Greg Cote's Thursday night NFL pick

Welcome to the NFL’s 105th season and the 34th year for our King Sport picks in the Miami Herald. This also marks the league’s 23rd season kicking things off with a prime-time Thursday night game. To lend perspective on how long that has been, Miami Hurricanes tight end Cam McCormick was a college freshman when the NFL began Thursday starts. If you have followed our picks for many years, welcome back! To newbies, welcome aboard. We take our picks seriously but have fun along the way. So let’s launch!

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 1 THURSDAY PICK

RAVENS (0-0) at CHIEFS (0-0)

Line: KC by 3.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 23-20. Upset!

TV: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, NBC/Peacock.

(“Aaawwwk!” as the Upset Bird might say. But he only works Fridays.) Chiefs topped Ravens, 17-10, in last year’s AFC championship game, and the rematch is Game of the Week-tasty to kick off 2024. Both teams had uninspiring preseasons (Chiefs 0-2, Crows 1-2), but pay that no never mind, as Gramps used to say. There’s no mistaking that these are the AFC powers the rest of the conference, including Miami, will be chasing all season. Kansas City seeks to win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, but there’s a reason that has never happened. And Baltimore travels to this opener owning the revenge incentive. Several notable sportsbooks have dropped Chiefs to -2.5 with a wave of $ on BAL as of Wednesday. Reasons for that, too. Since taking over as Ravens coach in 2008 John Harbaugh is 12-4 straight-up and against the spread in Week 1, including 6-1 since 2017. Baltimore’s defense last year was the first ever to lead the NFL in fewest points allowed, most sacks and most takeaways in the same season. That D has lost a few players but remains strong. And the offense led by two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson will be the perfect palette for new RB Derrick Henry to prove he’s far from washed at age 30. It means an upset in the air — or rather on the ground. Henry in his career vs. K.C.: Six games, 672 yards rushing, 6.7 per carry, eight touchdowns. Watch Henry and a vaunted Baltimore ground game keep Patrick Mahomes on the Arrowhead sideline more than on the field. Henry was withheld from preseason play; this will be an unleashing.

[Note: Betting line courtesy ESPNBet as of midday Wednesday.]