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Fantasy Football Week 4: Start and Sit

Eddie Brown, The San Diego Union-Tribune on

Published in Football

Here’s a look back at Week 3’s action and fantasy advice for the week ahead:

WEEK 3 RECAP

— Jets 24, Patriots 3: Tight end Tyler Conklin has played at least 90 percent of New York’s snaps in every game this season, and it finally paid off against New England — he had five receptions (six targets) for 93 yards. Aaron Rodgers has a history of making tight ends relevant in fantasy, which means Conklin is a streaming option when the matchup is right.

— Giants 21, Browns 15: Dynamic rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers had another big game with eight receptions (12 targets) for 78 yards and two touchdowns at Cleveland. Beleaguered QB Daniel Jones has targeted Nabers 30(!) times the last two weeks and there’s no real reason that won’t continue. Nabers is the overall WR2 in standard formats (WR1 in PPR) through his first three weeks in the NFL.

— Packers 30, Titans 14: Have to hand it to Malik Willis. Willis hasn’t only helped Green Bay win the last two games without Jordan Love, he’s the overall QB9 the last two weeks with an average of 19.2 points (based on FantasyPros scoring).

— Colts 21, Bears 16: D’Andre Swift is averaging 1.8 yards per carry more than I am this season, so it wasn’t a surprise to see Chicago spread the wealth at Indy. Roschon Johnson produced 62 yards on 12 touches compared to Swift’s 42 yards on 15 touches. If Swift doesn’t turn things around soon, Johnson or Khalil Herbert could potentially swoop in and relieve him of his early-down duties.

— Vikings 34, Texans 7: Minnesota’s defense is tops in fantasy through three weeks — averaging 16 points per game — and it deserves to be universally rostered. Brian Flores’ unit has essentially shutdown the 49ers and Texans the last two games. What more do you need? It’s still available in a ridiculous 61 percent of ESPN leagues and 29 percent of leagues on Yahoo.

— Eagles 15, Saints 12: DeVonta Smith suffered a helmet-to-helmet hit at New Orleans and was ruled out with a concussion. There’s a chance Philadelphia will be without both Smith and A.J. Brown (hamstring) against the Buccaneers. If so, the main beneficiary of those targets will be Dallas Goedert (and possibly Saquon Barkley). Goedert had 10 receptions for 170 yards (both career-highs) against the Saints.

— Steelers 20, Chargers 10: Justin Fields has led Pittsburgh to a 3-0 start, so I’m thinking Russell Wilson will continue to hold the clipboard even when he’s healthy. It’s clear Fields has grown as a passer, but it’s his rushing upside that gives him QB1 potential every week he’s under center.

— Broncos 26, Buccaneers 7: Rookie running back Bucky Irving actually had more carries (9-to-6) and touches (12-to-11) than Rachaad White in a surprising loss to Denver, while remaining the more explosive option. It’s becoming more likely with the passing of each game that Irving becomes the Bucs’ primary early-down tailback at some point this season, with White potentially relegated to passing downs.

— Panthers 36, Raiders 22: Zamir White’s touches have decreased in every game and he’s simply not getting the job done, while being vultured weekly by Alexander Mattison.

— Seahawks 24, Dolphins 3: I understand if you plan on avoiding Miami players like the plague in fantasy going forward. However, remember almost no one has the ceiling of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane is right behind him. Both can do a lot of damage with minimal touches, regardless who their quarterback is. Someone has already dropped Jaylen Waddle in one of my leagues and I’ve already put a waiver claim in. I trust Mike McDaniel’s keen offensive mind to figure out a way to move the football and put up more than three points.

— Ravens 28, Cowboys 25: Dallas’ vaunted defense has allowed 464 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in the past two games, with almost half of those yards coming before contact.

— Rams 27, 49ers 24: I wrote last week if you watched the Super Bowl, you knew what Jauan Jennings was capable of. Well, I’m not sure even I believed he was capable of 11 receptions for 175 yards and three TDs against L.A. Jennings has WR3/flex upside until at least San Francisco’s Avengers assemble again, i.e. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are all healthy.

— Lions 20, Cardinals 13: Second-year receiver Michael Wilson actually played one more snap, ran one fewer route and received two fewer targets than Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson finished with a game-high eight receptions and matched Harrison’s 64 receiving yards. The former third-rounder is talented and could have some pretty big games in his future if defenses focus most of their attention on Harrison and Trey McBride.

