NFL best bets: Pro bettors, handicappers try to extend 15-2-1 ATS run

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Oct 11, 2024

Published in Football

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LAS VEGAS — The Broncos are one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season.

Denver (3-2, 4-1 ATS) is already halfway toward surpassing its season win total of 5 1/2 after winning and covering its past three games.

Professional sports bettors Jeff Whitelaw and Cris Zeniuk made the Broncos their best bet last week in the Review-Journal and won when Denver defeated the Raiders, 34-18.

Whitelaw and Zeniuk are riding the Broncos again this week as 3-point home underdogs to the Chargers.

“The model has Denver No. 1 in defense, they’re well coached, (rookie quarterback Bo) Nix is making progress, and they’re home at elevation for a crucial divisional matchup,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris), who has hit four straight best bets in the RJ. “The Chargers are off the bye after facing weak teams with good results. The model doesn’t value them as much as the market does.

“(Chargers coach Jim) Harbaugh is great, and they get key players healthy. But three points is too much.”

Los Angeles won its first two games over the Raiders and Panthers before scoring only 10 points each in losses to the Steelers and Chiefs.

The Broncos, who have allowed only 11.3 points per game during their win streak, have won five straight games over the Chargers in Denver.

“I made the game pick’em, so I’m taking +3,” Whitelaw said. “I just like the home ’dog in a divisional game with a team that’s playing exceptional defense.”

Here are four more NFL best bets, which went 4-2 ATS last week and are 15-2-1 the past three weeks (home team in CAPS):

Lions (-3) over COWBOYS

Whitelaw also bet on Detroit, coming off a bye, as a small road favorite at Dallas, which lost, 28-25, to Baltimore in its last home game after trailing 28-6.

“The Lions have a great offensive line and a great running game, and I think they’re going to do what Baltimore did to Dallas. They’ll be able to control the line of scrimmage and run on them,” he said. “Dallas has a plethora of injuries defensively. They don’t even have a great defense when they’re all healthy, and they can’t seem to stop the run.”

JETS (+2 1/2) over Bills

New York as a small home underdog over Buffalo on “Monday Night Football” is another consensus best bet. Westgate SuperContest Gold leader “Dr. Alan” Dumond (17-6-2 ATS) and RJ NFL Challenge leader Doug Fitz (19-6) made the Jets their top play after coach Robert Saleh was fired.

“The Jets’ offense has struggled, and the firing of Saleh should light a fire and open up the offense. Teams are on an 18-11 ATS run the next game after their head coach is fired,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “It is a reasonable assumption that the fired head coach had lost control of the team or they didn’t like playing for him, maybe both.

“The added bonus of the Jets being a home ’dog can certainly help the motivation to play hard for the new head coach.”

Dumond noted that the Raiders rolled past the Giants, 30-6, last season in their first game after coach Josh McDaniels was fired and replaced by Antonio Pierce.

“We often see that NFL teams get a huge boost of positive energy and are very motivated to win their first game after their head coach is fired during the season to prove that it was their departed coach’s fault for their poor performance,” he said. “This is also an extremely important game for the Jets to even their record at 3-3 and tie the Bills for first place in the AFC East.

“On the flip side, the Bills are dealing with a lot of injuries on defense, and this is their third road game in a row.”

Bears (-1 1/2) over Jaguars

Legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger went 5-0 ATS last week in the RJ Challenge and made Chicago his best bet in Sunday’s 6:30 a.m. game at London.

“Leaving early for the London game is always better than traveling late,” he said. “The Bears arrived Tuesday morning. Because of (Hurricane Milton), the Jaguars will arrive in London on Friday. Bears’ pub visits already behind them.”

TITANS (-2 1/2) over Colts

SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, in second place in the RJ Challenge (16-7-2 ATS), likes the Titans to handle the Colts in Tennessee.

“The Colts are banged up across the board, and they just announced their best wide receiver, Michael Pittman, is out,” he said. “The Titans don’t have much on the offensive side, but their defense is pretty decent.”