Greg Cote's Week 4 NFL picks

Spent a long few days visiting Rock Bottom last week. Have no intention of returning. This is my 34th season of picks in the Herald so I won’t claim last week was my worst ever both straight up and vs. the betting number. But it’s way, way down there and, even in an infamously unpredictable season thus far, there is no excuse for it. I had Denver with the points at Tampa, just missed an exact-score on Ravens’ win in Dallas — but that was about it for the highlight reel. Leave it behind and expect a big bounce-back in Week 4! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Cowboys (1-2, -6) over @Giants (1-2), 27-20.]

———

Week 3: 6-10, .375 overall; 6-10, .375 vs. spread.

Season: 23-25, .479 overall; 21-26-1, .448 vs. spread.

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

TITANS (0-3) at DOLPHINS (1-2)

Line: MIA by 1.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 19-16.

TV: 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN.

The Dolphins’ starting QB situation as of Thursday afternoon, at least publicly: Skylar Thompson (ribs) might still be ready, otherwise it’s Tyler Huntley or the guy who replaced the injured Thompson last week, Tim Boyle. Now the Dolphins’ QB situation in reality: Be shocked if Thompson is able to play, and be shocked if Huntley doesn’t get the start ahead of Boyle. There you have the drama in an otherwise moribund Monday matchup as life beyond Tua Tagovailoa goes on with his concussion making Miami’s season wobble. This near-pick-‘em game gives an edge to Dolphins for the home field and more so because the Titans’ offense stinks. It’s a low bar to hurdle. Fins won’t need 30 points to win. Maybe not even 20. Tennessee is one of only three remaining winless teams (Bengals, Jags) for good reasons. Titans QB Will Levis is bad, and their minus-7 turnover ratio reminds they will likely find a way to gift Miami the win. What Tennessee does do well is defend the run, so Huntley might will have to do more than hand off. The Dolphins can win without Tagovailoa. Although we may need to rethink that if they can’t win this game without Tagovailoa.

GAME OF THE WEEK

BILLS (3-0) at RAVENS (1-2)

Line: BAL by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL 30-27.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

Calling the Bills a tempting underdog for an outright upset in this Sunday night gem of a matchup is beyond obvious. Here’s why: Scorchin’ hot Bills QB Josh Allen, an early NFL MVP fave, vs. a struggling Ravens pass defense ranked a dead-last 32nd (and by a lot) in yards allowed. If this game gets ugly in either direction, it’s more likely to in Buffs’ favor. So why do I like the Ravens? Bills coming off a short week and facing a BAL squad emboldened by a huge win in Dallas. How will Bills defense contain an awesome ground attack led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry? (It won’t.) Also, Baltimore has league’s best win percentage in prime time during past 10 seasons; Buffalo has the worst. Bills are one of five unbeaten teams left. All five play on the road this week. None plays a better opponent, in a more hostile environment, than Buffalo.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

RAMS (1-2) at BEARS (1-2)

Line: CHI by 3.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” bleats the Upset Bird. “Los Angeles Raawwk!” The Raawwks I mean Rams packed momentum for this trip after upsetting San Fran last week in a duel of injury-addled Californians. Matthew Stafford has won past two starts at Soldier Field and has made up for absence of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp by unleashing Kyren Williams in a ground attack now facing a mediocre Chicago run D. Rams’ pass rush should get going vs. a Bears front line that has already given up 13 Caleb Williams sacks. “Give me Kyren over Caleb,” notes U-Bird, “in this battle of Williaawwks!”

THE REST OF WEEK 4:

Thursday night pick was Cowboys (1-2, -6) over @Giants (1-2), 27-20.

@Falcons (1-2, -2 1/2) over Saints (2-1), 23-20: N’Awlins is on a 4-1 run in this NFC South rivalry and has won five of past six meetings in Atlanta — making it seem almost like the wrong team is favored here. But watch Falcons buck those trends and reclaim the home edge. Kirk Cousins last week became fourth-fastest QB to 40,000 career yards, and he will get help Sunday from Bijan Robinson vs. a Saints run defense pummeled by Saquon Barkley last week.

@Packers (2-1, -3) over Vikings (3-0), 24-23: NFC North rivals have split season series each of past four years, and here comes another tough call. Gee Bees QB Jordan Love was trending all week to return from knee injury, and this pick relies on it. Aaron Jones vs. ex-team spices matchup. So does Pack CB Jaire Alexander vs. Justin Jefferson. Pack pass pressure will bother Sam Darnold, and Love in his home debut would face beatable Vikes’ pass D. Hedge on Minny with points, though.

