Sam Farmer's Week 4 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 8-8 (.500); season 27-21 (.563). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-10 (.375); season 24-23-1 (.511). Times Pacific.

COWBOYS (1-2) at GIANTS (1-2)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Cowboys by 5½. O/U: 45½.

This is the best offensive line the Giants have had in nearly a decade. Not a great line but solid enough to protect Daniel Jones and push around a bad Cowboys run defense. Home team holds on.

Pick: Giants 23, Cowboys 21

RAMS (1-2) at BEARS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 2½. O/U: 40½.

The Rams are starting to get a little healthier, and their cobbled-together offensive line played well against the 49ers. That was a confidence boost. They're good enough to win this matchup.

Pick: Rams 24, Bears 21

VIKINGS (3-0) at PACKERS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 2½. O/U:43½.

Until they know who's starting at quarterback, the Vikings have to prepare for two different looks. That Brian Flores defense has looked really good, though, and the Vikings could pull off the road win.

Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 24

SAINTS (2-1) at FALCONS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 1½. O/U: 42½.

The Falcons are just six for 27 on third down so far. That's not going to cut it against New Orleans, even though the Saints were flat offensively in a loss to Philadelphia.

Pick: Saints 16, Falcons 13

BENGALS (0-3) at PANTHERS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 4½. O/U: 40½.

The Panthers exorcised some demons with their win last Sunday after making a quarterback change. The Bengals are a stronger team across the board, but this could be closer than some expect.

Pick: Bengals 27, Panthers 24

JAGUARS (0-3) at TEXANS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 6½. O/U: 45½.

The Texans have won 10 of the last 12 meetings with the Jaguars, and Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has lost his last eight starts. Both teams are coming off lopsided defeats.

Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17

STEELERS (3-0) at COLTS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 1½. O/U: 39½.

Pittsburgh's defense is playing great, and Justin Fields is protecting the football and getting the job done. He's due for a bit of a letdown game, but unlikely to take a step backward here.

Pick: Steelers 17, Colts 10

BRONCOS (1-2) at JETS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jets by 7½. O/U: 38½.

The Broncos pulled off a stunner at Tampa Bay and would be hard-pressed to do that two weeks in a row. Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self last week, and the Jets defense is playing well.

Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17

EAGLES (2-1) at BUCCANEERS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 2½. O/U: 44½.

The Buccaneers are hurting on defense, and that could mean a big game for Saquon Barkley. Baker Mayfield hasn't been the same since Tampa Bay lost right tackle Luke Goedeke to a concussion.

Pick: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23

COMMANDERS (2-1) at CARDINALS (1-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 3½. O/U: 50½.

Jayden Daniels looked good on Monday night and Washington's offense is improving by the week. That defense is still terrible, however, and could get torched in this matchup, especially with those vulnerable corners.

Pick: Cardinals 28, Commanders 21

PATRIOTS (1-2) at 49ERS (1-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 10. O/U: 39½.

The 49ers are steamed after losing at the Rams. New England's offense is terrible, with no real receivers and a flimsy offensive line. Jacoby Brissett is running for his life much of the time.

Pick: 49ers 30, Patriots 18

CHIEFS (3-0) at CHARGERS (2-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 8½. O/U: 39½.

The Chargers are going to be solid this season, but holding serve against the Chiefs — without suspended Derwin James — is a tall order. Andy Reid will take advantage of that defensive void in the middle of the field.

Pick: Chiefs 28, Chargers 21

BROWNS (1-2) at RAIDERS (1-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 1½. O/U: 37½.

The Las Vegas pass rush gets the edge. Deshaun Watson was sacked a career-high eight times last week. Could be a big day for Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, although the Raiders have lots of issues too.

Pick: Raiders 18, Browns 15

BILLS (3-0) at RAVENS (1-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 2½. O/U: 46½.

Josh Allen is an early MVP candidate and the Bills have been able to run when needed. The defense is banged up, and Baltimore might be able to take advantage of that but the undefeated visitors have the edge.

Pick: Bills 27, Ravens 23

TITANS (0-3) at DOLPHINS (1-2)

Monday, 4:30 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 1½. O/U: 36½.

This one is a coin flip. The Dolphins are on their third quarterback, and it's tough to win that way. The Titans haven't won a game, so it's not like they have a ton of experience to draw from. The QB matter is big.

Pick: Titans 17, Dolphins 13

SEAHAWKS (3-0) at LIONS (2-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Saints by 1½. O/U: 39½.

The Seahawks could get off to a 4-0 start, which not many people saw coming. Lions are vulnerable because of all their injuries. Still like Dan Campbell and Jared Goff finding a way to pull off a win at home.

Pick: Lions 28, Seahawks 27