— Chiefs 22, Falcons 17: How’d Kansas City cope without angry runner Isiah Pacheco? Undrafted rookie Carson Steele led the champ’s two-man rotation with 17 carries for 72 yards. Steele played the majority of snaps on early downs, at the goal line and in short-yardage situations with Samaje Perine contributing 40 total yards on nine touches (three receptions) as the receiving-down back. We’ll see if Kareem Hunt or Keaontay Ingram alter this in anyway against the Chargers this week.

— Bills 47, Jaguars 10: Tight end Brenton Strange — the overall No. 61 pick in the 2023 NFL draft — caught Jacksonville’s only TD, and has played well in Evan Engram’s absence. Engram suffered a similar hamstring injury in 2018, also during warm-ups, and missed two games, so it’s possible he returns this week after missing the last two contests. However, he is six years older and Father Time only complicates these sort of things as you age.

— Commanders 38, Bengals 33: No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels has scored at least 28 fantasy points in two of his first three professional games, and he’s the overall QB2 (barely behind Josh Allen) through three weeks. Daniels is already an obvious starter.

Feel free to hit me up @UTEddieBrown on X, formerly known as Twitter, with any specific lineup questions I don’t cover in my posts.

Here’s my best bets for Week 4:

DALLAS AT N.Y. GIANTS

— Obvious starters: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Dak Prescott (DAL), Jake Ferguson (DAL), Malik Nabers (NYG).

— Who to start: The Cowboys D/ST have struggled the last two weeks, but face an offense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Devin Singletary (NYG) is the overall RB19 in standard formats (RB17 in PPR) and faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Daniel Jones (NYG) deserves streaming consideration against a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

— Who to sit: It’s hard to consider Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) anything more than TD-dependent with only 12 touches for 44 yards in the last two games. Brandin Cooks (DAL) is a TD-dependent option with only four receptions (eight targets) for 35 yards in the last two games.

— Sleeper: The timeshare currently favors Rico Dowdle (DAL) with exactly 11 touches, and at least three receptions, in two straight games.

NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA

— Obvious starters: Alvin Kamara (NO), Chris Olave (NO), Bijan Robinson (ATL), Drake London (ATL), Kyle Pitts (ATL).

— Who to start: Derek Carr (NO) remains in the streaming conversation against a defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Darnell Mooney (ATL) maintains flex appeal as the overall WR34 in standard formats (WR35 in PPR) though three weeks.

— Who to sit: Rashid Shaheed (NO) remains a boom-or-bust option after failing to catch one of his five targets against the Eagles. Taysom Hill (NO) remains the quintessential boom-or-bust option with only 10 touches in his two games this season. Juwan Johnson (NO) hasn’t seen a target since Week 1. This is a difficult matchup to trust Kirk Cousins (ATL) anywhere outside of Superflex formats (Cousins is the overall QB24 through three weeks). Tyler Allgeier (ATL) remains TD-dependent with only 20 touches in three games.

— Sleeper: The Saints D/ST is the fifth-highest scoring defense in fantasy through three weeks after forcing seven turnovers and producing 11 sacks.

L.A. RAMS AT CHICAGO

— Obvious starters: Kyren Williams (LAR), DJ Moore (CHI).

— Who to start: Tutu Atwell (LAR) appears to be Stafford’s top target with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined, producing seven receptions for 141 yards on nine targets the last two games. Keenan Allen (CHI) maintains WR3/flex upside if he’s active (heel). D’Andre Swift (CHI) maintains flex appeal despite the terrible start with double-digit touches in every game this season and a positive matchup. Rome Odunze (CHI) has flex appeal against a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Cole Kmet (CHI) faces a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Caleb Williams (CHI) deserves streaming consideration against a defense that has allowed seven TD passes in three games, and is allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

— Who to sit: I’m fading Matthew Stafford (LAR) on the road against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Demarcus Robinson (LAR), Tyler Johnson (LAR) and Colby Parkinson (LAR) are all TD-dependent with mild usage in essentially two games without Kupp and/or Nacua. Khalil Herbert (CHI) is TD-dependent with only 10 touches in three games.

