NFL DFS Week 6 Optimal Lineup

The Lineup came within .12 points of cashing last week, which isn’t bad when you consider everything that went wrong.

The feast-or-famine roller coaster Josh Allen (14.64 DraftKings points) is on took another dip. Allen failed to score at least 15 points for the third time in the last four weeks. He’s surpassed 30 in his other two games this season.

Allen’s performance kept my Curtis Samuel (0.9 points) flier from taking off.

Lamar Jackson actually threw three touchdowns to tight ends in a high-scoring affair with the Bengals, but none of them were named Mark Andrews (9.5 points), who actually had four receptions for 55 yards in his best game of the season.

My saving grace was including Ja’Marr Chase (44.30 points), who went off for 193 yards on 10 receptions and two TDs against the Ravens.

This week’s slate includes two games with totals higher than 50 points, and both are infinitely stackable. The Commanders-Ravens feature the top two fantasy quarterbacks in the league. The Lions-Cowboys feature two high-powered offenses, two middle-of-the-pack defenses and the top two wide receivers on the slate.

I’m focusing my attention this week on the latter.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $117.86 this season, so I’m in the black $32.86 with an average score of 132.57 points through five weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 90.16

— Week 2: 144.38

— Week 3: 100.38

— Week 4: 180.78

— Week 5: 147.14

Week 6 Lineup

— QB: Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,700)

The over/under is 52.5 points, the highest total on the slate, with the Lions favored by 3. Dallas hasn’t consistently ran the ball well and will likely be chasing points against Detroit’s pass funnel defense who happens to be quite good vs. the run. Prescott is second in passing attempts (191), third in passing yards per game (284.8), and fifth in TD passes (eight).

— RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($5,400)

Rachaad White, who was limited on Wednesday with a foot injury before missing Thursday and Friday practices, is doubtful to play at New Orleans. I spent the first month of this season writing in my Waiver Wire Targets column that Irving had been the more explosive option for Tampa Bay, and was likely to supplant White at some point this season. He had already ran for 60 more yards on seven fewer carries while scoring the Buccaneers’ only rushing TD from a running back. He’s an excellent salary saver this week.

— RB: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons ($5,100)

Many are expecting Atlanta to finally unlock Bijan Robinson against the Panthers, but my spidey sense tells me he’s been playing hurt and a lingering hamstring issue could hold him back in a premium matchup. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including nine TDs in five games, so the Falcons will run the ball regardless. Allgeier provides leverage against Robinson, and if Atlanta jumps out to a big lead or is salting the clock away late, Allgeier would likely see those carries. So there’s value here even if Robinson plays well.

— WR: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($8,600)

Lamb has yet to surpass 100 yards through five weeks and the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They’ve already allowed over 100 yards to Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, and Lamb is a better version of both. He absolutely smashed Detroit last year in Week 17 with 13 receptions on 17 targets for 227 yards and a TD.

— WR: A.J. Brown, Eagles ($7,800)

Brown has been on the shelf since the opener in Brazil, where he had five receptions on 10 targets for 119 yards and a TD against the Packers. He missed three games with a hamstring injury and then Philadelphia had a bye last week. Many might fade the top-tier playmaker in his first game back, but the Browns’ defense is hurting and play an incredible amount of man coverage. They’ve played man on at least 50% of their opponents’ pass plays in three straight games, and that’s playing with fire against Brown.

— WR: Xavier Hutchinson, Texans ($3,300)

Hutchinson has been operating essentially as Nico Collins’ understudy since the preseason. Collins is on IR and either Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell will be shadowed by the Patriots’ Christian Gonzalez. Hutchinson was highly productive at Iowa State as Brock Purdy’s go-to receiver, producing 254 receptions for 2,929 yards and 15 TDs during his three seasons in Ames. He provides leverage against those who believe this is Dell’s “smash” opportunity with Collins out.

— TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions ($5,500)

On the other side of my Cowboys double-stack, I’m bringing back LaPorta. After having one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end in NFL history, he’s yet to crack double-digit fantasy points in a single game (he did it 10 times last season). Frankly, it’s not his fault. LaPorta has only been targeted 14 times in four games. Coming out of a bye week, I’m thinking offensive coordinator Ben Johnson gets him involved early (and often) at Dallas.

— FLEX: Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys ($5,000)

Tolbert is the overall WR24 in PPR formats since Week 2, and produced seven receptions on 10 targets for 87 yards and the game-winning TD against the Steelers on Sunday night with Brandin Cooks (knee) sidelined. Cooks was placed on injured reserve last week. Tolbert leads Dallas with five red-zone targets, and the Lions have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

— DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600)

With Derek Carr out with an oblique injury, the Saints will start rookie Spencer Rattler in an important divisional matchup. The fifth-rounder looked like he had a lot of work to do this preseason, so I’m not convinced he’ll be able to handle the pressure of the moment or the barrage of blitzes Todd Bowles sends his way. This also correlates well with Irving having a big game.

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