Steelers (3-0, -1 1/2) over @Colts (1-2), 24-16: Pittsburgh is winning with really good defense and solid game management by Justin Fields leading a run-first offense. All of that will play here. Pitt’s solid ground game will feast on Indy’s 31st-ranked run defense. And Colts QB Anthony Richardson will find it hard to stop being awful against this secondary. Steelers on an 8-1 run in this series and stay unbeaten against the spread.

@Jets (2-1, -7 1/2) over Broncos (1-2), 21-17: Drama! Aaron Rodgers is a big fan of Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who was Denver’s head coach until they fired him and his replacement, Sean Payton, ripped him publicly. Rodgers would love to beat Payton big. Payton wants his pass rush to have Rodgers on the ground and lead a big upset. Both defenses will dominate in a low-scoring game that makes the point spread look fat.

Eagles (2-1, -2) over @Buccaneers (2-1), 31-27: In last year’s playoffs Baker Mayfield went wild and the Bucs crushed the Eagles in a 32-9 wild-card rout in Tampa. Sunday, revenge-minded Philly returns the favor. Birds might again be without top WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Tampa’s run defense won’t have answers for bellcow RB Saquon Barkley and dual-threat Jalen Hurts. And Eagles’ defense is appreciably better than last year’s.

Bengals (0-3, -4 1/2) over @Panthers (1-2), 34-16: Panthers QB Andy Dalton, a hero in last week’s upset of Vegas after Bryce Young was benched, is facing his former Bengals ... again. Dalton has previously faced Cincy as a Cowboy, a Bear and a Saint, and is 2-1 with a 101 passer rating vs. his ex’s. But that fairy tale ends here. Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson-led pass rush will hound Dalton, and Joe Burrow will announce the start of his team’s long climb back into the AFC North hunt.

@Texans (2-1, -6) over Jaguars (0-3), 27-23: A winless start and a bad one for Trevor Lawrence finds a desperate Jax on this trip. T-Law has lost eight straight starts dating to last season, but the last win was vs. Houston. The away team has won five in a row in this division rivalry, and I see Jags at least keeping this one inside the betting number, especially with Texans likely sans RB Joe Mixon again.

@Cardinals (1-2, -3 1/2) over Commanders (2-1), 30-27: Showcase game for two tier-1 rookies in Zona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washers QB Jayden Daniels. And for me the toughest Week 4 game to pick. Comms have won three of past four over Cardbirds including last season. But Kyler Murray and Harrison should feast sumptuously on Washington’s 31st-ranked pass defense in a high-scoring affair.

@49ers (1-2, -10) over Patriots (1-2), 27-9: The only two previous spreads of 9-plus points this parity-soaked season have seen the dogs win outright in both. Not this time. San Fran is wracked by injuries — led by Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel still out — but remains second favorite to win Super Bowl at most sportsbooks. And Niners have the firepower left to overwhelm the Patriots all over the field. TE George Kittle could return, but either way Brock Purdy will hit big against Pats’ subpar pass D

@Raiders (1-2, -2) over Browns (1-2), 19-16: Both coming off bad losses (CLE to the Giants, LV to Carolina) and both beset by QB woes. Gardner Minshew was benched last week, remains Raiders’ starter but is playing for his job. Deshaun Watson has been abysmal but Earthtones are stuck with him and his albatross contract. Watson has been sacked a league-high 16 times; Minshew gets no help from a league-worst run game. Vegas defensive star Maxx Crosby (ankle) might not play, but ride anxiously with home team anyway.

Chiefs (3-0, -7) over @Chargers (2-1), 23-17: Justin Herbert (ankle) was iffy to play as of Thursday, weighing heavy on which side of the point spread to like. Andy Reid is 19-6 vs. this foe including five straight, but Chiefs have won past four road trips in this series by a combined 11 points and are 3-0 this year by margins of 7, 1 and 5 points. Makes me like LAC with the points, especially with the run-first style Jim Harbaugh has brought. But I will like that a whole more if Herbert plays.

@Lions (2-1, -3 1/2) over Seahawks (3-0), 27-20: Monday stage could get an exciting nightcap here following what looks like a Dolphins-Titans snoozer in the MNF opener. Dan Campbell is 0-3 vs. Seahawks, who are on an 8-1 run in series including a 37-31 win in Motown last season. Makes an outright upset here tempting. Defense has been a big reason SEA is unbeaten, and Lions offense has yet to overly impress. Seattle also has NFL’s best record in prime time over past 10 seasons. But Lions on a 9-3 run as home faves and are easily best foe Hawks have yet faced.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]