Greg Cote's Week 5 NFL picks

A rough start to our 34th season of King Sport picks in the Miami Herald (to put it mildly), but we enjoyed a Week 4 uptick that we hope is the start of a sustained rally. The 9-7 mark outright got us to even for the year straight-up and the solid 9-6-1 against the spread (Chiefs at -7 pushed for the tie) got us close to even there. That included nailing a quartet of dogs-with-points in covers by the Vikings, Broncos, Jaguars and Cardinals. Missed going 11-4-2 ATS with two losses by 1 and a 1/2 point. Let’s heat up, baby! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Buccaneers (+1 1/2) over @Falcons, 27-23.]

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Week 4: 9-7, .563 overall; 9-6-1, .600 vs. spread.

Season: 32-32, .500 overall; 30-32-2, .484 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 5 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BILLS (3-1) at TEXANS (3-1)

Line: BUF by 1.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 30-23.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Quick vote by the Game of the Week committee. Was tepid dissent in favor of Cowboys-Steelers, but this rather incredibly is the only Week 5 matchup between teams with winning records as parity slowly chokes the NFL. A great duel beyond the records, with C.J. Stroud 8-2 at home with a 107.2 passer rating in his young career, and Josh Allen having perhaps his best season and aching to rebound from that lopsided Sunday night loss in Baltimore. Bonus appetizer: Stefon Diggs vs. his former Bills. Buffalo will be missing suspended LB Von Miller but has stingy pass D to challenge Stroud. Texans will use run-first plan and expect to have RB Joe Mixon back from injury just in time. Bottom line? Faith in Josh Allen and a big bounceback performance by Buffs’ offense.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

RAIDERS (2-2) at BRONCOS (2-2)

Line: DEN by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: LV, 19-16.

TV: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Riding with the series trend. Series traaawwwk!” Raiders have beaten Broncos eight straight times overall, with Denver’s last win back in the Oakland days. Raiders also have won the past four trips to Mile High Stadium or whatever they’re calling it now. Beyond that recent history this pick goes on a gut feeling strong enough to override Vegas likely being without its best player on both offense (trade-bait Davante Adams) and defense (Maxx Crosby). Dubious personal policy: Never talk yourself out of a strong gut feeling, even when logic persists. Some of that feeling is that I trust Gardner Minshew right now more than I trust struggling rookie Bo Nix. (Yes I did. I just wrote the words ‘I trust Gardner Minshew.’ Heaven help me.) “Must admit I trust this pick like I trust a political ad,” admits U-Bird. “Gardner Minshaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 5:

Thursday night pick was Buccaneers (3-1, +1 1/2) over @Falcons (2-2), 27-23.

Vikings (4-0, -2 1/2) over Jets (2-2) in London, 20-16: Tally-ho as Roger Goodell’s obsession with snatching home games away from American fans continues. This time it’s Minnesota fans flying 4,000 miles to attend their Sunday “home game.” Londoners get a good one, at least, in NFL’s surprise-unbeaten Vikes vs. the ghost of Aaron Rodgers. Give NYJ a medium upset shot. Sam Darnold is the best QB in this game, not Rodgers, who will play with a sore knee. But Jets have best pass defense Darnold has faced — with a CB in Sauce Gardner up to the Justin Jefferson challenge.

@Bears (2-2, -4) over Panthers (1-3), 24-17: Rookie QB Caleb Williams is coming off his best game for Chitown and now faces a Carolina defense worst in the league allowing 32.3 points per game. Bears are 2-0 at home and Panthers are on a 2-8-1 skid against the spread as road dogs. But Cats tempted us plus-four as Andy Dalton faces yet another former team.

Ravens (2-2, -2 1/2) over @Bengals (1-3), 31-28: Baltimore has won two straight in this AFC North grudge after Cincy won four of previous five. Ravens routed Bills in marquee game last Sunday night but facing a desperate division rival should help Crows dodge letdown. Joe Burrow will do big numbers vs. beatable BAL pass D, while Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry do the same vs. a Bengals run D getting gouged for 145.5 yards per game. Cincy on a 3-1 run at home in series and another outright upset is majorly in play. Even more likely: Shootout!