— Sleeper: Roschon Johnson (CHI) received 12 touches (four receptions) in his 2024 debut at Indy and faces a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.

MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY

— Obvious starters: Justin Jefferson (MIN), Aaron Jones (MIN), Josh Jacobs (GB).

— Who to start: Jordan Addison (MIN) maintains WR3/flex upside if he’s active (ankle). I’m not sitting the Vikings D/ST until they give me a reason to. Only Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson have more fantasy points than Sam Darnold (MIN) at quarterback through three weeks. Jordan Love (GB) is an obvious starter if he’s active (knee), although I’d understand if you’d like to give him a week to test the MCL. Jayden Reed (GB) maintains WR3/flex upside if he’s active (calf and quadriceps). The Packers D/ST are the second-highest scoring defense in fantasy with at least two interceptions in every game this season.

— Who to sit: Ty Chandler (MIN) is a boom-or-bust option after rushing for 13 yards on seven carries against the Texans last week. Romeo Doubs (GB) and Dontayvion Wicks (GB) would both have flex appeal if Love is active. Christian Watson (GB) remains a boom-or-bust option with only seven targets in three games.

— Sleeper: Jalen Nailor (MIN) is the overall WR19 in standard formats (WR32 in PPR) through three weeks (mostly with Addison sidelined) and has a TD in every game this season.

PITTSBURGH AT INDIANAPOLIS

— Obvious starters: Steelers D/ST, Jonathan Taylor (IND), Michael Pittman Jr. (IND).

— Who to start: George Pickens (PIT) faces a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Najee Harris (PIT) maintains RB2/flex upside with at least 18 touches in every game this season. We’re due for a Justin Fields (PIT) “smash” game.

— Who to sit: Jaylen Warren (PIT) remains TD-dependent with fewer than five touches in two of three games. I’m fading Anthony Richardson (IND) against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Alec Pierce (IND) remains a boom-or-bust option with three-or-fewer targets in two of three games. I’m fading Josh Downs (IND) against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

— Sleeper: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) has exactly four receptions in each game this season and faces a defense that just got toasted by Cole Kmet for 10 receptions, 97 yards and a TD.

DENVER AT N.Y. JETS

— Obvious starters: Breece Hall (NYJ), Garrett Wilson (NYJ), Jets D/ST.

— Who to start: Courtland Sutton (DEN) maintains WR3/flex upside with at least 11 targets in two of three games. Aaron Rodgers (GB) is QB12 over the last two weeks. You could do worse than Tyler Conklin (NYJ) as a streaming option this week.

— Who to sit: I’m fading both Javonte Williams (DEN) and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) on the road against an elite defense. Bo Nix (DEN) only has value in the deepest Superflex formats until further notice. The Broncos D/ST has been solid so far, but I’m fading them on the road against a resurgent Rodgers. Both Mike Williams (NYJ) and Allen Lazard (NYJ) are TD-dependent against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

— Sleeper: Braelon Allen (NYJ) has flex appeal with the Jets being a heavy favorite at home.

PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY

 

— Obvious starters: Saquon Barkley (PHI), Jalen Hurts (PHI), Dallas Goedert (PHI), Mike Evans (TB), Chris Godwin (TB).

— Who to start: DeVonta Smith (PHI) is an obvious starter if he’s active (concussion), but it’s not looking good. Rachaad White (TB) maintains RB2/flex upside with at least five receptions in two of three games.

— Who to sit: It’s looking like A.J. Brown (PHI) will miss another week (hamstring). The Eagles D/ST only has four sacks in three games. Baker Mayfield (TB) is QB20 over the last two weeks. Bucky Irving (TB) didn’t practice Thursday with a hamstring injury. Cade Otton (TB) remains TD-dependent against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

— Sleeper: If both Brown and Smith are out, Jahan Dotson (PHI) would likely see increased volume (if you’re seeking a lottery ticket).

CINCINNATI AT CAROLINA

— Obvious starters: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), Joe Burrow (CIN).

— Who to start: Tee Higgins (CIN) has WR3/flex upside against a defense that has allowed five TD receptions to wide receivers in three games. Zack Moss (CIN) is the overall RB20 across all fantasy formats through three weeks. Mike Gesicki (CIN) is the overall TE8 in standard formats (TE6 in PPR) and faces a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Bengals D/ST deserves streaming consideration if you believe the “Red Rifle” will misfire this week. Diontae Johnson (CAR) maintains WR3/flex upside if he’s active (groin). Chuba Hubbard (CAR) is the RB10 in standard formats (RB9 in PPR) the last two weeks.

