempt (12th).

— RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,900)

This is the third game on the main slate with an over/under above 50. Gibbs is the overall RB13 in PPR formats this season, but has yet to produce a ceiling game. I’m thinking the Vikings are a better matchup for the all-purpose dynamo than the bruiser David Montgomery, and their constant blitzing should allow Gibbs plenty of targets out of the backfield.

— RB: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders ($6,400)

Start your running backs against the Panthers. According to Pro Football Reference, Carolina is allowing the most DK points to the position with 34.9 per game. The o/u is 51.5 and Washington is favored by 9 1/2, which gives the Commanders an implied total of 30.5 points. Robinson is currently questionable to play after missing last week, so if he’s inactive, simply pivot to Austin Ekeler ($5,900) who could have a big game regardless and upgrade another position with the $500 you save.

— WR: Drake London, Falcons ($6,900)

In the last three weeks, London has averaged almost 12 targets, eight receptions for 97.3 yards and 22.73 DK points per game. The Seahawks will be without two of their top three cornerbacks this week, with Pro Bowler Riq Woolen and Tre Brown already ruled out.

— WR: DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,800)

Metcalf has had three 100-yard receiving games this season, but none in the month of October. He’s coming off arguably his worst game of the season, where he only managed three receptions for 48 yards on 11 targets against the 49ers. Few receivers can match Metcalf’s ceiling and that’s what we’re targeting in our stack with Smith.

— WR: Jalen Coker, Panthers ($3,000)

The undrafted rookie from Holy Cross has operated as Carolina’s No. 3 wideout the last two weeks, bringing in seven receptions for 98 yards. The Panthers usually have to go pass-heavy when playing from behind, and that’s on the table considering they’re almost double-digit underdogs this week. Coker is an excellent punt option against the Commanders, who are allowing the third-most PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. I also like the Browns’ Elijah Moore ($3,200) and Cedric Tillman ($3,000). Either one could be Week 7’s Sean Tucker with everybody expecting David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy to soak up the targets after Amari Cooper’s trade to Buffalo.

— TE: Grant Calcaterra, Eagles ($3,200)

With Dallas Goedert (hamstring) out, Calcaterra is a solid bargain at tight end. Goedert left after three snaps last week, allowing the sixth-round pick out of SMU to handle a 92% snap share and 88% route share while catching each of his four targets for 67 yards. The Giants have allowed at least four receptions to tight ends in five of their six games this season.

— FLEX: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,500)

Why punt with Coker and Calcaterra? So we can fit this guy into The Lineup. Remember how I mentioned the Lions were quite good vs. the run, but featured a pass funnel defense last week? Just because the Cowboys couldn’t take advantage, doesn’t mean the best receiver in football won’t, especially without Aidan Hutchinson putting pressure on Sam Darnold. Jefferson has had at least 124 receiving yards in six of the seven games since Aaron Glenn became Detroit’s defensive coordinator. He’s produced 29 receptions on 39 targets for 556 yards and two TDs in his last three games vs. the Lions.

— DST: New York Giants ($2,500)

The G-Men have been really solid on defense, ranking first in the NFL in sacks (26) and ninth in points allowed per game (20.2). They just held a good Bengals offense to 17 points and should be juiced for this division matchup. The Eagles have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.

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