Cannot use the word hot yet, but we’re definitely warming up after a rough start to our season of picks. Went 8-5-1 against the spread last week (Jaguars -3 was the push), including Dolphins’ win, Dallas’ upset at Pittsburgh and Giants-with-points in Seattle. Downside? Thinking Vegas would be an upset winner in Denver. Some upset picks you can defend even in defeat. But that was one of those what-was-I-thinking calls. Oh well. The bright side outshines that. Now Week 6 delivers a challenge all its own as nine of 14 games feature road favorites/home dogs. Time to turn our warm streak hot! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was 49ers (-3 1/2) over @Seahawks, 27-24.]

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Week 5: 9-5, .643 overall; 8-5-1, .615 vs. spread.

Season: 41-37, .526 overall; 38-37-3, .507 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

LIONS (3-1) at COWBOYS (3-2)

Line: DET by 3.

Cote’s pick: DET, 31-26.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

With conference favorite San Fran off to a rough start and nobody really buying into Minnesota or Washington yet, this has the heft of a heavyweight bout in a wide-open NFC. Tried talking myself into liking Dallas in a home-dog upset. Couldn’t do it. Detroit enjoys a big edge here in prep/rest — off a bye week while Cowboys played Sunday night — and that will help in a plan to limit Dak Prescott. With a bad ground game supporting Prescott, look for Aidan Hutchinson and that Lions pass rush to turn up the heat on Dak. Meantime the Boys are ravaged with defensive injuries and likely still won’t have Micah Parsons back. Detroit on a 6-1 run covering the spread as a road fave dating to last season. Dallas has won six straight in series but last year’s was a 20-19 gift on a Dan Campbell coaching error. It has haunted him. He wants and needs this.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

CHARGERS (2-2) at BRONCOS (3-2)

Line: LAC by 3.

Cote’s pick: DEN, 17-16.

TV: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Denver Broaaawwwk!” Two underwhelming offenses and the league’s top two scoring defenses makes mighty tempting the “under” here — even at a low, low 35 1/2. (Fun fact: Across the past five seasons the under has hit 73% of the time when the number is 37 or below.) Chargers are coming off a bye but Broncos have won three in a row in this AFC West rivalry and the past five in a row at Mile High. I’m saddling up that streak, a Denver defense that has allowed only 33 points total in three straight wins, and pass protection that is allowing rookie QB Bo Nix time to shine. “The best defense in this game is not the one of Jim Harbaugh’s creation,“ notes U-Bird. “Harbauaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 4:

Thursday night pick was 49ers (2-3, -3 1/2) over @Seahawks (3-2), 27-24.

Bears (3-2, -1 1/2) over Jaguars (1-4), 24-20, in London: Wake up to crumpets and tea for another NFL breakfast in London as Roger Goodell’s obsession with world domination continues. This time it’s Chicagoans being asked to fly 4,000 miles for their “home” game. Jax is high off its first win but we’re not buying an upset. Bears defense is disruptive, Caleb Williams’ offense is cooking, and Jags’ pass D is one of worst in league.

@Packers (3-2, -4 1/2) over Cardinals (2-3), 31-27: Temps could dip into the high-40s to make it feel like Lambeau as Pack aims to control the clock against Zona’s 28th-ranked run defense. Like Gee Bees but lean a Cards cover getting almost a touchdown. Arizona just stunned San Fran on the road after leading Buffalo into the second half, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has breathed life into Kyler Murray’s career. Pack needs to avoid another slow start or risk losing outright.

@Titans (1-3, -2 1/2) over Colts (2-3), 19-17: Indy opened a small favorite. Struck me as odd, and line shift proved me right. Colts swept AFC South rivalry last year but Titans had won five in a row prior and should again, at home and coming off bye. QB Anthony Richardson may return for Indy to supplant Joe Flacco. (Is that a good thing?) Don’t love either vs. TEN’s top-ranked pass D, especially with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) trending likely out again. Lean Nags with points, though.

Texans (4-1, -6 1/2) over @Patriots (1-4), 21-16: Upset alert? Houston could arrive at risk of a letdown after big win against Buffalo last week, and Pats should enjoy a home lift with rookie QB Drake Maye making his maiden pro start. Also, Texans begin life after Nico Collins, with their top WR on IR — although they might have RB Joe Mixon back. But can Pats’ bad O-line protect Maye? Watch NE’s defense keep it inside the bet-line in low-scoring game.