— Who to sit: I anticipate Andrei Iosivas (CIN) losing more targets to Higgins in his second game back. Andy Dalton (CAR) only has value in Superflex formats until we see if last week’s performance is repeatable. Miles Sanders (CAR) remains TD-dependent with Hubbard getting the lion’s share of touches in this backfield.

— Sleeper(s): Chase Brown (CIN) has flex appeal in deeper leagues against a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Xavier Legette (CAR) is expected to see a boost in snaps and targets while Adam Thielen (hamstring) is on injured reserve.

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON

— Obvious starters: Travis Etienne (JAC), C.J. Stroud (HOU), Nico Collins (HOU), Stefon Diggs (HOU).

— Who to start: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) is the overall WR27 in standard formats (WR32 in PPR) through three weeks. After he was non-existent the first two games this season, Christian Kirk (JAC) finished with eight receptions (10 targets) for 79 yards against the Bills last week. The Texans D/ST face an offense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Cam Akers (HOU) maintains flex appeal while the Texans deal with multiple injuries at running back.

— Who to sit: Let Evan Engram (JAC) test his hamstring in game action before you insert him back into your lineup. Gabe Davis (JAC) remains a boom-or-bust option (same as it ever was) with only eight receptions in three games. Brenton Strange (JAC) will be a premium streaming option if Engram misses another game. Joe Mixon (HOU) and Dameon Pierce (HOU) still haven’t practiced. Tank Dell (HOU) also looks like he’s unlikely to play (chest). I’m fading Dalton Schultz (HOU) against a defense that has only allowed seven receptions to tight ends in three games.

— Sleeper: Trevor Lawrence (JAC) faces a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA

— Obvious starters: Jayden Daniels (WAS), Terry McLaurin (WAS), Brian Robinson (WAS), Kyler Murray (ARI), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), James Conner (ARI).

— Who to start: Zach Ertz (WAS) is the overall TE12 in standard formats (TE9 in PPR) through three weeks. Trey McBride (ARI) is an obvious starter if he’s active (concussion).

— Who to sit: Austin Ekeler (WAS) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol. I’m fading a productive Cardinals D/ST at home against a red-hot Daniels.

— Sleeper(s): Both Michael Wilson (ARI) and Greg Dortch (ARI) have flex appeal against a defense that has surrendered nine TD receptions to wide receivers in three games.

NEW ENGLAND AT SAN FRANCISCO

— Obvious starters: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE), Brandon Aiyuk (SF), 49ers D/ST.

— Who to start: George Kittle (SF) is an obvious starter if he’s active (hamstring). Jordan Mason (SF) is the overall RB8 in standard formats (RB14 in PPR) through three weeks. Brock Purdy (SF) is the overall QB10 through three weeks with 842 passing yards and four TD passes against only one interception while completing 72.6 percent of his passes. On the strength of his explosion against the Rams, Jauan Jennings (SF) is the overall WR1 in standard formats (WR4 in PPR) through three weeks.

— Who to sit: Hunter Henry (NE) is dealing with an ankle injury and faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Antonio Gibson (NE) only has value in the deepest PPR formats. Ja’Lynn Polk (NE) remains a boom-or-bust option with only six targets in three games.

— Sleeper: DeMario Douglas (NE) faces a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

CLEVELAND AT LAS VEGAS

— Obvious starters: Amari Cooper (CLE), Browns D/ST, Davante Adams (LV), Brock Bowers (LV).

— Who to start: David Njoku (CLE) is an obvious starter if he’s active (ankle). Jerome Ford (CLE) is the overall RB28 in standard formats (RB24 in PPR) through three weeks. The Raiders just allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 319 yards and three TDs, so I guess Deshaun Watson (CLE) deserves streaming consideration if you’re in a pinch (shrug emoji). Jakobi Meyers (LV) has at least four receptions, 61 yards or a TD in three straight games to begin the season.

— Who to sit: D’Onta Foreman (CLE) is TD-dependent after producing five yards on two carries against the Giants last week. Gardner Minshew (LV) could be benched soon. I’m fading both Zamir White (LV) and Alexander Mattison (LV) with a difficult matchup.

