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Matt Calkins: Here's why NFL playoff thoughts are premature for 3-0 Seahawks

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on

Published in Football

SEATTLE — If one were to lay out a schedule for a new coach replacing a potential Hall of Famer, this would be it.

If one were to hope for circumstances for a team in transition, these past three games for the Seahawks come straight from a genie’s lamp.

Winning in the NFL is an achievement regardless of the opponent’s skill or health, so credit Seattle for being one of four teams in the league to start 3-0. But the Seahawks still haven’t been tested. Their schedule thus far has had Olive Oil arms.

Seattle’s Week 1 win came against a Broncos team featuring Bo Nix making his first NFL start at quarterback. It showed. The former Oregon star revealed to the league what most Pac-12 buffs already knew — that he struggled to make anything resembling a horizontal pass. The rookie’s struggles (he finished with 138 yards and two interceptions on 42 throws) allowed the Seahawks to recover from their own offensive gaffes and pull out a 26-20 win. Denver is currently second-to-last in the NFL to win the Super Bowl per FanDuel at 500-to-1.

Seattle’s Week 2 win came against a Patriots team that finished 4-13 last year. It started a QB in Jacoby Brissett who’s thought to be a placeholder for Drake Maye, the third pick in last spring’s draft.

The Seahawks got an All-Pro-caliber performance from quarterback Geno Smith, along with a slew of first-class snags from receivers Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Yet they still needed overtime to beat a team that ran for 185 yards on them over 36 carries. The Patriots are currently fourth-to-last to win the Super Bowl per FanDuel at 300-to-1.

It looked as if Seattle was finally going to face a legitimate contender in Week 3 vs. the Dolphins. Miami reached the playoffs last season before falling to the Super Bowl-champ Kansas City Chiefs. But starting QB Tua Tagovailoa — the $212 million man — suffered a concussion in Week 2 and was ruled out against the Seahawks. His absence justified every penny of his salary.

The Dolphins’ offense was unrecognizable without Tua. It looked about as potent as Northwestern’s did a day earlier vs. the Huskies. Tyreek Hill, possibly the best receiver in football, was held to 40 yards on three catches, and Miami mustered just 205 yards total in Seattle’s 24-3 win. The Dolphins are 66-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, per Vegas Insider, and that is taking into account a potential midseason return for Tagovailoa.

This is not a prediction that the Seahawks — now two games ahead of all their NFC West brethren — are going to lose by three touchdowns to the Lions in Detroit next Monday. It’s not condemning them to a loss against the 49ers two Thursdays after that, or suggesting that coach Mike Macdonald’s instant success is a deepfake.

 

It’s not as if the Seahawks’ previous opponents can’t win. The Broncos took down Tampa Bay 26-7 on Sunday, and the Patriots opened the season with a victory over the Bengals while stifling Joe Burrow. Seattle didn’t bowl over three college teams. They beat a trio of rosters teeming with millionaires.

But the idea that Macdonald has fixed what was one of the most porous defenses in the league last season? The thought that these September wins are a harbinger of a playoff run? If folks are having those thoughts, they’re premature. Detroit could do quite a bit of damage next week.

Having said that, perhaps these stats will tide the 12s over until that showdown in the Motor City. The Seahawks are eighth in total offense at 344 yards per game, and third in passing offense at 246.7. More notably, they are second in total defense at 248.7 yards per game, and fourth in scoring defense at 14.3 points per game.

This is what the brass was looking for when it replaced Pete Carroll with Macdonald during the offseason. Plus, even if the Seahawks do start to struggle once they hit the meat of their schedule, they’ll have established enough of a foundation to recover thanks to these three wins.

Imagine if teams such as the Lions, Niners or Bills came first and all won by double digits. That could unravel this new-look team.

Instead, the Seahawks are unbeaten, even if they are untested. They’ve played mostly stellar defense, even if their opponents get a “D” in quality.

The Seahawks still haven’t proved they can knock off a playoff-caliber team. But they have proved themselves not to be taken lightly.

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©2024 The Seattle Times. Visit seattletimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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