Sam Farmer's Week 5 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 8-8 (.500); season 35-29 (.547). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-8 (.500); season 32-31-1 (.508). Times Pacific. OFF: Chargers, Lions, Eagles, Titans.

BUCCANEERS (3-1) AT FALCONS (2-2)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Falcons by 1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Falcons are coming off a win over New Orleans and are starting to pick up some momentum. The Buccaneers are banged up, especially along the offensive line. Go with the home team.

Pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21

JETS (2-2) at VIKINGS (4-0)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Sam Darnold has played better than most anyone could have anticipated, but this is going to be a test against that Jets defense. Still, the Jets had a big letdown last week and are on the road.

Pick: Vikings 21, Jets 18

BROWNS (1-3) AT COMMANDERS (3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

Defense was supposed to be the strong suit for the Browns, but that hasn't been enough to carry them. Jayden Daniels is a problem for defenses and has discovered Terry McLaurin.

Pick: Commanders 27, Browns 20

BILLS (3-1) AT TEXANS (3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Even though Sean McDermott has a great record in the immediate aftermath of losses, the Bills have a lot of injuries on defense. C.J. Stroud and his corps of receivers can take advantage of that.

Pick: Texans 27, Bills 23

PANTHERS (1-3) AT BEARS (2-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bears by 3 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Although they have a rookie quarterback who is smoothing the wrinkles in his game, the Bears are getting it done defensively. The Panthers are somewhat better with Andy Dalton but still bad.

Pick: Bears 24, Panthers 17

RAVENS (2-2) AT BENGALS (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Baltimore is figuring how to use Derrick Henry, even though Lamar Jackson is primarily in shotgun. That will allow the Ravens to dictate the pace in this AFC North showdown. Did a win get the Bengals on track?

Pick: Ravens 28, Bengals 24

COLTS (2-2) AT JAGUARS (0-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Jaguars are winless, but they've been close in three of their four losses. Trevor Lawrence has to break through at some point. The Colts have won two in a row but are due for a letdown.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Colts 20

DOLPHINS (1-3) AT PATRIOTS (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 1 1/2. O/U: 35 1/2.

The Patriots got smoked by San Francisco, and the Dolphins got smoked by Tennessee. With a healthy quarterback, Miami has the talent to beat anyone — but quarterback is a liability at this point.

Pick: Patriots 16, Dolphins 13

RAIDERS (2-2) AT BRONCOS (2-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 35 1/2.

Denver's defense has been on fire, holding Tampa Bay to seven and the Jets to nine — both on the road. The Raiders have alternated wins and losses, and has some dissension in their ranks.

Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17

CARDINALS (1-3) AT 49ERS (2-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 7 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Cardinals were embarrassed by the Commanders last Sunday, the first time they've been blown out this season. They could bounce back a bit against the 49ers, but not enough.

Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 27

PACKERS (2-2) AT RAMS (1-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Packers fell just short in a loss to Minnesota. The Rams are missing a ton of pieces and their secondary is getting picked apart. Matthew Stafford will keep it close but Green Bay pulls away down the stretch.

Pick: Packers 27, Rams 21

GIANTS (1-3) AT SEAHAWKS (3-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Seahawks hung in against Detroit with some defenders down. Seattle should be getting healthier, and the Giants could be missing rookie receiver sensation Malik Nabers. This could get out of hand quickly.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 10

COWBOYS (2-2) at STEELERS (3-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

A defensive battle. The Steelers can make the Cowboys one-dimensional by shutting down the run. Hard to heap too many expectations on the shoulders of Justin Fields, but the Steelers hold on.

Pick: Steelers 20, Cowboys 16

SAINTS (2-2) AT CHIEFS (4-0)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Chiefs haven't blown out anyone, but they're getting the job done on defense. New Orleans should keep this close, especially with that defense, but give the edge to the defending champions.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Saints 21