— Sleeper: Jerry Jeudy (CLE) maintains flex appeal with at least six targets in every game this season against a defense that has allowed four TD receptions to wide receivers in three games.

KANSAS CITY AT L.A. CHARGERS

— Obvious starters: Patrick Mahomes (KC), Travis Kelce (KC), Rashee Rice (KC), J.K. Dobbins (LAC).

— Who to start: Carson Steele (KC) has flex appeal after receiving 18 touches against the Falcons with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. Quentin Johnston (LAC) has WR3/flex upside with three TD receptions in the last two games.

— Who to sit: Xavier Worthy (KC) is a boom-or-bust option against a defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Samaje Perine (KC) only has value in the deepest PPR formats. I’d only consider the Chiefs D/ST as a streaming option if Herbert is out. Coach Andy Reid said Kareem Hunt (KC) will rotate in against the Chargers, so let’s see how that goes. There are better options at QB this week with Justin Herbert (LAC) as banged up as he is. Ladd McConkey (LAC) remains TD-dependent with only five receptions (10 targets) in the last two games. Gus Edwards (LAC) remains TD-dependent against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Joshua Palmer (LAC) is TD-dependent if he’s active (elbow/calf). I’m fading a good Chargers D/ST against Mahomes with no homefield advantage.

— Sleeper: Either Hayden Hurst (LAC) or Will Dissley (LAC) could hit paydirt against a defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends — Hurst is currently nursing an Achilles injury so monitor that.

BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE

— Obvious starters: Josh Allen (BUF), James Cook (BUF), Dalton Kincaid (BUF), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Derrick Henry (BAL), Zay Flowers (BAL).

— Who to start: Khalil Shakir (BUF) is the overall WR17 across all fantasy formats through three weeks. Mark Andrews (BAL) and Isaiah Likely (BAL) face a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends — this matchup could playout similarly to the Ravens’ opener against the Chiefs, which ended up favoring Likely.

— Who to sit: Keon Coleman (BUF) remains a boom-or-bust option with only seven targets in three games. It’s probably best to fade the Bills D/ST and Ravens D/ST with these two QBs, but both are certainly capable of making big plays if you can’t find a suitable streaming option.

— Sleeper: Justice Hill (BAL) has produced at least 54 total yards in two of three games and faces a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.

TENNESSEE AT MIAMI

— Obvious starters: Tony Pollard (TEN), Tyreek Hill (MIA), De’Von Achane (MIA).

— Who to start: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) had seven receptions (12 targets) for 124 yards and a TD in a 28-27 win at Miami in Week 14 last season. The Titans D/ST deserve streaming consideration against whomever the Dolphins are lining up under center. If the Titans focus their attention on Hill, Jaylen Waddle (MIA) could still have a big day (especially in PPR) with a lot of work around the line of scrimmage. Raheem Mostert (MIA) has flex appeal if he’s active (chest). The Dolphins D/ST face an offense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

— Who to sit: Calvin Ridley (TEN) is a boom-or-bust option with only eight receptions in three games and facing a decent secondary. Jonnu Smith (MIA) faces a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

— Sleeper: Tyjae Spears (TEN) has flex appeal against a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.

SEATTLE AT DETROIT

— Obvious starters: DK Metcalf (SEA), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), David Montgomery (DET).

— Who to start: Kenneth Walker (SEA) is an obvious starter if he’s active (oblique). Tyler Lockett (SEA) maintains WR3/flex upside against a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Sam LaPorta (DET) is an obvious starter if he’s active (ankle). Jared Goff (DET) is a solid streaming option at home despite a matchup against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

— Who to sit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) is a boom-or-bust option despite the matchup with three-or-fewer targets in two of three games. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) would maintain RB2/flex upside despite a difficult matchup, with an average of 20 touches in the last two games, if Walker remains sidelined. Noah Fant (SEA) faces a defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. I’m fading the Seahawks D/ST on the road against a potent offense. Jameson Williams (DET) is a boom-or-bust option against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. There should be better streaming options available to you than the Lions D/ST this week.

— Sleeper: Geno Smith (SEA) is the overall QB12 through three weeks and this could be a high-scoring affair on Monday night.


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