Buccaneers (3-2, -3 1/2) over @Saints (2-3), 23-20: N’Awlins will be without injured QB Derek Carr for a while starting here, and it’s enormous drop to inexperienced Jake Haener (likely) or rookie Spencer Rattler, especially coming off a short week after playing Monday. And Tampa played Thursday, a big prep/rest edge. Bucs also have won past two trips to Superdome. Make it three, but like Saints’ D to fashion the cover.

@Eagles (2-2, -9 1/2) over Browns (1-4), 30-13: Philly expects to have WRs A.J. Brown and De’Vonta Smith both playing for first time since Week 1 to unlock Jalen Hurts and what’s been a sputtering offense. Browns hope to have RB Nick Chubb back soon (finally) to help rescue awful Deshaun Watson, but this Sunday trends unlikely. Off a bye, Like Hurts’ Birds to roll big.

@Ravens (3-2, -6 1/2) over Commanders (4-1), 35-30: Our Game of the Week first-alternate should be an entertaining shootout. Teams meeting for first time since 2020, though stadiums are only 30 miles apart in this Battle of the Beltway series. Spicing the matchup further: Duel of Heisman-winning QBs in Lamar Jackson and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels leading the league’s top two scoring offenses. Riding with L-Jack, who’s back in MVP form, although Comms with points look good.

Steelers (3-2, -3) over @Raiders (2-3), 24-13: Defense has the spotlight here led by elite sackers Maxx Crosby of Vegas and T.J. Watt of Pitt. Difference is, Raiders have a great defensive player. Steelers have a great defensive team. Pittsburgh will grind it out against LV’s 30th-ranked run-D, and Watt and crew should dominate Vegas (again sans Davante Adams) and Aidan O’Connell.

Falcons (3-2, -6) over @Panthers (1-4), 31-16: Atlanta has enjoyed a long week after playing last Thursday, and Kirk Cousins is coming off a 509-yard passing game and has his Falcons offense percolating. Carolina’s defense is allowing 33 points per game worst in the NFL. Cats have won past two at home vs. Falcons, but that mini-streak ends here.

Bengals (1-4, -3 1/2) over @Giants (2-3), 27-23: Losing records but an interesting Sunday night matchup. Cincy can get back in AFC North race but needs to get on a roll. Joe Burrow has been great wih Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both healthy and leads NFL’s No. 4 scoring offense. NYG just won at Seattle, but it’s hard to see Daniel Jones outpointing Burrow, especially with rookie star WR Malik Nabers (concussion) seeming very iffy to play.

Bills (3-2, -2 1/2) over @Jets (2-3), 23-20: Buffs and NYJ both have lost two straight (thank you, said the Dolphins), but that brews a desperation great for the Monday night stage. The Jets abruptly firing coach Robert Saleh doesn’t hurt. Nor does the controversy over whether Aaron Rodgers pulled the strings on that move. Nor does the fact Josh Allen is coming off a horrific 9-for-30 passing performance. Hey maybe this shoulda been our Game of the Week!? Jets benefit from having played last Thursday and have won two straight at home in series. But lean Buffalo’s offensive firepower and a big bounceback by Allen.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— Dolphins (2-3, next @Colts): The bye week is doubly well-timed for Miami, with injuries needing the mend time and Hurricane Milton hitting Florida’s western mid-section. Dolphins are 2-3 after a 15-10 win at New England that was both unimpressive and hugely needed, and there dares to be a bit of renewed hope now for two main reasons: 1). The Bills and Jets both losing two in a row makes the AFC East seem wide open, and 2). Fins have a winnable game (Indy) on deck and then QB Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion is due as soon as the following week at home vs. Arizona. Meantime Tyler Huntley remains the fill-in passer, although Skylar Thompson’s return to health from a rib injury makes that situation a tad fluid.

— Chiefs (5-0, next @49ers): Reigning champs have been less than dominant but still are one of only two unbeatens left (with Vikings) after handling Saints Monday night. Big trip to San Fran on deck is a once likely/still possible Super Bowl preview.

— Rams (1-4, next vs. Raiders): Three of L.A.’s losses including last week’s to Green Bay have been by a single score. Rams hope to have injured WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back by Week 8.

— Vikings (5-0, next vs. Lions): Minny stayed perfect by beating Jets in London and helping get Saleh fired, but Vikes face huge test next with visit by division rival Detroit.

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