Dolphins (1-3, +1) over @Patriots (1-3), 24-16: Upset! Sort of. A scintillating afternoon is likely in store as the NFL’s two lowest-scoring teams meet. First one to 10 wins? Based on points averages, this game’s over/under would be 24. No, seriously. At 65 degrees and clear, it will be a beautiful day up north for bad offense disguised as defensive dominance. Referring to this matchup as “offensive” would clearly be a pejorative. Tyler (Snoop) Huntley starts his second game as Miami’s fill-in QB while Pats are sticking with Jacoby Brissett while Drake Maye matures like a bottle of wine. Pass rusher Jaelan Phillips’ season-ending knee injury is big loss for Fins defense, but team could have RB Raheem Mostert back. Also, Odell Beckham Jr. finally is practicing and might be available soon, though Sunday seems unlikely. I like Miami for the mini-upset here even on a short week after that home abomination Monday vs. Tennessee. Huntley only was signed Sept. 16, and another week learning a complicated Dolphins offense will pay dividends. Snoop also is a run threat, a refreshing, welcome wrinkle. Fins have beaten Pats two straight times and six of past seven and that trend will continue. [Bonus: Two most lunatic rumors of week: 1). Dolphins should tank for Shedeur Sanders, courtesy dad-coach Deion Sanders and rapper Rick Ross; and 2). Tyreek Hill might be traded back to K.C.] Back to reality: Bet the “over” here, partly because it’s such a low bar to hurdle. I predict a 100-yard game for Hill after three straight subpar outings as Huntley parlays a NE pass D allowing 254 yards per game. Also see an outburst of three Miami TDs, assuming sloppy Dolphins have an epiphany of discipline and somehow keep the illegal-motion penalties under a couple of dozen.

@Commanders (3-1, -3) over Browns (1-3), 27-20: Rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels has the Washington offense percolating. I keep expecting the wheels to fall off (or at least wobble). Can Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s D make it happen? It will take that because, even though Comm’s defense is bottom 10 in points allowed, can’t trust Deshaun Watson to stay upright (19 sacks) and produce much.

@Jaguars (0-4, -3) over Colts (2-2), 27-23: Feels like an upset pick but oddsmakers say no. And they’re right. Trevor Lawrence and Jax are desperate as NFL’s last winless team and have owned Colts at home in this AFC South rivalry, winning nine straight meetings in north Florida. Indy QB Anthony Richardson is iffy but Joe Flacco is a fine backup. Bigger concern for Nags is that RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) seems likelier to sit out.

49ers (2-2, -7 1/2) over Cardinals (1-3), 38-16: Week 5’s biggest point spread in parity-drenched NFL. Would be a bunch bigger if Niners were even close to healthy, although getting Deebo Samuel back is huge. San Fran is 2-0 at home and has won four straight over Arizona by a combined 88-point margin. Sniffing a rout here as well. Fred Warner-led defense will force a couple of Zona turnovers, and Jordan Mason will gallop all over Cardbirds’ bottom-five run defense.

Packers (2-2, -3) over @Rams (1-3), 24-18: Jordan Love threw three picks last week in his return from a knee injury but won’t face as big a test here as he did vs. Minnesota. Rams offense is struggling without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and the defense has really fallen off post-Aaron Donald. Gee Bees have won past four meetings and with a return to form by Love should make it five.

@Seahawks (3-1, -6 1/2) over Giants (1-3), 24-20: Seattle is 2-0 at home and should win again, but the point spread feels chubby. Big factor here that NYG rookie star receiver Malik Nabers is entwined in league’s concussion protocol and his availability Sunday was unknowable as of this pick on Thursday afternoon. Giants played last Thursday and Seahawks Monday night, so Biggies own sizable prep-rest edge. And Seattle’s defense is banged up. I’ll chance G-Men with points, with digits crossed that Nabers will be cleared to play.

Cowboys (2-2, +2 1/2) over @Steelers (3-1), 23-20: Upset! Tasty matchup for prime-time Sunday is our GOTW first alternate, with two historic franchises in their first meeting since 2020. Teams have combined 15 Super Bowl appearances and faced each other in the title game in 1975, ‘78 and ‘95. The latter was Dallas’ last SB; Pittsburgh last made it in 2010. As for Sunday, Justin Fields is looking better and better for Pitt and faces a depleted ‘Boys D with DeMarcus Lawrence out and Micah Parsons seeming doubtful. But Dallas will be rested after playing last Thursday. Steelers have strong pass-D, but I’ll saddle up Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to outscore a subpar Pitt offense.

@Chiefs (4-0, -5) over Saints (2-2), 21-17: Monday night stage finds champ Chiefs unbeaten but less than dominant with four wins by a single score each and combined 20 points. Now Patrick Mahomes is without top WR Rashee Rice, so expect heavy doses of Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce, who finally looked himself last week with 89 yards on seven catches. See N’Awlins’ sixth-ranked scoring defense keeping this inside the bet-line for another close K.C. win.

OFF THIS WEEK

— Chargers (2-2, next @Broncos): Coming off a one-score loss to champion Chiefs, Jim Harbaugh has turned QB Justin Herbert into a marginal fantasy starter but has Bolts competitive and the early NFL leader in scoring defense.

— Eagles (2-2, next vs. Browns): Philly is an early-season disappointment, despite RB Saquon Barkley as a rousing addition. Its two wins are by five and three points and Birds are coming off a 17-point spanking at Tampa Bay.

— Lions (3-1, next @Cowboys): Detroit is coming off a big Monday win over Seattle and living up to large expectations thus far. Visit to Dallas on deck could have Game of the week vibes.

— Titans (1-3, next vs. Colts): Tennessee is bad even with Monday’s rout-win at QB-disheveled Miami. Speaking of which, Titans hope and expect Will Levis (shoulder) to be ready for Indy next week.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]