Sam Farmer's Week 1 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last season's record 162-110 (.596). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer had predicted, his record against the spread would have been 130-135-7 (.491). Team records from last season. All times Pacific.

RAVENS (13-4) at CHIEFS (11-6)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3. O/U: 46 1/2

Patrick Mahomes might have his best collection of receivers, and that will more than offset the step back for Kansas City on defense. Derrick Henry gives Baltimore another boost. Close game.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

PACKERS (9-8) VS. EAGLES (11-6)

Friday in Brazil, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Saquon Barkley is a huge addition to the Eagles, and adding Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator makes a difference too. Packers figure to be a work in progress early on.

Pick: Eagles 31, Packers 24

STEELERS (10-7) AT FALCONS (7-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Falcons have some potent weapons on offense and their safety tandem could be scary. Stopping the run won't be easy against the Steelers. As for Pittsburgh's quarterback situation, we'll see.

Pick: Falcons 24, Steelers 20

CARDINALS (4-13) AT BILLS (11-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 6 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Bills have a lot to prove but Josh Allen is up to the challenge. They should be able to take care of business at home against the improved but not-quite-there Cardinals, who play hard for Jonathan Gannon.

Pick: Bills 28, Cardinals 21

TITANS (6-11) AT BEARS (7-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is coming into a really good situation, especially with those receivers. He'll make some mistakes but Bears can score. Titans could struggle mightily this season.

Pick: Bears 27, Titans 17

PATRIOTS (4-13) AT BENGALS (9-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 7 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

These are not the Patriots of old. Cincinnati should win this handily. The Bengals pass rush will create all sorts of problems for New England, and Joe Burrow & Co. should be fine.

Pick: Bengals 31, Patriots 13

TEXANS (10-7) AT COLTS (9-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Lots of hype for Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who does not have much NFL experience. C.J. Stroud is coming off a historic season. Houston could cool a bit this year, but still a solid team.

Pick: Texans 23, Colts 20

JAGUARS (9-8) AT DOLPHINS (11-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Not a lot of buzz about Jacksonville, but that's a talented team that could do some damage. The Dolphins have the offense and need a defense to match. Could be an exciting game.

Pick: Jaguars 31, Dolphins 28

PANTHERS (2-15) AT SAINTS (9-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 3 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Saints are better and they're at home. Hard to know what to expect from the Panthers and their new coach. Carolina needs to improve in so many areas after last year, it's dicey to take them in this matchup.

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 17

VIKINGS (7-10) AT GIANTS (6-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 1 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Daniel Jones is under pressure and those Giants receivers are promising but untested. Defensively they're pretty good. Maybe Sam Arnold gets it done, but I like the home team.

Pick: Giants 24, Vikings 20

RAIDERS (8-9) AT CHARGERS (5-12)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 40 1/2.

Jim Harbaugh's team is going to be tougher than last season and will be more balanced with an enhanced ground game. Which receiver will step up? Raiders are OK at quarterback but working out kinks.

Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 18

BRONCOS (8-9) AT SEAHAWKS (9-8)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 5 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Tough place for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix to make his NFL debut, even though the Seahawks aren't the group they once were. Seattle has the firepower to move the ball this season.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Broncos 21

COWBOYS (12-5) AT BROWNS (11-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U:41 1/2.

Cleveland's defense leads the way for the Browns, and Deshaun Watson is better than he's been of late. Doesn't help the Cowboys that CeeDee Lamb missed camp, and losing corner DaRon Bland is big.

Pick: Browns 27, Cowboys 24

COMMANDERS (4-13) AT BUCCANEERS (9-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bucanners by 3 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Commanders are going to be better than they've been, although Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles has a great record against rookie quarterbacks. Tampa Bay has a lot of confidence in Baker Mayfield.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 20

RAMS (10-7) AT LIONS (12-5)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3 1/2 O/U: 51 1/2.

Energy should be supercharged for this rematch, and both teams figure to be serious playoff contenders. Matthew Stafford will be sharp, but Rams defense will need time to come together without Aaron Donald.

Pick: Lions 28, Rams 24

JETS (7-10) AT 49ERS (12-5)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 4 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Aaron Rodgers should have a far more positive experience in this opener, but making a cross-country trip against San Francisco's defense is not easy chore. Defensive struggle.

Pick: 49ers 21, Jets 16